Thursday, May 10, 2018
The Iran Deal - Analysis
Six months after the Obama inauguration Israeli intelligence labelled Barack Obama as an "enemy of Israel” and this label was adopted by the Israeli cabinet. Israel then set about nullifying the Obama effect, knowing that congress support of Israel was almost across the board. In the eight Obama years Israel settled more settlers in Judea and Samaria than in all of modern Israeli history. Israel created suburbs and towns all around Jerusalem making Jerusalem for all intents and purposes indivisible. The Iran deal was supported across the board by Israeli intelligence, even while the politicians railed against it. A stronger Iran created new alliances for Israel in the Sunni world. A coalition of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States gave rise to a potential regional collaboration against the strengthening Iran. A mistaken Obama worldview and his naive mismanagement created an Arab winter and ISIS. Even better for Israel. As a result the two state solution died a natural death except in the UN which was dying its own natural death.
At this point two important developments changed the course of Israeli strategy vis a vis Iran and the US. Donald Trump was elected president and to put it bluntly, a policy of sucking up to the narcissistic American president was implemented. The second and more important development was that Iran diverted the billions meant for its people, to strengthening its military infrastructure in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. This was a mistake of epic proportions by the Iranian leadership and typical of religious tyrants bent on spreading a primitive fanatical doctrine by force and hatred. At the urging of Netanyahu, Trump withdrew from the Iranian deal. Using extreme aggression, Israel attacked different Iranian targets in Syria, culminating in an Iranian attempt to fire missiles at the Golan heights.
In response, Israel launched a massive attack on Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria. An IDF spokesman said, “We do not know yet the (Iranian) casualty count. But I can say that in terms of our purpose, we focused less on personnel and more on capabilities and hardware ... to inflict long-term damage on the Iranian military establishment in Syria. We assess it will take substantial time to replenish." He also said that Russia had been informed prior to the operation. Bottom line... at least 95% of Iran's military infrastructure in Syria has been destroyed. Even more far-reaching and critical, the Iranian currency, the rial has collapsed and inflation is about to spike. In this writers opinion, the regime of Ali Khamenei is doomed and it is a matter of "when" and not "if".
Sometimes it is important to watch what leaders do and not what they say. For example, Bibi Netanyahu has visited Putin at least 8 times in the last two years. This week, Netanyahu laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier together with Putin and the Serbian president Vucic in Moscow, while the Israeli attack on Syria was unfolding. It is also an interesting fact that Netanyahu is the only world leader to speak to both Putin and Trump on a weekly basis. Add to that the fact that Oil and gas make up 70% of Russias exports and Russia’s government is more likely to run a surplus for the first time in almost three years – if the average oil price for this year comes in at over $53. At the moment, as a result of the crisis with Iran, the price is $70 a barrel....that man Putin!
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose - Bill Gates
Accept the challenges so that you can feel the exhilaration of victory - George S. Patton
Victory is the child of preparation and determination - Sean Hampton
Thursday, May 3, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1. Business Insider: Israeli officials cited in a Ynetnews report characterized the missile strike on Friday by the US, the UK, and France on suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria as a failure. Multiple Israeli government and military sources suggested the strike was not effective in hurting Syria's ability to conduct chemical attacks. These officials also criticized President Donald Trump's talking about the strike beforehand. The latest strike most likely didn't change anything on the battlefield in Syria, and it's hard to know how much of the chemical weapons stockpile it hit. COMMENT: Another win!
2.An overnight missile attack against weapons storage bases in Syria destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface rockets, a regional official told The New York Times Monday. The official, from the regional alliance of Iran, Syria, Iran and its proxy Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, said the strikes killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians. COMMENT: Note to Trump from the IDF...That's how it is done Mr Trump.
3.Ehud Yaari: Israel and Iran are on course for a collision in the near future. Indeed, a military clash that could expand well beyond Syrian territory appears almost inevitable. In particular, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is determined to transform Syria into a platform for a future war against Israel, whereas leaders of the Jewish state have sworn to prevent what they often describe as the tightening of a noose around Israel’s neck. GPF: Tehran is facing resistance at home as well, most recently with strikes in Iranian Kurdistan, farmers striking in Isfahan added to Iran’s socio-economic problems – high unemployment, inflation in the price of certain staple products and currency depreciation. COMMENT: The disappointing expectation that Iranians had from the nuclear "deal" is feeding local unrest as Iran squanders economic advantages in Syria,Iraq,Lebanon and Yemen.
4. The James Comey book is out. He should have called it "The Last True American". For me, the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are as mad as hell at him is an indicator that he is an honest broker. COMMENT: The GOP, who tries to brand Comey as a “leaker”, leaked his memos in less than 40 minutes.
5 .China’s main strategic challenge is that the US controls the seas. Geography means China’s imports and exports must traverse coastal bottlenecks the US could easily close if it wished. That’s intolerable if your goal is to be a superpower, and that’s definitely what Xi wants. One Belt, One Road is the answer. It will link the Eurasian land mass into a giant trading bloc with Europe at one end and China at the other. The project will open land routes the US cannot interdict, thereby letting China take what it feels is its rightful place of leadership. The scope is breathtaking, but Beijing is determined to make it happen. COMMENT: Add to that the "Made in China 2025" project and it is clear that China is initiating a serious economic challenge to the US.
6. Dr. Ian Bremmer: Last week was James Comey week here in the United States. The former FBI director came out swinging, announcing that Donald Trump isn't morally fit to be president. Note to Comey: 1) We knew that. 2) We elected him anyway. What does that say about the United States? That much of the electorate is morally unfit? If so, which part? The part that voted for Trump? The (larger) part that stayed home and didn't cast a ballot in the most important election in decades? The part that continued to vote for a bunch of establishment candidates who allowed the system to progress to the point where someone like Trump could actually be elected? COMMENT: Dr Bremmer recommends buying gold.
