Friday, February 26, 2016
THE END OF AN ERA
Once upon a time the Arab world was the place of romantic myths about princes on white horses, beautiful dancing maidens and mysterious tales of adventure under the stars. The discovery of black gold in modern times changed all that as we witnessed how economic power in the wrong hands can turn those same hands into a chokehold on civilization. Insignificant countries like Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya and others abruptly seized the moment to fan the flames of religious fanaticism and tyranny. Not understanding that all good things come to an end the leaders of the Arab nations did not invest this windfall in their citizens. They proceeded to display all the same characteristics associated with an easy money generation.
The UN was engulfed by arrogant, greedy deceitful and pompous men in flowing arab garb and keffiyahs, inebriated with their newfound political and economic power. They enjoyed the cavalcade of infidels cowering and pandering to their every word and need. They even created the so-called "Palestinian" cause and cynically pounded the world with the "plight" of the refugees, supplying them with guns, political power, but no peaceful solution to the manufactured embryo. Even though a solution was available at the stroke of a financial pen. This culminated in their puppet leader, an armed Yasir Arafat addressing the UN assembly with the threat: "Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand." Extremely dramatic and while the liberal media went into surround sound raptures Mr Arafat was filling personal bank accounts in Switzerland with Western donated funds meant for the so-called Palestinian cause.
The self appointed leader of this abominable coalition was the wealthiest cog in the wheel...Saudi Arabia, a coalition of Bedouin tribes turned kingdom. This kingdom amassed a sizeable fortune via its nationalized oil company ARAMCO. The fortune was used to expand arab influence on the world stage at the expense of the freedom loving democracies on our planet. But like all good things that are abused, they come to an end. The capitalist world takes no prisoners and the arab world is being taught a well earned and harsh lesson. Instead of taking care of future generations and providing education, healthcare, food and infrastructure they went on a weapons buying binge in order to protect the few against the many. Inevitably the price of oil fell from $100 to $30 a barrel. The picnic ended.
The Saudis are looking over their shoulders at the three non-arab powerhouses in the area, Israel, Turkey and Iran. Especially the latter two. All that weaponry is being put to good use in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. A new player in the form of ISIS is terrorizing all and sundry. The Saudi's are caught between a rock and a hard place. Ninety (90) percent of their budget is oil income based on a much higher price for oil. The Saudis use this income to placate their population and support countries like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen and Sudan as well as anti-Assad groups in Syria. But now the money is running out. Oil production has to be kept at a high output to protect market share. Ninety (90%) percent of Saudis work for the government. Seventy (70) percent are under the age of 30...a newer generation. In the Eastern part of the country (where the oil is) the population is mostly shiite and allied with Iran.
And now the Saudi's are considering selling parts of ARAMCO (the largest oil company in the world and a Saudi treasure). For those that are not aware....this is a development of monumental consequence.
The Russians and Americans are aware of the Saudi conundrum and have distanced themselves from the kingdom. Russia towards Iran and the US towards Turkey. This is a case of Saudi Arabia yelling "follow me...I'm right behind you (Obama style)". Nobody is following. It would be fair to assume that civil war or another form of upheaval in the not too distant future in the land of sand and oil is in the stars. The era of blackmail, greed and hubris is over.
“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”
― Mark Twain
“Declare your jihad on thirteen enemies you cannot see -egoism, arrogance, conceit, selfishness, greed, lust, intolerance, anger, lying, cheating, gossiping and slandering. If you can master and destroy them, then you will be ready to fight the enemy you can see.” - Al-Ghazali
Thursday, February 11, 2016
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Scott Stewart (Stratfor): As long as smugglers are able to make huge quantities of money hauling drugs and people north and guns and bulk cash south, they will be impossible to stop. Barriers may redirect the flow, but the powerful law of supply and demand will ensure that no matter what barriers are put into place, creative smugglers will find ways to circumvent them. Besides shifting the flow to areas that are not fenced, smugglers have also simply cut holes in the fence to pass through in sectors where there are barriers. They also use ladders and vehicle ramps to scale the fence, dig tunnels to pass under it and employ a variety of means — as complex as ultralight aircraft and catapults and as simple as tossing items by hand — to pass or launch contraband over the fence. COMMENT: The border is 3200km long...and what about the sea? The amount of BS coming out of this US election is incredible.
