The Peanut Gallery

'Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.


1.As the American withdrawal from Iraq nears, the majority Shia government in Iraq is arresting more and more Sunni Muslims. The balance of power in the area is shifting towards Iran and all eyes are on the Persian Gulf, more specifically the Straits of Hormuz. About 40% of the world's oil passes daily through the Straits. Iran has the longest coastline along the straits and when one adds Iraq......the recipe for a crisis is complete. 


2.Don't look for a military strike against Iran either by the US (extremely unlikely in an election
year) or Israel. When and if Israel decides to strike, it won't be while there is media focus. As for the US, whenever the subject arises, they do the only thing open to them. They bluff. Imagine if the Iranians, in response to an attack, mine the straits of Hormuz. Apparently they have also been training suicide boats to attack oil tankers. PG: Think world financial markets and $300 dollar oil in an election year.


3.What would the Sunni reaction be to Iran manufacturing a nuclear device? Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran are deadly enemies and it is no secret that the Sunni world is hoping that Israel will do the job for them. If not, it is not inconceivable that the Saudis and Sunni Pakistan would agree to place nuclear weapons on Saudi soil (Pakistan has more than one hundred nuclear devices). PG: And for some or other reason, Obama felt that Afghanistan was of more strategic importance than Iraq.


4. Robert Kaplan: Iran is a crucial country. It fronts not just the oil-rich Persian Gulf but also the oil-rich Caspian Sea. No other country does that. It has a window onto Central Asia, which no other country in the Middle East has. So it’s enormously important. We are playing for high long-term stakes with Iran. 


5.George Friedman: We have to also recognize that with their increased power in Iraq, with the probability that the al Assad regime in Syria — Iranian allies — can survive, and with Hezbollah in Lebanon, we are looking at a situation where Iranian influences could stretch from the Afghan border to the Mediterranean. This is an enormously dangerous situation and it’s not really about nuclear weapons. PG: So now we are beginning to understand why the Saudi's are funding the Sunni uprising in Syria. Let the games begin!


6.Against heavy odds, Egypt and Tunisia are trying to woo back tourists with campaigns making use of the social media, celebrities, new slogans and a dose of image re-branding.  But they face an uphill effort as the smoke of revolution hasn’t quite dissipated and Europe, a key source of tourists, looks to be slipping into recession. PG: This is the reality of the Obama inspired arab spring. An economic catastrophe and the world is voting with its feet.


7.Daniel Pipes: Given a free choice, a majority of Middle Easterners vote for Islamists. Dynamic, culturally authentic and ostensibly democratic, these forward a body of uniquely vibrant political ideas and constitute the only Muslim political movement of consequence. But Islamism is the third totalitarian ideology (following Fascism and Communism). It preposterously proposes a medieval code to deal with the challenges of modern life. Retrograde and aggressive, it denigrates non-Muslims, oppresses women, and justifies force to spread Muslim rule. Middle Eastern democracy threatens not just the West's security but also its civilization. PG: Never a truer definition.



8.Adobe on Wednesday said it will no longer push its Flash software format for use in the browser programs that come with smartphones and tablet computers. Instead, Adobe will increase its support for HTML5, a collection of technologies backed by Apple and others such as Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. The fundamental dispute between the companies, which began collaborating in the 1980s, was who controls key technology standards.


9."Infression," a word invented by The Dines Letter, suggests that inflation and depression will occur simultaneously: an inflationary depression. This is a new virus cropping up in the international monetary system. Its feature is a flood of government money which attempts to inflate (because such inflation worked in the past), but the real purchasing power of people – adjusted for inflation – will decline. 


10.The Arab League called on the Syrian army to stop the killing of civilians on Saturday and said it was suspending Syria from the regional body in a surprise move that turns up the heat on President Bashar Assad. PG: The majority of arab league countries are Sunni. They all voted on favour of the suspension while the Shiites voted against. So similar to the politically bankrupt  UN. Not worth the paper it was typed on. Expect the violence to continue.


11. The United States is planning to bolster its military presence in the Persian Gulf as it withdraws its remaining troops from Iraq at the end of the year. Gulf countries have been disturbed by Iran’s growing reach in the area, a consequence of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Gulf countries are likely to welcome US plans to expand its military presence in the region.
The National (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates), 6 Nov 11. PG: Huh? We didn’t see this in the American press. Obviously they are more worried about Herman Cain's sex life.


Thought of the day: Imagine if Adolf Hitler had possession of a nuclear bomb......


It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor even the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change - Charles Darwin