7. So Trump thinks he is taking on China in a Tariff war. In reality, he is actually taking on the whole world. For example, China is about to slap a tariff on US soybeans. Its as if Trump thinks that US soybeans are so delicious that the Chinese are desperate for "Made in the US" soybeans. Stratfor: Today, China is a major market for Brazil's soybean exports, which account for over 40 percent of its total exports to the Asian country. And because of Beijing's trade spat with the United States and ambitious infrastructure investments in Brazil, Brazilian soybean exports to China are poised to keep growing. COMMENT: Life is tough in the fast lane. And now Trump is talking about re-entry into TPP.
“Our great democracies still tend to think that a stupid man is more likely to be honest than a clever man, and our politicians take advantage of this prejudice by pretending to be even more stupid than nature made them.” ― Bertrand Russell
“He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.” ― George Bernard Shaw
“Today's public figures can no longer write their own speeches or books, and there is some evidence that they can't read them either. ” ― Gore Vidal
“Go to heaven for the climate and hell for the company.” ― Benjamin Franklin Wade
1. Business Insider: Israeli officials cited in a Ynetnews report characterized the missile strike on Friday by the US, the UK, and France on suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria as a failure. Multiple Israeli government and military sources suggested the strike was not effective in hurting Syria's ability to conduct chemical attacks. These officials also criticized President Donald Trump's talking about the strike beforehand. The latest strike most likely didn't change anything on the battlefield in Syria, and it's hard to know how much of the chemical weapons stockpile it hit. COMMENT: Another win!
2.An overnight missile attack against weapons storage bases in Syria destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface rockets, a regional official told The New York Times Monday. The official, from the regional alliance of Iran, Syria, Iran and its proxy Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, said the strikes killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians. COMMENT: Note to Trump from the IDF...That's how it is done Mr Trump.
3.Ehud Yaari: Israel and Iran are on course for a collision in the near future. Indeed, a military clash that could expand well beyond Syrian territory appears almost inevitable. In particular, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is determined to transform Syria into a platform for a future war against Israel, whereas leaders of the Jewish state have sworn to prevent what they often describe as the tightening of a noose around Israel’s neck. GPF: Tehran is facing resistance at home as well, most recently with strikes in Iranian Kurdistan, farmers striking in Isfahan added to Iran’s socio-economic problems – high unemployment, inflation in the price of certain staple products and currency depreciation. COMMENT: The disappointing expectation that Iranians had from the nuclear "deal" is feeding local unrest as Iran squanders economic advantages in Syria,Iraq,Lebanon and Yemen.
4. The James Comey book is out. He should have called it "The Last True American". For me, the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are as mad as hell at him is an indicator that he is an honest broker. COMMENT: The GOP, who tries to brand Comey as a “leaker”, leaked his memos in less than 40 minutes.
5 .China’s main strategic challenge is that the US controls the seas. Geography means China’s imports and exports must traverse coastal bottlenecks the US could easily close if it wished. That’s intolerable if your goal is to be a superpower, and that’s definitely what Xi wants. One Belt, One Road is the answer. It will link the Eurasian land mass into a giant trading bloc with Europe at one end and China at the other. The project will open land routes the US cannot interdict, thereby letting China take what it feels is its rightful place of leadership. The scope is breathtaking, but Beijing is determined to make it happen. COMMENT: Add to that the "Made in China 2025" project and it is clear that China is initiating a serious economic challenge to the US.
6. Dr. Ian Bremmer: Last week was James Comey week here in the United States. The former FBI director came out swinging, announcing that Donald Trump isn't morally fit to be president. Note to Comey: 1) We knew that. 2) We elected him anyway. What does that say about the United States? That much of the electorate is morally unfit? If so, which part? The part that voted for Trump? The (larger) part that stayed home and didn't cast a ballot in the most important election in decades? The part that continued to vote for a bunch of establishment candidates who allowed the system to progress to the point where someone like Trump could actually be elected? COMMENT: Dr Bremmer recommends buying gold.
“Our great democracies still tend to think that a stupid man is more likely to be honest than a clever man, and our politicians take advantage of this prejudice by pretending to be even more stupid than nature made them.” ― Bertrand Russell
“He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.” ― George Bernard Shaw
“Today's public figures can no longer write their own speeches or books, and there is some evidence that they can't read them either. ” ― Gore Vidal
“Go to heaven for the climate and hell for the company.” ― Benjamin Franklin Wade
Monday, April 2, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1. All these social media platforms that gather your information and your friend info are in for a rocky legal and PR ride. Anyone who thought Zuckerberg, @facebook and co would keep your data "safe" was never paying attention. When the product is free, YOU are the product! We haven't heard the last of this.
2. So the march of a million on the Gaza border turned into a march of 30,000. Then a few hundred, including Hamas gunmen who tried to storm the fence, and 17 were shot dead. Note to Hamas: The more you try to create an international incident, the more your people will die. You can thank the heavens and Alluah Akbar that this cynical attempt to provoke media attention did not take place on the Egyptian border. You would be burying 30,000 people today. The IDF has sent a clear message. Pay attention.
3.Geopolitics traditionally studies the links between political power and geographic space, and examines strategic prescriptions based on the relative importance of land power and sea power in world history - Wikipedia
During an October 2012 presidential debate, Obama ridiculed Romney about his concern over Russia’s “geopolitical” threat. He criticized the former Massachusetts governor for saying Russia -- not Al Qaeda -- was America's "No. 1 geopolitical foe."
“You said Russia. Not Al Qaeda. You said Russia,” Obama said regarding a question, which involved the biggest threats facing the world. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because … the Cold War’s been over for 20 years,” he chided the Republican presidential contender. COMMENT: In case you have been blinded by Trump's stupidity, this would be a factual reminder of the ridiculous and dangerous Obama worldview.