2.George Friedman: In an interview with Bloomberg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addressed the various crises currently facing the European Union, saying, “The EU is like the orchestra playing on the Titanic.” I don’t think anything captures the reality in Europe better than that quote, save for one thing. The orchestra on the Titanic knew that the ship was sinking and that they were going to die. They played in defiance of their fate. COMMENT: The Europeans appear to be in denial. Its a matter of time until they separate into two groups....the six founders of the EU and the rest.
3.Does anyone remember our Israeli hero Haran? If not, pls read http://inctruth.blogspot.ca/2011/12/miracle-continues-israeli-hero.html To cut a long story short, Haran is now embarking on another adventure in his bid to change the world. I have checked this out with education buffs and it appears that this product is simple and essential. Pls read http://www.olliesblocks.com COMMENT: Keep it simple parents!
4.The price of gold is on an upwards charge. The global economy appears to be gripped by fear. The Central Bank shenanigans of the past decade have run out of gas. Focus on the banking systems. Italy is at the forefront, but those with exposure to energy debt must also be preparing for a shake-up. One would think that transport companies would be relishing the fall in oil prices. On the contrary, what are they going to do with cheap oil if the economy is slowing and sales have fallen through the floor? The cargo shipping industry is almost dormant. COMMENT: In this kind of situation protection of capital as opposed to profits is a priority!
5.Russia is moving its state of the art air force airpower (SU-35's) and anti-aircraft systems (Pantsyr-S2's) into Syria. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been making noises about a ground incursion into Syria. Now the silence is shattering. The Syrians and Russians are on the attack and Assad's forces are taking back large swathes of territory. COMMENT: Putin is giving Obama a lesson on how to back an ally. Look out for a cease fire call once Assad and co have been secured.
6.One does not have to wonder why the South African economy is in a shambles when listening to the president of the ANC and of South Africa, Jacob Zuma: “When you vote for the ANC, you are also choosing to go to heaven. When you don’t vote for the ANC you should know that you are choosing that man who carries a fork… who cooks people. When you are carrying an ANC membership card, you are blessed. When you get up there, there are different cards used but when you have an ANC card, you will be let through to go to heaven.” COMMENT: I'm speechless...and if you know me that in itself is an achievement.
7.Rumour has it that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have decided to form a unity Government. That in itself is nothing new. One of the conditions is for the PA to place its units at the Rafah crossing to Egypt. This would allow for Egypt to allow the crossing to open. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has announced that he would resign and support a national unity government if Hamas and Fatah successfully reached an agreement. Even more interesting is that at the same time Israel and Turkey have moved forward towards a renewal of diplomatic ties. COMMENT: Hamas must be in a bad way if they agree to this.
There is much to be said for failure. It is more interesting than success - Max Beerbohm
Don't believe the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing - it was here first - Robert Jones Burdette
1.Scott Stewart (Stratfor): As long as smugglers are able to make huge quantities of money hauling drugs and people north and guns and bulk cash south, they will be impossible to stop. Barriers may redirect the flow, but the powerful law of supply and demand will ensure that no matter what barriers are put into place, creative smugglers will find ways to circumvent them. Besides shifting the flow to areas that are not fenced, smugglers have also simply cut holes in the fence to pass through in sectors where there are barriers. They also use ladders and vehicle ramps to scale the fence, dig tunnels to pass under it and employ a variety of means — as complex as ultralight aircraft and catapults and as simple as tossing items by hand — to pass or launch contraband over the fence. COMMENT: The border is 3200km long...and what about the sea? The amount of BS coming out of this US election is incredible.
2.George Friedman: In an interview with Bloomberg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addressed the various crises currently facing the European Union, saying, “The EU is like the orchestra playing on the Titanic.” I don’t think anything captures the reality in Europe better than that quote, save for one thing. The orchestra on the Titanic knew that the ship was sinking and that they were going to die. They played in defiance of their fate. COMMENT: The Europeans appear to be in denial. Its a matter of time until they separate into two groups....the six founders of the EU and the rest.
