The Balance of Power - Part Two

In part one we examined the US strategy (if you can call it that) as regards The Middle East. We described how The US is in the process of moving assets to the Russia Indo-China arena's to balance the growing power emanating from this area. If someone thinks the Russians are a spent force its time to re-evaluate that assumption. The more Russia has its back to the wall, the more dangerous it becomes. But that is a subject for another day. Where does Israel fit into this constantly changing picture?

The personal vendetta between kings Bibi and Barack might make great headline news on CNN, but frankly, the verbal animosity between the two is marginal to the diverging interests of both sides. As the US slowly contrives to create a "balance" in the region, Israel finds itself in a world of sectarian Islamic violence and changing political alliances. The Americans appear confused as to who the greater danger to their interests are, ISIS or Iran. Iran is taking full advantage of the situation. Netanyahu said it all in his speech to congress. Unfortunately nobody in a decision making capacity is listening. Iran, the Shiite Caliphate now controls Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. They have taken Yemen and are well on their way to controlling most of Iraq.

The ISIS mania is spreading like a wildfire. Every small victory over this Sunni Caliphate is greeted with new gains across the region. A short while ago ISIS was a small marginal group of lunatics in Syria. Today they have footprints in Iraq, Tunisia, Yemen, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Sunni Arab leaders are watching these developments with alarm. The double threat of Iranian nuclear capability and ISIS is making for strange new bedfellows. From an American point of view, they can drink their oil. So who are they turning to? Believe it or not...Israel. Without Israel, neither King Abdullah of Jordan or Abbas, president of the non-existent Palestinian entity, would last very long. Egypt and Israel have created a powerful alliance. The seven Arab kingdoms of the Persian Gulf are quietly talking to Israel and a little known fact is the growing relationship between Israel and Nigeria (note how Nigeria votes at the UN).

These positive developments are tempered by multiple threats from Iranian satellites, Hizbollah in Lebanon/Golan Heights and Hamas in Gaza. No one seems worried about Gaza these days and it is interesting to see how Egypt is choking the life out of the so-called "innocent Palestinian victims" and nobody seems to care. Least of all the morality policemen Kerry and Obama. Hizbollah have their hands full with Syria and cannot afford to open another front at present. However their tens of thousands of missiles are still a threat not to be taken lightly. A larger threat to Israel is the potential infiltration of ISIS and/or Iranian players into the Arab populations of Judea and Samaria.

On a personal note, when I look back at the incompetent Obama years (anybody remember the Arab Spring?), Israel has not done too badly. The economy and the population continue to grow, the western world is getting a dose of Jihad, there is zero possibility of a two state solution regardless of who governs Israel (the issue is only one of tactics) and most important, Israel remains a vibrant democracy in a sea of madness.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty ― Winston S. Churchill 

A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on  ― William S. Burroughs

I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them ― Thomas Jefferson       

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. New reports have emerged on Washington and Tehran's "special understanding" on operations against Islamic State militants in Iraq. The details emerge as U.S. and Iraqi officials warn that actions should be carefully conducted to avoid worsening sectarian tension. The U.S.-led coalition has not conducted airstrikes to coordinate with Iraq's latest offensive in Sunni-dominated Salah al-Din province. Iran is leading this offensive. COMMENT: BO cannot make up his mind who the enemy is. Even Peter Pan knew not to smile at a crocodile. Mr President FYI they are all crocodiles, and they are all smiling at you.

2.  The United Arab Emirates has recalled its ambassador to Sweden, an unnamed Swedish government official said March 18, The Daily Star reported. The source did not disclose why the United Arab Emirates made the move. Last week, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador to Sweden after calling Stockholm's criticism of the Saudi human rights record an interference in its internal affairs. COMMENT: The Swedes call this their Progressive foreign policy. The Swedish attempt to sell human rights to Islam could be termed laughable if it wasn't so pathetic. 

3.Egypt evidently understands that it is no longer regarded by the US as a strategic player in the region. To be fair, the US is trying to remove itself from the region. In the last 3 weeks Egypt has negotiated a missile deal with Russia, purchased grain from Russia and allowed BP to initiate a gas project on condition the joint venture partner is a Russian company. COMMENT: Egypt is also negotiating for the purchase of nuclear technology and spy satellites from the Russians. This appears to be a major policy change.

4.Nigerian Islamic terror group Boko Haram swears formal allegiance to ISIS and posts an oath on Twitter, The Associated Press reports. COMMENT: Population of Nigeria is 50% Muslim. 38% are Sunni and 12% Shia. The other 50% are Christians. COMMENT: Let the games begin! 

5. China will continue to seek more economic and diplomatic cooperation with Russia despite the sanctions Moscow faces over its involvement in the Ukraine crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, France24 reported March 8. The two countries will try to grow bilateral trade to $100 billion by improving financial and energy ties. Other initiatives aimed at improving relations between the countries include constructing a natural gas pipeline, high-speed rail lines and economic development projects. COMMENT: The Chinese couldn't give two hoots about the Ukraine.