4.USA Today: Six weeks ago, they were just high school kids in Parkland, Fla.: cramming for tests, plodding through college essays, jousting with friends. Now, they are a thundering force on the national stage, unrelenting voices determined to upend the history of gun violence in the U.S. "Welcome to the revolution,” said Cameron Kasky. COMMENT: Total U.S. military casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan: 6,950 vs Number of U.S. children killed by gun violence in past five years: 6,984. And Americans wonder why the planet looks at their country with derision. These kids will change America. They bring hope.
5.Patrick Watson: Unlike virtual reality, AI-driven “fake” video is ready for primetime.
With tools that are available right now, computers can study a person’s voice and facial expressions, then produce a convincing video of that person saying… anything. Adventurous FakeApp users have used it to create realistic-looking celebrity porn, replacing the original heads of the actors with those of movie stars and singers. And that’s not even the worst you can do with this new technology.
Take politicians or top business leaders, for example. Stock prices often move when a CEO or a Federal Reserve official says something important. But did they really say it? With this technology out there, you can’t be 100% sure unless you were in the room.
The potential for mischief is obvious. Worse, the mischief-makers can make a bundle by generating price movements, so you can bet it will happen. We just don’t know where or when.COMMENT: Welcome to a new and dangerous world. If you are not nervous about the Nasdaq...now is the time.
6.Nitsana Darshan-Leitner: In the face of the enactment of the Taylor Force Act the current entrenched Palestinian leadership now has some difficult choices to make. The long waited enactment of the United States’ Taylor Force Act, which could require the State Department to withhold $350 million of its annual American aid to the Palestinians if they continue using these taxpayer funds to pay monthly stipends to the families of imprisoned terrorists and suicide bombers, has created a crisis for their leadership. COMMENT: Life is getting tougher for the so-called Palestinian Arabs and who fall under the heading of liars, cheats, loud-mouths, scam artists and cowards....and now that the oil weapon is non-existent....
7. A huge controversy has exploded in the cricket world as the Australian Coach, captain, vice-captain and some team members are caught cheating on camera in an international test match against South Africa. Brydon Coverdale: To understand the public response, and why the incident touched such a nerve, you need to understand the role sport has always played in Australia's national identity. The Australian public has a line, too. And with their culture of sledging, whingeing, hypocrisy and arrogance, our cricketers have been head-butting it for so long that they have become an insufferable national migraine. "What sort of leaders not only hatch a plan like this, but have the team's most junior member take all the risk? That is not leadership, it is cowardice." COMMENT: Enough said.
Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) - You gotta hand it to Putin. If you wanted to pick a President to divide our nation, destroy our morale and lower our standin' in the world, you couldn't have made a better decision than Donald Trump.
A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will in time produce a people as base as itself - Joseph Pulitzer
It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow - Robert H. Schuller
2. So the march of a million on the Gaza border turned into a march of 30,000. Then a few hundred, including Hamas gunmen who tried to storm the fence, and 17 were shot dead. Note to Hamas: The more you try to create an international incident, the more your people will die. You can thank the heavens and Alluah Akbar that this cynical attempt to provoke media attention did not take place on the Egyptian border. You would be burying 30,000 people today. The IDF has sent a clear message. Pay attention.
3.Geopolitics traditionally studies the links between political power and geographic space, and examines strategic prescriptions based on the relative importance of land power and sea power in world history - Wikipedia
During an October 2012 presidential debate, Obama ridiculed Romney about his concern over Russia’s “geopolitical” threat. He criticized the former Massachusetts governor for saying Russia -- not Al Qaeda -- was America's "No. 1 geopolitical foe."
“You said Russia. Not Al Qaeda. You said Russia,” Obama said regarding a question, which involved the biggest threats facing the world. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because … the Cold War’s been over for 20 years,” he chided the Republican presidential contender. COMMENT: In case you have been blinded by Trump's stupidity, this would be a factual reminder of the ridiculous and dangerous Obama worldview.
4.USA Today: Six weeks ago, they were just high school kids in Parkland, Fla.: cramming for tests, plodding through college essays, jousting with friends. Now, they are a thundering force on the national stage, unrelenting voices determined to upend the history of gun violence in the U.S. "Welcome to the revolution,” said Cameron Kasky. COMMENT: Total U.S. military casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan: 6,950 vs Number of U.S. children killed by gun violence in past five years: 6,984. And Americans wonder why the planet looks at their country with derision. These kids will change America. They bring hope.
5.Patrick Watson: Unlike virtual reality, AI-driven “fake” video is ready for primetime.
With tools that are available right now, computers can study a person’s voice and facial expressions, then produce a convincing video of that person saying… anything. Adventurous FakeApp users have used it to create realistic-looking celebrity porn, replacing the original heads of the actors with those of movie stars and singers. And that’s not even the worst you can do with this new technology.
Take politicians or top business leaders, for example. Stock prices often move when a CEO or a Federal Reserve official says something important. But did they really say it? With this technology out there, you can’t be 100% sure unless you were in the room.
The potential for mischief is obvious. Worse, the mischief-makers can make a bundle by generating price movements, so you can bet it will happen. We just don’t know where or when.COMMENT: Welcome to a new and dangerous world. If you are not nervous about the Nasdaq...now is the time.
6.Nitsana Darshan-Leitner: In the face of the enactment of the Taylor Force Act the current entrenched Palestinian leadership now has some difficult choices to make. The long waited enactment of the United States’ Taylor Force Act, which could require the State Department to withhold $350 million of its annual American aid to the Palestinians if they continue using these taxpayer funds to pay monthly stipends to the families of imprisoned terrorists and suicide bombers, has created a crisis for their leadership. COMMENT: Life is getting tougher for the so-called Palestinian Arabs and who fall under the heading of liars, cheats, loud-mouths, scam artists and cowards....and now that the oil weapon is non-existent....