3.Does anyone remember our Israeli hero Haran? If not, pls read http://inctruth.blogspot.ca/2011/12/miracle-continues-israeli-hero.html To cut a long story short, Haran is now embarking on another adventure in his bid to change the world. I have checked this out with education buffs and it appears that this product is simple and essential. Pls read http://www.olliesblocks.com COMMENT: Keep it simple parents!
4.The price of gold is on an upwards charge. The global economy appears to be gripped by fear. The Central Bank shenanigans of the past decade have run out of gas. Focus on the banking systems. Italy is at the forefront, but those with exposure to energy debt must also be preparing for a shake-up. One would think that transport companies would be relishing the fall in oil prices. On the contrary, what are they going to do with cheap oil if the economy is slowing and sales have fallen through the floor? The cargo shipping industry is almost dormant. COMMENT: In this kind of situation protection of capital as opposed to profits is a priority!
5.Russia is moving its state of the art air force airpower (SU-35's) and anti-aircraft systems (Pantsyr-S2's) into Syria. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been making noises about a ground incursion into Syria. Now the silence is shattering. The Syrians and Russians are on the attack and Assad's forces are taking back large swathes of territory. COMMENT: Putin is giving Obama a lesson on how to back an ally. Look out for a cease fire call once Assad and co have been secured.
6.One does not have to wonder why the South African economy is in a shambles when listening to the president of the ANC and of South Africa, Jacob Zuma: “When you vote for the ANC, you are also choosing to go to heaven. When you don’t vote for the ANC you should know that you are choosing that man who carries a fork… who cooks people. When you are carrying an ANC membership card, you are blessed. When you get up there, there are different cards used but when you have an ANC card, you will be let through to go to heaven.” COMMENT: I'm speechless...and if you know me that in itself is an achievement.
7.Rumour has it that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have decided to form a unity Government. That in itself is nothing new. One of the conditions is for the PA to place its units at the Rafah crossing to Egypt. This would allow for Egypt to allow the crossing to open. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has announced that he would resign and support a national unity government if Hamas and Fatah successfully reached an agreement. Even more interesting is that at the same time Israel and Turkey have moved forward towards a renewal of diplomatic ties. COMMENT: Hamas must be in a bad way if they agree to this.
There is much to be said for failure. It is more interesting than success - Max Beerbohm
Don't believe the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing - it was here first - Robert Jones Burdette
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Sneaking Suspicions
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant. Perhaps a Peanut Gallery on Steroids.
1.Central Banks are panicking. Latest figures show US oil reserves at record levels. On the news the price of oil crashed. The following day a rumour was making the rounds that Russia and OPEC were getting together to limit oil supply. The Russians denied the rumour but the oil price continued to rise. So who was the mysterious buyer? Some say Central Banks understand that a continued fall in the price will lead to pandemonium in the market place....and they are buying. COMMENT: If they are the the buyers, its definitely not for profit. Sharp downward moves in market places are usually detrimental to economies. Therefore a slower retreat is required and and Central Banks often co-ordinate such moves.
2.If one is searching for further evidence of stress in world markets, look no further than the bank shares in most countries, especially those exposed to energy debt. Down they go! COMMENT: The creaking door is opening!
3.In December, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in The US. This continued to prop up the USD. Was it a mistake? Suspicious minds definitely wondered. Now out of the blue we see two days of strong falls in the USD. And this after Japan joined Germany, Switzerland and others announcing negative interest rates on the Japanese Yen. Logically, if one has to pay interest to hold a currency (instead of receiving interest), that currency should fall in value. Just the opposite is happening. COMMENT: The US Fed might be contemplating reversing that interest rate rise.
4. How does it happen that the US raises rates while the rest of the world is stagnant or lowering theirs? Some Americans have a mindset that America is the world. Only half of Americans have travelled outside the US. Only about 30% hold passports. Perhaps the Fed is of the same mindset and therein lies a potential answer to this particular conundrum (apologies to my American friends, especially since I love the US of A).
