Most political agendas and foreign policy decisions are based on economic shortages and especially long term economic trends. Specifically in the Western World post world war 2. In the early fifties most foreign offices came to the conclusion that oil would be a critical factor in the economic development of western economies. And so the political pendulum swung in the direction of of the oil producing nations. The arab world, aware of this newly found power realised the opportunity and this gave birth to arab nationalism. OPEC was established in 1960 and the PLO headed by Yasser Arafat was born in 1964. At the time the price of oil was 3 (yes, three) dollars a barrel. To be fair, the price in real terms of 2008 dollars was closer to 20 bucks a barrel. The price remained stable until the early seventies when OPEC began to flex its muscles.
The Yom Kippur War erupted in 1973 when Syria and Egypt surprised Israel in an almost deadly attack. OPEC saw the opportunity and placed an oil embargo on the West. The price of oil jumped fourfold to 12 dollars a barrel (About $40 a barrel in 2008), but that is a story for another day. Back to the PLO and Yasser Arafat. In 1974 this gentleman appeared before the UN packing a pistol at his side and threatened "Today I have come bearing an olive branch and a freedom fighter’s gun. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat: do not let the olive branch fall from my hand." And the members sucked it up! The PLO had the world at its feet.
In 1979 cracks began to appear between Shiite and Sunni Muslims as Iran and Iraq went to war sending the price of oil to $35 a barrel (about $80 in 2008 prices). And this is where the PLO fairy tale peaks. Like with all economic shortages, the market takes over and creates alternatives. Oil is no longer a political weapon. Some members of OPEC have over-extended themselves to the point of bankruptcy. The former PLO and their cronies are split between Hamas and the PLA, and of course Arafat has been buried together with his olive branch and pistol.
The long term trend today is towards electricity. Not oil. The price today is $90, but in devalued dollars. Alternative energy sources like nuclear energy, solar and wind power plus huge discoveries of oil sands etc.
are making oil as a weapon, irrelevant. The danger to Israel has not passed, but the miracle of Israel is there for all to see. Israels currency is one of the strongest in the world. China, India and Russia are all making large investments in Israel. Gas in sizeable amounts has been discovered off Haifa and Israel is the third largest exporter of weapons in the world. And lets not forget hi-tech and medicare. Not bad for a country 62 years old and surrounded by enemies.
Bottom line. Even though the "Palestinians" still behave as though they are the centre of the universe, The universe has changed. The so-called Palestinian problem was created by the oil weapon, and suffice to predict that it will be relegated to the back rows of history as OPEC (remember them?) sinks into oblivion.
The pendulum is swinging. Roll on 2011!
And to all my friends....Merry Christmas, A Happy New Year and Happy Holidays
If you have abandoned one faith, do not abandon all faith. There is always an alternative to the faith we lose. Or is it the same faith under another mask? - Graham Greene
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