7. A huge controversy has exploded in the cricket world as the Australian Coach, captain, vice-captain and some team members are caught cheating on camera in an international test match against South Africa. Brydon Coverdale: To understand the public response, and why the incident touched such a nerve, you need to understand the role sport has always played in Australia's national identity. The Australian public has a line, too. And with their culture of sledging, whingeing, hypocrisy and arrogance, our cricketers have been head-butting it for so long that they have become an insufferable national migraine. "What sort of leaders not only hatch a plan like this, but have the team's most junior member take all the risk? That is not leadership, it is cowardice." COMMENT: Enough said.
Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) - You gotta hand it to Putin. If you wanted to pick a President to divide our nation, destroy our morale and lower our standin' in the world, you couldn't have made a better decision than Donald Trump.
A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will in time produce a people as base as itself - Joseph Pulitzer
It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow - Robert H. Schuller
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Taku Tamaki: The US’s commitment to protecting Japan is currently based on the idea that the American mainland remains safe from North Korean retaliation. But faced with the reality that North Korea could soon be able to strike American soil, there is now a serious question mark over how willing the US will be to come to Japan’s aid while its own security is at risk. COMMENT: Kim Jong Un definitely has Trump"s number. Imagine that...Trump being conned by a better con man.
2. And now Trump has fired Tillerson The announcement of the firing was made a day after Mr. Tillerson said: "we have full confidence" in the UK's assessment that Russia was likely responsible for a nerve agent attack against a former Russian spy in Salisbury last week. The WH refused to point a finger at Russia. COMMENT: Man, It is so obvious that there is a Manchurian candidate in the WH, It's embarrassing watching while the president "re-arranges the deck chairs on the Titanic" to accommodate the incomparable puppet master, Vlad Putin.
3.TED Talk: According to Pink, monetary incentives work best for repetitive, rules-based jobs. Yet those same contingent motivators (“If you do this, then you get that”) often reduce productivity in cognitive and creative jobs. People take longer and achieve inferior results.
The reason, Pink says, is that bonuses, commissions, and the like make you narrow your focus. You concentrate on delivering the results that will give you the reward. That’s fine in jobs like manual labor, certain kinds of accounting, some computer programming, and financial analysis. But those jobs are also the ones being most rapidly automated. COMMENT: Good jobs today will be the creative roles. Thinking out of the box and succeeding should be rewarded on an equity basis.
4.Mauldin Economics: Karen Bain thinks automation will eliminate up to 25% of US jobs by 2030, with the lower-wage tiers getting hit the hardest and soonest. That will be devastating, and it’s not that far away. Remember 2006? In theory, automation will enable lower prices, which will raise demand and create more jobs. Bain does not think it will happen that way. They foresee up to 40 million permanent job losses in the US, even accounting for higher demand. COMMENT: Scary stuff
5.Connor Lamb! America is rising up on its feet and roaring a message to what is left of the Trump base. It's not about the issues of Democrat vs Republican. It's about simple human decency. Ivanka, Don Jnr, Trump himself all visited Pennsylvania and campaigned for the Republican candidate. They invested a record amount of 10 million dollars in an area Trump won by 20 points in the election. This is a gas and steel area. The Dems didn't even run a candidate in this seat in the last two elections. Ninety-six (96%) of the population are whites. They lost. COMMENT: Picture sitting on a Trump beach and a Tsunami is rushing towards you. Weigh the choices.
6. Andrew McCabe - Republican
James Comey- Republican
Robert Mueller - Republican
Rod Rosenstein - Republican
All of these Republicans are not part of some secret liberal FBI scheme. This ridiculous Fox News fairy tale needs to be put to bed.
7.What would you do if you and your coworkers were getting raises totaling $700 million? If you're like a group of doctors in Canada, you'd fight it. Some general practitioners and medical specialists in Quebec have signed a petition saying they don't want the hundreds of millions in raises they got after negotiations with the provincial government last month.
Instead, they say the money should be redistributed -- to fund more nurses and other health-care professions, and to make care more affordable for their patients. COMMENT: Only in Canada!
Armchair-general
Noun. An outspoken warmonger, and/or a self-appointed strategist, who normally lacks actual military experience, and probably has no intention to get any in the near future.
The coward only threatens when he is safe - von Goethe
Actors are con men and con men are actors - Edward Burns
1.Taku Tamaki: The US’s commitment to protecting Japan is currently based on the idea that the American mainland remains safe from North Korean retaliation. But faced with the reality that North Korea could soon be able to strike American soil, there is now a serious question mark over how willing the US will be to come to Japan’s aid while its own security is at risk. COMMENT: Kim Jong Un definitely has Trump"s number. Imagine that...Trump being conned by a better con man.
2. And now Trump has fired Tillerson The announcement of the firing was made a day after Mr. Tillerson said: "we have full confidence" in the UK's assessment that Russia was likely responsible for a nerve agent attack against a former Russian spy in Salisbury last week. The WH refused to point a finger at Russia. COMMENT: Man, It is so obvious that there is a Manchurian candidate in the WH, It's embarrassing watching while the president "re-arranges the deck chairs on the Titanic" to accommodate the incomparable puppet master, Vlad Putin.
3.TED Talk: According to Pink, monetary incentives work best for repetitive, rules-based jobs. Yet those same contingent motivators (“If you do this, then you get that”) often reduce productivity in cognitive and creative jobs. People take longer and achieve inferior results.
The reason, Pink says, is that bonuses, commissions, and the like make you narrow your focus. You concentrate on delivering the results that will give you the reward. That’s fine in jobs like manual labor, certain kinds of accounting, some computer programming, and financial analysis. But those jobs are also the ones being most rapidly automated. COMMENT: Good jobs today will be the creative roles. Thinking out of the box and succeeding should be rewarded on an equity basis.
