The Iran Deal - Analysis

Six months after the Obama inauguration Israeli intelligence labelled Barack Obama as an "enemy of Israel” and this label was adopted by the Israeli cabinet. Israel then set about nullifying the Obama effect, knowing that congress support of Israel was almost across the board. In the eight Obama years Israel settled more settlers in Judea and Samaria than in all of modern Israeli history. Israel created suburbs and towns all around Jerusalem making Jerusalem for all intents and purposes indivisible. The Iran deal was supported across the board by Israeli intelligence, even while the politicians railed against it. A stronger Iran created new alliances for Israel in the Sunni world. A coalition of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States gave rise to a potential regional collaboration against the strengthening Iran. A mistaken Obama worldview and his naive mismanagement created an Arab winter and ISIS. Even better for Israel. As a result the two state solution died a natural death except in the UN which was dying its own natural death.

At this point two important developments changed the course of Israeli strategy vis a vis Iran and the US. Donald Trump was elected president and to put it bluntly, a policy of sucking up to the narcissistic American president was implemented. The second and more important development was that Iran diverted the billions meant for its people, to strengthening its military infrastructure in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. This was a mistake of epic proportions by the Iranian leadership and typical of religious tyrants bent on spreading a primitive fanatical doctrine by force and hatred. At the urging of Netanyahu, Trump withdrew from the Iranian deal. Using extreme aggression, Israel attacked different Iranian targets in Syria, culminating in an Iranian attempt to fire missiles at the Golan heights. 

In response, Israel launched a massive attack on Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria. An IDF spokesman said, “We do not know yet the (Iranian) casualty count. But I can say that in terms of our purpose, we focused less on personnel and more on capabilities and hardware ... to inflict long-term damage on the Iranian military establishment in Syria. We assess it will take substantial time to replenish." He also said that Russia had been informed prior to the operation. Bottom line... at least 95% of Iran's military infrastructure in Syria has been destroyed. Even more far-reaching and critical, the Iranian currency, the rial has collapsed and inflation is about to spike. In this writers opinion, the regime of Ali Khamenei is doomed and it is a matter of "when" and not "if". 

Sometimes it is important to watch what leaders do and not what they say. For example, Bibi Netanyahu has visited Putin at least 8 times in the last two years. This week, Netanyahu laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier together with Putin and the Serbian president Vucic in Moscow, while the Israeli attack on Syria was unfolding. It is also an interesting fact that Netanyahu is the only world leader to speak to both Putin and Trump on a weekly basis. Add to that the fact that Oil and gas make up 70% of Russias exports and  Russia’s government is more likely to run a surplus for the first time in almost three years – if the average oil price for this year comes in at over $53. At the moment, as a result of the crisis with Iran, the price is $70 a barrel....that man Putin!

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