The Revolution That Wasn't

On March 27th I wrote: The liberally minded media calls it "The New Arab Spring" in a desperate attempt to put a positive spin on a situation that is slowly bankrupting their intellectual viewpoints. This is not the time for dreamers. Its time to slow down for a reality check, and the name of the game is survival. Since events are now moving at internet speed we shall soon bear witness to how a culture, who believe in honour killings, the lack of womans rights, secret police and pharaohs with a sprinkling of lawyers, doctors and accountants, attempts to evolve. We wish them luck, for the sake of mankind. But don't hold your breath, its going to be a hot summer, and until the fat lady sings "happy days are here again", it ain't over. Meanwhile her silence is deafening.

Time to do a quick check to see what has changed. Tunisia is quiet and the army is in control. Egypt is quiet and the army is in control. Jordan is quiet and the army is in control. Lebanon and Gaza are quiet and the military are in control. The Syrian army are shooting all and sundry and are trying to maintain control. In Libya there is a civil war, not a revolution. Iran is quiet and the army is in control. Same for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Bottom line, not much has changed. The perception is of a huge upheaval, but the reality is that not much has moved. The child threw a tantrum, broke some toys and has now calmed down. Even Tom Friedman is over his Kumbaya moment. The left is no longer singing "we shall overcome" and the candles have been extinguished. The news of the day is a Royal wedding in London. All pomp and ceremony. In the US the headlines are dominated by a clown holding court in a media circus. Meanwhile hundreds of millions of people are on the verge of starvation mistakenly believing that CNN and Facebook will put a meal on the table.

So what are the consistent threads in a sea of grey?  Firstly, there cannot be regime change in the Middle East unless the military turns against its leader. Egypt is the perfect example of a military coup under the guise of democratic change. Next, none of the dictatorships, whether in the Iranian form or the Saudi type, have any intention of allowing anybody to throw them under a bus, Mubarak style. Thirdly, the US is fast losing any influence that it once commanded in the area, demonstrated by the open disrespect the Palestinian arab leader, Abbas, is showing the once revered Obama. Finally, as US influence declines, arab leaders are looking to new political alignments, amidst the time-worn, traditional animosity that still exists. 

Who are the main players and where are the different playgrounds? Saudi Arabia plays for the Sunni's and sometimes the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran plays for the more aggressive shiite team, but the Sunni's have been re-inforced by a new player, Egypt. The playgrounds are The Persian Gulf, and Israel and the surrounding areas. For the time being we will ignore some local domestic curtain raisers and concentrate on the main game.

As it stands at the moment, oil as an economic weapon, is losing its shimmer. The trade off being oil for food. Whoever provides the food, will win this particular game. However there is a bigger game in town. Control of the oil exiting the Persian Gulf is critical to Iranian plans for leadersip of the Islamic world. For the time being, its checkmate to the Saudis, who unexpectedly used force to halt covert Iranian plans in Bahrain. It also appears that the solution in Yemen was brokered by the Saudis. As a result Iran's leadership is in disarray, with the dismissal and then re-hiring of the minister of Intelligence by The Ayatollah, overuling a decision by Ahminedejad.

In the Israeli playground, the Egyptians have just brokered a deal between Hamas and The PA. Iran did not oppose the deal. The Iranians are attempting to chummy up to the Egyptians, while at the same time getting a foothold in Judea and Samaria. As for Egypt, they are trying to re-assert their leadership role in the arab world, by brokering a weakened Palestinian unity (and thats what it is), and at the same time neutralising the Syrian influence on Hamas. It's so politically easy for these players to play the Israel card to encourage arab unity, why not play it? What with the vote on Palestinian independece (?) and general elections in Egypt (?) in September, Israel needs all the friends it can get. As for the arabs, they know that agreements in their world on not worth the paper they are written on, and that the only agreements in existence today are those that were physically enforced.  

And considering western democracy, imagine how we must appear to them. Massive deficits and debts, impotent leadership and most of all, the comical shmultz being served up by a buffoon like Trump dancing the boogie while the media plays the music. (Whatever happened to integrity?). Europe looks ripe for the picking and every day Islam advances on a carriage provided by European softness. So, honestly, why should they change to our style of democracy. All they have to do is to sit back and watch the show....everybody else is doing it. 

Once again Israel is facing political isolation in a dangerous world. Believe me when I say, if Israel is in danger, we all are!

Being a leader is not about making yourself more powerful. Its about making people around you more powerful -   Betty Linton