4.Mauldin Economics: Karen Bain thinks automation will eliminate up to 25% of US jobs by 2030, with the lower-wage tiers getting hit the hardest and soonest. That will be devastating, and it’s not that far away. Remember 2006? In theory, automation will enable lower prices, which will raise demand and create more jobs. Bain does not think it will happen that way. They foresee up to 40 million permanent job losses in the US, even accounting for higher demand. COMMENT: Scary stuff
5.Connor Lamb! America is rising up on its feet and roaring a message to what is left of the Trump base. It's not about the issues of Democrat vs Republican. It's about simple human decency. Ivanka, Don Jnr, Trump himself all visited Pennsylvania and campaigned for the Republican candidate. They invested a record amount of 10 million dollars in an area Trump won by 20 points in the election. This is a gas and steel area. The Dems didn't even run a candidate in this seat in the last two elections. Ninety-six (96%) of the population are whites. They lost. COMMENT: Picture sitting on a Trump beach and a Tsunami is rushing towards you. Weigh the choices.
6. Andrew McCabe - Republican
James Comey- Republican
Robert Mueller - Republican
Rod Rosenstein - Republican
All of these Republicans are not part of some secret liberal FBI scheme. This ridiculous Fox News fairy tale needs to be put to bed.
7.What would you do if you and your coworkers were getting raises totaling $700 million? If you're like a group of doctors in Canada, you'd fight it. Some general practitioners and medical specialists in Quebec have signed a petition saying they don't want the hundreds of millions in raises they got after negotiations with the provincial government last month.
Instead, they say the money should be redistributed -- to fund more nurses and other health-care professions, and to make care more affordable for their patients. COMMENT: Only in Canada!
Armchair-general
Noun. An outspoken warmonger, and/or a self-appointed strategist, who normally lacks actual military experience, and probably has no intention to get any in the near future.
The coward only threatens when he is safe - von Goethe
Actors are con men and con men are actors - Edward Burns
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Tom Bentley: Markets are inherently cyclical and inherently volatile, but they do self-correct before inflicting massive damage. Now you put government in the mix, it zigs when it should have zagged, and all hell breaks loose. Think of it as an airplane in a storm – it bounces around, people grab their air-sickness bags, then the plane lands and all is fine. Now let’s assume the hand of God intervenes and grabs a wing of the plane in an effort to stop the shaking – the wing will break off, and the plane will start it’s death spiral. COMMENT: Hold on tight folks. Preservation of capital trumps profits!
2.YNET: If the prime minister (Netanyahu) had any good advisors left, they would have urged him to try to strike a deal with the attorney general before it became too late; but then his fate was sealed by his confidant, the man who up until Tuesday seemed to be willing to spend his entire life in jail as long as his master remained unharmed. We won’t forget what happened Tuesday. It’s the day the walls of denial broke down. Like in the theater, when a curtain falls on the last act of a play. COMMENT: The era of Bibi is over.
3.Turkish armed forces are confronting Assad and the Russians at a place in Syria known as Afrin. Syrian Kurds, feeling betrayed by Trump and co. have turned to Assad and Russia for aid. Assad's forces have entered Afrin and the Turkish invasion has stalled. COMMENT:
The western media and North Americans (me too) are so obsessed with the Trump reality show that none of this appears to be news. Putin must be smiling to himself.
4.Prof. Alon Tal, chairman of Tel Aviv University’s department of public policy: In terms of the wide-held belief that Jews must continue to outpace Arab birthrates in order to ensure a Jewish majority, Tal said that race has already been won. “That used to be an absolutely valid argument, but today Arabs are averaging roughly 40,000 births a year and the Jews are averaging over 100,000. So if there was a demographic battle, it’s over,” he said. COMMENT: The argument espoused by the Americans and Europe that Israel would lose its Jewish identity without a Two-state solution...is total BS.
5.Since the Trump election in 2016, I have been talking about an approaching trade war. And now it is appearing on the horizon. Patrick Watson: "President Trump thinks China is acting unfairly by dumping excess steel on the world market, to the disadvantage of US steel producers. He wants to stop it, but Congress won’t go along because steel consumers, like automakers, enjoy the low prices." Now that it has been identified as a national security issue, Trump can make decisions on the matter without permission from Congress. Watson: "It could also be a huge problem for Canada if the president includes our northern neighbor in any tariffs and quotas. Canadian steel is highly integrated into US manufacturing." COMMENT: Canada built much of its steel industry specifically to help US national security—supporting each other as allies do.
6. Trump is a knife in the back kinda guy. Most American allies and trade partners are slowly getting the idea. Israel understands that sucking up to this prez will get it what it wants. So far so good. I would, however, counsel caution. Getting into bed with a man who is already compromised by the Oligarch elite is not a good long-term idea. Consequently, a negative Israeli reaction to a Trump peace plan would put the cat amongst the pigeons. Alternatively, If matters go sideways for Trump, his partnership with Netanyahu would be seen with extreme prejudice....to say the least.
7.George Friedman: "Seoul has opened its own dialogue with Pyongyang, separate from any U.S.-North Korean discussion that may have been underway." Clearly, South Korea, staring down the barrel of a gun, do not trust Trump and his shenanigans. Further, it is becoming more apparent that China is promoting a North-South dialogue, thus distancing American influence. Friedman: "South Korea, is a vast economic success. Its primary interest is retaining that economic success, which means avoiding war. Before North Korea’s recent evolution, the U.S. guaranteed the South’s security and economic success. Now, the U.S. threatens it." COMMENT: Trump's preference for the white skin color is not lost on the peninsula. The law of unintended consequences....
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; an argument an exchange of ignorance -Robert Quillen
People's minds are changed through observation and not through argument - Will Rogers
1.Tom Bentley: Markets are inherently cyclical and inherently volatile, but they do self-correct before inflicting massive damage. Now you put government in the mix, it zigs when it should have zagged, and all hell breaks loose. Think of it as an airplane in a storm – it bounces around, people grab their air-sickness bags, then the plane lands and all is fine. Now let’s assume the hand of God intervenes and grabs a wing of the plane in an effort to stop the shaking – the wing will break off, and the plane will start it’s death spiral. COMMENT: Hold on tight folks. Preservation of capital trumps profits!
