Most of us have heard the saying "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." The evil in this case is Iran and its Shiite leader Ahmadinejad. Wikileaks: "Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt referred to Iran as evil, an existential threat and a power that is going to take us to war."
Iran no longer needs a nuclear weapon to threaten the world. This could go down as the 'Great red herring of the 21st Century'. It all starts on a small Island off Saudi Arabia. But I am getting ahead of myself. To understand what is happening, we need to understand there is a power struggle in the muslim world between Sunni and shiite muslims for leadership of 1.3 billion muslims worldwide. ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR IRAN TO WIN THE LEADERSHIP BATTLE IS FOR THE REST OF THE MIDDLE EAST TO BE UNSTABLE....AND TO CONTROL THE SOURCES OF OIL OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF. Remember that sentence. Two birds with one stone. Sounds like a conspiracy theory. You be the judge.
So far, there is instability in Tunisia, The Sudan, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Bahrein. There are niblings of instability and alarm in Morocco, Algeria, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The rest of the Persian Gulf countries are showing their worry wrinkles. Syria, Lebanon and Gaza are already in the Iranian camp. Lets cut to the chase. The US is scheduled to withdraw all its troops from Iraq by end of 2011. Let the games begin! Iraq has, believe it or not, a Shia majority. It will be in Iran's interest to prevent a strong goverment taking hold in Iraq, and by the looks of things, they are succeeding. Bahrein, a small Island in the persian Gulf is so strategically placed that the US has a base on the island. Unfortunately, the population (at least 60%) and opposition to the Sunni king, are shiites. So while CNN and Co. are focused on the big bad wolf in Libya, another big bad wolf in Iran is stirring the pot in Bahrein. If Bahrein falls to the "pro - democracy forces", even peaceably, the shiites will have control of both sides of the exit out of the Persian Gulf.
Next on the list are Saudi Arabia and Oman. The northern part of Saudi Arabia, bordering the Persian Gulf, is populated by shiites. This is where the demonstrations are taking place, unnoticed by western media. A senior Shia clergyman was arrested and released. I can just imagine what they whispered in his ear while he was being detained. (These days, apparently, they have to whisper). Now the Saudi authorities are threatening to react violently to any attempts to usurp their authority. Yemen (50% shia) borders Saudi Arabia and we are aware of what is going on there. There are also inklings of unrest in Oman and Kuwait. The trend is clear. Please note, the population of Iran is 75 million, more than all the countries of the Persian Gulf together. To be clear, what we are discussing here is a minimum of $200 a barrel oil. Nobody really gives a flying fig (that's a fruit) about the populations and their corrupt leaders.
Whats to be done? Well there is the possibility of insurgency or something similar, but one can be sure that The Iranians will use all methods to suppress this. Of course, the Americans have enough firepower to blow all of them into the next century, but at a guess, they won't. Iran does not need to change the balance of power in the region through military force. Its covert capability, unchecked by American force, is significant. It can covertly support pro-Iranian forces in the region, destabilizing existing regimes. With the psychology of the Arab masses changing, as they are no longer afraid to challenge their rulers, Iran will enjoy an enhanced capacity to cause instability.
It appears that Obama is caught up in a whirlwind of events and it will be fascinating to see how he handles this situation going forward. For sure, he did not expect his public dumping of Mubarak, a US ally, on national TV to lead to a chain of events this disturbing. He might just have to choose between expensive oil, his presidency and his ideology. I don't envy him, especially at a salary of $400,000 per annum.
The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it - Flannery O' Connor
A political map of Iran can be seen @ http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/iran_map.htm
Iran no longer needs a nuclear weapon to threaten the world. This could go down as the 'Great red herring of the 21st Century'. It all starts on a small Island off Saudi Arabia. But I am getting ahead of myself. To understand what is happening, we need to understand there is a power struggle in the muslim world between Sunni and shiite muslims for leadership of 1.3 billion muslims worldwide. ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR IRAN TO WIN THE LEADERSHIP BATTLE IS FOR THE REST OF THE MIDDLE EAST TO BE UNSTABLE....AND TO CONTROL THE SOURCES OF OIL OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF. Remember that sentence. Two birds with one stone. Sounds like a conspiracy theory. You be the judge.
So far, there is instability in Tunisia, The Sudan, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Bahrein. There are niblings of instability and alarm in Morocco, Algeria, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The rest of the Persian Gulf countries are showing their worry wrinkles. Syria, Lebanon and Gaza are already in the Iranian camp. Lets cut to the chase. The US is scheduled to withdraw all its troops from Iraq by end of 2011. Let the games begin! Iraq has, believe it or not, a Shia majority. It will be in Iran's interest to prevent a strong goverment taking hold in Iraq, and by the looks of things, they are succeeding. Bahrein, a small Island in the persian Gulf is so strategically placed that the US has a base on the island. Unfortunately, the population (at least 60%) and opposition to the Sunni king, are shiites. So while CNN and Co. are focused on the big bad wolf in Libya, another big bad wolf in Iran is stirring the pot in Bahrein. If Bahrein falls to the "pro - democracy forces", even peaceably, the shiites will have control of both sides of the exit out of the Persian Gulf.
Next on the list are Saudi Arabia and Oman. The northern part of Saudi Arabia, bordering the Persian Gulf, is populated by shiites. This is where the demonstrations are taking place, unnoticed by western media. A senior Shia clergyman was arrested and released. I can just imagine what they whispered in his ear while he was being detained. (These days, apparently, they have to whisper). Now the Saudi authorities are threatening to react violently to any attempts to usurp their authority. Yemen (50% shia) borders Saudi Arabia and we are aware of what is going on there. There are also inklings of unrest in Oman and Kuwait. The trend is clear. Please note, the population of Iran is 75 million, more than all the countries of the Persian Gulf together. To be clear, what we are discussing here is a minimum of $200 a barrel oil. Nobody really gives a flying fig (that's a fruit) about the populations and their corrupt leaders.
Whats to be done? Well there is the possibility of insurgency or something similar, but one can be sure that The Iranians will use all methods to suppress this. Of course, the Americans have enough firepower to blow all of them into the next century, but at a guess, they won't. Iran does not need to change the balance of power in the region through military force. Its covert capability, unchecked by American force, is significant. It can covertly support pro-Iranian forces in the region, destabilizing existing regimes. With the psychology of the Arab masses changing, as they are no longer afraid to challenge their rulers, Iran will enjoy an enhanced capacity to cause instability.
It appears that Obama is caught up in a whirlwind of events and it will be fascinating to see how he handles this situation going forward. For sure, he did not expect his public dumping of Mubarak, a US ally, on national TV to lead to a chain of events this disturbing. He might just have to choose between expensive oil, his presidency and his ideology. I don't envy him, especially at a salary of $400,000 per annum.
The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it - Flannery O' Connor
A political map of Iran can be seen @ http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/iran_map.htm
No comments:
Post a Comment