5.The price of gold has jumped in the last days. Gold usually rises when there is systemic instability (like banking systems in trouble) or perhaps when countries are in danger of becoming failed states (oil producers that rely on oil income as their major source of income). Gold definitely rises when cheap money is created or about to be created. The explanation could be more simple. Most currencies are paying negative interest rates. The zero interest rate on gold might be attractive. COMMENT: When markets move in what appears to be an irrational manner, somebody usually knows something us normal beings don't. How does all this add up? Any ideas? Its fun trying to connect the dots.
6.I've been watching the US elections in Iowa and now New Hampshire. For heavens sake...who votes for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders? (Some of the others don't cover themselves in glory either.) Most of the stuff they sprout are unfeasible empty promises. It doesn't seem to faze anyone. A lot of the younger folk appear to be irrationally hopeful or uncontrollably angry. As for the adults in the room... COMMENT: When paper money is printed to "solve" a problem, historically the populace loses faith in the paper and especially in the perpetrators. Loss of faith under any circumstance can lead to dire consequences.
7. For some of those who think I am suffering from concussion...pls watch.
https://youtu.be/uOQ39HIqP8s
Life is a crisis-so what! - Malcolm Bradbury
I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much - Mother Teresa
1.Central Banks are panicking. Latest figures show US oil reserves at record levels. On the news the price of oil crashed. The following day a rumour was making the rounds that Russia and OPEC were getting together to limit oil supply. The Russians denied the rumour but the oil price continued to rise. So who was the mysterious buyer? Some say Central Banks understand that a continued fall in the price will lead to pandemonium in the market place....and they are buying. COMMENT: If they are the the buyers, its definitely not for profit. Sharp downward moves in market places are usually detrimental to economies. Therefore a slower retreat is required and and Central Banks often co-ordinate such moves.
2.If one is searching for further evidence of stress in world markets, look no further than the bank shares in most countries, especially those exposed to energy debt. Down they go! COMMENT: The creaking door is opening!
3.In December, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in The US. This continued to prop up the USD. Was it a mistake? Suspicious minds definitely wondered. Now out of the blue we see two days of strong falls in the USD. And this after Japan joined Germany, Switzerland and others announcing negative interest rates on the Japanese Yen. Logically, if one has to pay interest to hold a currency (instead of receiving interest), that currency should fall in value. Just the opposite is happening. COMMENT: The US Fed might be contemplating reversing that interest rate rise.
4. How does it happen that the US raises rates while the rest of the world is stagnant or lowering theirs? Some Americans have a mindset that America is the world. Only half of Americans have travelled outside the US. Only about 30% hold passports. Perhaps the Fed is of the same mindset and therein lies a potential answer to this particular conundrum (apologies to my American friends, especially since I love the US of A).
5.The price of gold has jumped in the last days. Gold usually rises when there is systemic instability (like banking systems in trouble) or perhaps when countries are in danger of becoming failed states (oil producers that rely on oil income as their major source of income). Gold definitely rises when cheap money is created or about to be created. The explanation could be more simple. Most currencies are paying negative interest rates. The zero interest rate on gold might be attractive. COMMENT: When markets move in what appears to be an irrational manner, somebody usually knows something us normal beings don't. How does all this add up? Any ideas? Its fun trying to connect the dots.
6.I've been watching the US elections in Iowa and now New Hampshire. For heavens sake...who votes for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders? (Some of the others don't cover themselves in glory either.) Most of the stuff they sprout are unfeasible empty promises. It doesn't seem to faze anyone. A lot of the younger folk appear to be irrationally hopeful or uncontrollably angry. As for the adults in the room... COMMENT: When paper money is printed to "solve" a problem, historically the populace loses faith in the paper and especially in the perpetrators. Loss of faith under any circumstance can lead to dire consequences.
7. For some of those who think I am suffering from concussion...pls watch.
https://youtu.be/uOQ39HIqP8s
I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much - Mother Teresa
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