2.YNET: If the prime minister (Netanyahu) had any good advisors left, they would have urged him to try to strike a deal with the attorney general before it became too late; but then his fate was sealed by his confidant, the man who up until Tuesday seemed to be willing to spend his entire life in jail as long as his master remained unharmed. We won’t forget what happened Tuesday. It’s the day the walls of denial broke down. Like in the theater, when a curtain falls on the last act of a play. COMMENT: The era of Bibi is over.
3.Turkish armed forces are confronting Assad and the Russians at a place in Syria known as Afrin. Syrian Kurds, feeling betrayed by Trump and co. have turned to Assad and Russia for aid. Assad's forces have entered Afrin and the Turkish invasion has stalled. COMMENT:
The western media and North Americans (me too) are so obsessed with the Trump reality show that none of this appears to be news. Putin must be smiling to himself.
4.Prof. Alon Tal, chairman of Tel Aviv University’s department of public policy: In terms of the wide-held belief that Jews must continue to outpace Arab birthrates in order to ensure a Jewish majority, Tal said that race has already been won. “That used to be an absolutely valid argument, but today Arabs are averaging roughly 40,000 births a year and the Jews are averaging over 100,000. So if there was a demographic battle, it’s over,” he said. COMMENT: The argument espoused by the Americans and Europe that Israel would lose its Jewish identity without a Two-state solution...is total BS.
5.Since the Trump election in 2016, I have been talking about an approaching trade war. And now it is appearing on the horizon. Patrick Watson: "President Trump thinks China is acting unfairly by dumping excess steel on the world market, to the disadvantage of US steel producers. He wants to stop it, but Congress won’t go along because steel consumers, like automakers, enjoy the low prices." Now that it has been identified as a national security issue, Trump can make decisions on the matter without permission from Congress. Watson: "It could also be a huge problem for Canada if the president includes our northern neighbor in any tariffs and quotas. Canadian steel is highly integrated into US manufacturing." COMMENT: Canada built much of its steel industry specifically to help US national security—supporting each other as allies do.
6. Trump is a knife in the back kinda guy. Most American allies and trade partners are slowly getting the idea. Israel understands that sucking up to this prez will get it what it wants. So far so good. I would, however, counsel caution. Getting into bed with a man who is already compromised by the Oligarch elite is not a good long-term idea. Consequently, a negative Israeli reaction to a Trump peace plan would put the cat amongst the pigeons. Alternatively, If matters go sideways for Trump, his partnership with Netanyahu would be seen with extreme prejudice....to say the least.
7.George Friedman: "Seoul has opened its own dialogue with Pyongyang, separate from any U.S.-North Korean discussion that may have been underway." Clearly, South Korea, staring down the barrel of a gun, do not trust Trump and his shenanigans. Further, it is becoming more apparent that China is promoting a North-South dialogue, thus distancing American influence. Friedman: "South Korea, is a vast economic success. Its primary interest is retaining that economic success, which means avoiding war. Before North Korea’s recent evolution, the U.S. guaranteed the South’s security and economic success. Now, the U.S. threatens it." COMMENT: Trump's preference for the white skin color is not lost on the peninsula. The law of unintended consequences....
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; an argument an exchange of ignorance -Robert Quillen
People's minds are changed through observation and not through argument - Will Rogers
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Patrick Watson: Somewhere in the Newport, Wales garbage dump is a computer hard drive that local resident James Howells discarded in 2013. He had spilled lemonade on it and thought it wasn’t worth fixing. Howells forgot that the hard drive contained the codes to access some bitcoins he had “mined” beginning back in 2009. He had about 7,500 bitcoins, worth $75 million assuming a $10,000 bitcoin price. COMMENT: A month ago the value was $140 million...wow!
2.Senator Tammy Duckworth: “I spent my entire adult life looking out for the well-being, the training, the equipping of the troops for whom I was responsible,” she continued. “Sadly, this is something that the current occupant of the Oval Office does not seem to care to do — and I will not be lectured about what our military needs by a five-deferment draft dodger.”
“And I have a message for cadet bone spurs: If you cared about our military, you'd stop baiting Kim Jong Un into a war that could put 85,000 American troops, and millions of innocent civilians, in danger." Duckworth, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, lost both of her legs when a rocket-propelled grenade shot down the helicopter she was piloting over Iraq in 2004. COMMENT: "Five-deferment draft dodger" and "cadet bone spurs"...That's about right.
3.Russian President Vladimir Putin has become the owner of a one and half room apartment in the heart of Tel Aviv. The apartment belonged to his St. Petersberg high school teacher, Mina Yuditskaya Berliner, who immigrated to Israel in 1973. They were reunited in 2005 when Putin visited Israel. Putin began sending her gifts, including the apartment. Berliner left the apartment to Putin in her will. She passed away in December. COMMENT: Interesting how easily we forget influential and so-called important people, but never forget our teachers.
4.The Turkish government has said that, despite Russia’s wishes to the contrary, it has made no commitment to limit its military operation in Syria to Afrin province. Ankara noted, however, that it was coordinating with the United States and Israel, stressing the importance of avoiding confrontation with nation-states operating in Syria. COMMENT: In case nobody has heard from the Trump frantic media, Turkish forces are operating in Syria against the Syrian Kurds in what has been described as a full-scale military operation.
5.In an interview with Israeli newspaper Yisrael Hayom, US President Trump said that while US-Israel relations were “great,” peace with the Palestinians would make them “a lot better.” He said, “Right now, I would say the Palestinians are not looking to make peace. And I am not necessarily sure that Israel is looking to make peace. So we are just going to have to see what happens.” Regarding settlements Trump said, “The settlements are something that very much complicates and always have complicated making peace, so I think Israel has to be very careful with the settlements.” COMMENT: All this from the guy who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel LOL
6.The White House denied as false claims by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that he had spoken with the United States about a specified proposal regarding Israeli annexation of Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria. COMMENT: Looks like the competition to be crowned "The Kindergarten Bully King of Fake News" is hotting up as we approach lunch break.