6.The People of Israel have spoken loudly and clearly. David Horovitz: Unloved by the Obama administration, relentlessly criticized by ostensibly friendly European governments, attacked day after day by substantial sections of the Hebrew media. Netanyahu did not just scrape back into office. He swept his critics aside and he trounced his rivals." COMMENT: Plainly Israeli's in the vast majority distrust Obama more than they distrust Bibi. As for the Israeli left.....like the price of oil...a collapsing commodity. 

7.(Bloomberg) -- A decision by Whiting Petroleum Corp., the largest producer in North Dakota’s Bakken shale basin, to put itself up for sale looks to be the first tremor in a potential wave of consolidation as $50-a-barrel prices undercut companies with heavy debt and high costs. COMMENT: Its difficult to understand why so many analysts believe that US interest rates will rise this year. The US dollar might continue to rise since the US is the strongest economy amongst an exhausted cluster of punch drunk competitors. BTW all of them rushing to weaken their own currencies...but raise US rates?

In spite of warnings, nothing much happens until the status quo becomes more painful than change - Laurence J. Peter

The hardest thing to believe when you're young is that people will fight to stay in a rut, but not to get out of it - Ellen Glasgow

The Balance of Power - Part One

The United States under Obama no longer regards Israel as the super strategic ally that it did once upon a time. This is part of a long term US strategy that has been playing out over many years, even decades. On the face of it the strategy looks logical from an American point of view. However, like most geopolitical strategies they are usually flawed by the law of unintended consequences. This one especially. To understand that speeches by Netanyahu or Obama have zero effect on strategy we have to start long before either of them sermonized a word. Quite frankly, if a speech is all that it takes to shred a relationship, then that relationship has long ago been shredded.

It might come as a surprise to some, but this so-called "We have always stood behind you" relationship only began quite recently. In the fifties, Israel's weapons were supplied by Russia via Czechoslovakia. Up until 1967 weaponry was provided by France. The survival of Israel was irrelevant to the US, neither here nor there. After 1967, the French stepped away and the Russians resupplied Syria and Egypt with arms. A Russian port in Egypt threatened the US Sixth Fleet. The cold war was at its peak and the US needed to balance Soviet intentions. Of course, who better than little Israel, desperate to survive and who could be easily controlled. So began the age of American aid to Israel and the "relationship" was upgraded.

By 1974 US aid was 20% of Israel's GDP. (By comparison today it is 1%). The end of this romance arrived quietly with the collapse of Communism and has been replaced by a marriage of convenience. The Americans no longer feared Russia and despite a resurgence of US support after 9/11, the Americans slowly began to shift in another direction. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. At the same time China began to flourish economically and threatened shipping lanes through the South China Sea. US resources were needed to check Chinese designs. So how does one do this... withdraw from the Middle East without losing influence and move to check the Chinese? The only logical way is to create a balance of power between four countries in the Middle East. Those countries are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel. Israel might still be ahead in the pecking order, but not by much. A difficult but flawed strategy.

George Friedman: "Israel wanted the United States focused on Israel as its main partner, but the United States has much wider and more complex relations to deal with in the region that required a more nuanced approach." Netanyahu asked for more stringent sanctions on Iran. This will not happen. The US regards ISIS as a strategic threat to its interests in the region and the struggle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria requires some form of US and Iranian co-operation.

This is the root of the divergence on Iran.

This strategy is based on the Muslim countries taking responsibility, boots on the ground responsibility, against groups like ISIS, using US air support. The trick is to keep the rival players weak enough so they have to cooperate. On the face of it this seems to be working. CNN provides free advertising. An enemy is concocted. At one time this enemy had 15000 men riding around on Toyota trucks. One weeks work for the IAF. Not so today. ISIS has now gifted the surprised Americans a great opportunity to implement this hands-off policy. Turkey is slowly stepping up. Egypt has suggested an Inter-Arab force. Saudi Arabia suspiciously watches Iran. Turkey and the Saudis have meetings (just last week) and today Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said his country would support Iraq in an operation to retake Mosul from the Islamic State. So whats wrong with the strategy? Well for one, the US cannot afford a loss to ISIS and they cannot afford Iran taking control of Iraq. Obama and co are better known for mismanagement than balancing acts.

Islam is imploding economically and militarily. Countries like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria and Libya are embroiled in civil wars. There are water and food shortages in in all these countries. Life is worthless unless you are one of 140 million potential Jihadists. Then one dies for virgins or whatever. The flawed assumption is that with a mix of appeasement and distance from the conflict, Americans are generally safe. Quite the mistake! A tidal wave of fleeing Muslim immigration is sweeping Europe. Islam as a religion is taking hold in North America. 

The blunder is in believing that Islam should be grateful to be a part of western civilization. Nothing could be further from the truth. They abhor all other religions as demonstrated by the no go zones in Europe. Every State in the US has ongoing FBI investigations into potential jihadist activity.

It goes without saying that there will be a bad deal with Iran simply because Iran has no intention of abiding by the dictates of the infidel known as the Great Satan. They are just a slightly more sophisticated version of ISIS with a stock of ICBM's in the pantry....and the US needs them in the war against ISIS. Its either that or US boots on the ground. The first or possibly the second foreign sponsored bomb to explode in any US City will shatter all these naive attempts at balance. The barbarians are no longer at the gate...they are amongst us.

Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demands - Unknown

There are some people that if they don't know, you can't tell 'em - Louis Armstrong