7.GPF: South Korean media have painted a poor picture of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was reportedly told by South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he should stay out of South Korea’s internal affairs. South Korea continues to reach out to North Korea, with China backing its play, while the United States and Japan appear to be on the outside looking in. It’s clear Japan is the biggest loser right now. COMMENT: The military build-up in Japan is making South Korea very, very nervous.
“Are you a politician or does lying just run in your family?” ― Fannie Flagg
“Lies sound like facts to those who've been conditioned to misrecognize the truth.
― DaShanne Stokes
When they call the roll in the Senate, the senators do not know whether to answer ''present'' or ''not guilty.''--Theodore Roosevelt
1.Patrick Watson: Somewhere in the Newport, Wales garbage dump is a computer hard drive that local resident James Howells discarded in 2013. He had spilled lemonade on it and thought it wasn’t worth fixing. Howells forgot that the hard drive contained the codes to access some bitcoins he had “mined” beginning back in 2009. He had about 7,500 bitcoins, worth $75 million assuming a $10,000 bitcoin price. COMMENT: A month ago the value was $140 million...wow!
2.Senator Tammy Duckworth: “I spent my entire adult life looking out for the well-being, the training, the equipping of the troops for whom I was responsible,” she continued. “Sadly, this is something that the current occupant of the Oval Office does not seem to care to do — and I will not be lectured about what our military needs by a five-deferment draft dodger.”
“And I have a message for cadet bone spurs: If you cared about our military, you'd stop baiting Kim Jong Un into a war that could put 85,000 American troops, and millions of innocent civilians, in danger." Duckworth, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, lost both of her legs when a rocket-propelled grenade shot down the helicopter she was piloting over Iraq in 2004. COMMENT: "Five-deferment draft dodger" and "cadet bone spurs"...That's about right.
3.Russian President Vladimir Putin has become the owner of a one and half room apartment in the heart of Tel Aviv. The apartment belonged to his St. Petersberg high school teacher, Mina Yuditskaya Berliner, who immigrated to Israel in 1973. They were reunited in 2005 when Putin visited Israel. Putin began sending her gifts, including the apartment. Berliner left the apartment to Putin in her will. She passed away in December. COMMENT: Interesting how easily we forget influential and so-called important people, but never forget our teachers.
4.The Turkish government has said that, despite Russia’s wishes to the contrary, it has made no commitment to limit its military operation in Syria to Afrin province. Ankara noted, however, that it was coordinating with the United States and Israel, stressing the importance of avoiding confrontation with nation-states operating in Syria. COMMENT: In case nobody has heard from the Trump frantic media, Turkish forces are operating in Syria against the Syrian Kurds in what has been described as a full-scale military operation.
5.In an interview with Israeli newspaper Yisrael Hayom, US President Trump said that while US-Israel relations were “great,” peace with the Palestinians would make them “a lot better.” He said, “Right now, I would say the Palestinians are not looking to make peace. And I am not necessarily sure that Israel is looking to make peace. So we are just going to have to see what happens.” Regarding settlements Trump said, “The settlements are something that very much complicates and always have complicated making peace, so I think Israel has to be very careful with the settlements.” COMMENT: All this from the guy who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel LOL
6.The White House denied as false claims by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that he had spoken with the United States about a specified proposal regarding Israeli annexation of Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria. COMMENT: Looks like the competition to be crowned "The Kindergarten Bully King of Fake News" is hotting up as we approach lunch break.
7.GPF: South Korean media have painted a poor picture of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was reportedly told by South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he should stay out of South Korea’s internal affairs. South Korea continues to reach out to North Korea, with China backing its play, while the United States and Japan appear to be on the outside looking in. It’s clear Japan is the biggest loser right now. COMMENT: The military build-up in Japan is making South Korea very, very nervous.
“Are you a politician or does lying just run in your family?” ― Fannie Flagg
“Lies sound like facts to those who've been conditioned to misrecognize the truth.
― DaShanne Stokes
When they call the roll in the Senate, the senators do not know whether to answer ''present'' or ''not guilty.''--Theodore Roosevelt
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Trump Reality Check - George Friedman
George Friedman is one of the world's most respected geo-political analysts. Its always worthwhile taking note of his thoughts.
George Friedman
Now that Donald Trump has been president of the United States for a year, I’m struck by how stable U.S. foreign policy has been. Things remain unchanged, for the most part, or are following the path they were when he was elected. His behavior has been extremely disruptive, of course, and the fact that he is disliked around the world creates the impression that U.S. behavior is altogether different. But it isn’t.
Consider U.S. relations with NATO. Trump raised the question of whether NATO was obsolete. The way he raised the question was no doubt abrasive, but considering the alliance is now 65 years old, it’s not a preposterous question to ask. And yet the answer is the same. The U.S. position has not changed. The U.S. is still a full member, and Trump has pledged to honor Article 5, which commits the United States to come to the defense of any member.
U.S. policy toward Russia, for all the vitriol that surrounds it, is remarkably similar to the policies in place before Trump’s election. The United States levied additional sanctions on Russia, which agrees with the U.S. that bilateral relations are the worst they’ve been in decades. (Notably, the sanctions were initiated by Congress but unopposed by Trump.) U.S. interests in Ukraine are largely the same – the promise to send anti-tank missiles to Kiev poses only a modest challenge to Moscow – as are U.S. commitments to the Baltics and Central and Eastern Europe, where troop deployments, rotations and exercises continue to take place.
U.S. relations with China are not so different either. The North Korea issue notwithstanding, Washington continues to demand that China change its export and currency policy. In keeping with prior administrations, Trump’s has achieved nothing substantial in this regard, but the perennial face-off with Beijing on economic matters continues unabated. Likewise, in the South China Sea, both countries continue to provoke each other, as evidenced by the deployment of a U.S. destroyer last week, but the game of gestures that has gone on for years goes on.
Then there is NAFTA, which is in the process of being renegotiated. Mexico, Canada and the United States have all declared, at various points, that an agreement is impossible. This is a normal tactic in these kinds of talks. The agreement may collapse. New terms may be negotiated. The negotiations may never end. But NAFTA is still the framework by which North America economic relations are built.
In the Middle East, the policies of the Trump administration – no major commitments – are in keeping with the policies of previous administrations. The Islamic State has been disrupted (but not destroyed) but Trump’s was not the first administration to decide to fight the group. The United States did relocate the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, but it was a purely symbolic gesture that changes little on the ground, and incidentally was mandated by Congress years ago.
The only major difference in Trump foreign policy concerns North Korea. The crisis itself predates Trump by decades. It stems from a policy that held that the U.S. would not allow North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear development surged under the Obama administration and continues under Trump. Like Obama, Trump has declined to go to war, opting instead to find alternate ways to resolve the crisis.
Trump’s rhetoric on the matter has been incongruous with the aggressiveness of his actions. A more tactful translation of his language might have read: “North Korea’s development of an intercontinental ballistic missile able to strike the United States will be viewed in the gravest terms by the United States, and will be met with an appropriate response.” The fact remains that he has pursued a very cautious policy toward North Korea.
This points to something too many observers tend to forget: Over matters of foreign policy for all nations, they take rhetoric a little too seriously. What shapes U.S. policy in Korea has far more to do with the quality of intelligence on nuclear facilities and the placement of artillery along the Demilitarized Zone. What shapes U.S. policy on China has to do more with the supply chain running from China to the United States – and the costs of disrupting that supply chain. A president who ignores recommendations from the military and intelligence organs – and screws up – will have to reckon with a hostile public. A president who severs supply chains – and hurts the bottom line of American business – will have to reckon with a hostile business community. These constraints beget caution.
Trump’s rhetoric is designed to animate his support base. His actions are designed to maintain the status quo. Reasonable people can disagree on whether the status quo is what any president should aspire to. But whatever the expectations for Trump’s foreign policy may have been, the reality is that it has changed very little. It’s a timely reminder that rhetoric and reality are different things.
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors - Plato
George Friedman
Now that Donald Trump has been president of the United States for a year, I’m struck by how stable U.S. foreign policy has been. Things remain unchanged, for the most part, or are following the path they were when he was elected. His behavior has been extremely disruptive, of course, and the fact that he is disliked around the world creates the impression that U.S. behavior is altogether different. But it isn’t.
Consider U.S. relations with NATO. Trump raised the question of whether NATO was obsolete. The way he raised the question was no doubt abrasive, but considering the alliance is now 65 years old, it’s not a preposterous question to ask. And yet the answer is the same. The U.S. position has not changed. The U.S. is still a full member, and Trump has pledged to honor Article 5, which commits the United States to come to the defense of any member.
U.S. policy toward Russia, for all the vitriol that surrounds it, is remarkably similar to the policies in place before Trump’s election. The United States levied additional sanctions on Russia, which agrees with the U.S. that bilateral relations are the worst they’ve been in decades. (Notably, the sanctions were initiated by Congress but unopposed by Trump.) U.S. interests in Ukraine are largely the same – the promise to send anti-tank missiles to Kiev poses only a modest challenge to Moscow – as are U.S. commitments to the Baltics and Central and Eastern Europe, where troop deployments, rotations and exercises continue to take place.
U.S. relations with China are not so different either. The North Korea issue notwithstanding, Washington continues to demand that China change its export and currency policy. In keeping with prior administrations, Trump’s has achieved nothing substantial in this regard, but the perennial face-off with Beijing on economic matters continues unabated. Likewise, in the South China Sea, both countries continue to provoke each other, as evidenced by the deployment of a U.S. destroyer last week, but the game of gestures that has gone on for years goes on.
Then there is NAFTA, which is in the process of being renegotiated. Mexico, Canada and the United States have all declared, at various points, that an agreement is impossible. This is a normal tactic in these kinds of talks. The agreement may collapse. New terms may be negotiated. The negotiations may never end. But NAFTA is still the framework by which North America economic relations are built.
In the Middle East, the policies of the Trump administration – no major commitments – are in keeping with the policies of previous administrations. The Islamic State has been disrupted (but not destroyed) but Trump’s was not the first administration to decide to fight the group. The United States did relocate the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, but it was a purely symbolic gesture that changes little on the ground, and incidentally was mandated by Congress years ago.
The only major difference in Trump foreign policy concerns North Korea. The crisis itself predates Trump by decades. It stems from a policy that held that the U.S. would not allow North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear development surged under the Obama administration and continues under Trump. Like Obama, Trump has declined to go to war, opting instead to find alternate ways to resolve the crisis.
Trump’s rhetoric on the matter has been incongruous with the aggressiveness of his actions. A more tactful translation of his language might have read: “North Korea’s development of an intercontinental ballistic missile able to strike the United States will be viewed in the gravest terms by the United States, and will be met with an appropriate response.” The fact remains that he has pursued a very cautious policy toward North Korea.
This points to something too many observers tend to forget: Over matters of foreign policy for all nations, they take rhetoric a little too seriously. What shapes U.S. policy in Korea has far more to do with the quality of intelligence on nuclear facilities and the placement of artillery along the Demilitarized Zone. What shapes U.S. policy on China has to do more with the supply chain running from China to the United States – and the costs of disrupting that supply chain. A president who ignores recommendations from the military and intelligence organs – and screws up – will have to reckon with a hostile public. A president who severs supply chains – and hurts the bottom line of American business – will have to reckon with a hostile business community. These constraints beget caution.
Trump’s rhetoric is designed to animate his support base. His actions are designed to maintain the status quo. Reasonable people can disagree on whether the status quo is what any president should aspire to. But whatever the expectations for Trump’s foreign policy may have been, the reality is that it has changed very little. It’s a timely reminder that rhetoric and reality are different things.
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors - Plato
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