Sunday, January 18, 2015 - How are we doing today 19th April 2015?
Preposterous Predictions
If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good!
1.The Middle East will continue to degenerate into the wild east, with Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and a surprising erosion in Turkey. Sunni and Shiite extremists will battle it out with each other and with secular muslims. To add a little spice to this Jihadist salad, they will target a confused western world with growing appetites the way a predator senses fear and goes for the jugular.
2. And since misery loves company, Africa as a continent will have to contend with a rising Islamic wave (Boko Harem, al Shabaab and Ansar al sharia to name a few) together with tribal rivalries, water and food shortages. Not a pretty sight. Anyone contemplating going on Safari, should stick to South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Tanzania.
3.We will witness the demise of OPEC as energy markets wallow in oversupply interrupted by the occasional civil war. Even countries will go belly up, the most conspicuous being Venezuela closely followed by Libya and Nigeria.
4. The US Iran nuclear negotiations will draw to a successful close, and most sanctions will be lifted. That might sound like good news to Iran but they will find that three things cannot be hidden...the sun, the moon and the truth. In this case the elephant in the room is that by adding Iran's oil supply to the present glut, it will cause a further deterioration in the price. Iran needs oil at $131 dollars a barrel to balance even the most meagre budget. Conclusion easily drawn.
5. Russia and Putin will survive the oil crisis, the Russian people being made of sterner stuff than most. Russia and China will form the baby nucleus of an alliance which will in time challenge the US in many spheres. China will use its huge foreign currency reserves to create new partnerships in emerging markets, notably in countries badly hit by the oil and commodities crises. They are already thinking ahead to the next cycle.
6. Europe has reached the point of no return. Create liquidity or slip into recession. Recession could easily exacerbate the already growing anti-immigration, anti EU groups, whose political power is now something that is of concern to the powers that may be.
7.The two major macroeconomic drivers for 2015 will be the rising US dollar and a global currency war. Central banks, whom until now have worked in tandem will diverge into a "every man for himself" mode, while slowing economies with large US denominated debt will struggle to repay that debt, pressuring an international USD credit bubble already under strain.
8. The US federal reserve who in the minds of many can do no wrong, will find themselves in a quandary as to dealing with the strong USD and raising of US Interest rates, while worldwide inflation flirts with a negative figure. In 2015, we will learn that the markets are bigger and more powerful than even the vaunted Federal Reserve.
9. Many banking systems will be tottering as 2015 unfolds (especially Russia), markets will be volatile, as already witnessed and protection of principle, rather than creation of profits should be the name of the game as regards portfolio management. With so much uncertainty, we make a wild prediction that gold will hit at least $1800 an ounce.
10. President Obama will use the coming period to try and get done what he was unable to accomplish while in control of both houses of congress. The impending collapse of the shale oil boom will dampen some of the economic achievements of his presidency and as for foreign policy achievements....I'm sure he would prefer to forget his creation of an "arab spring".
11. Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this.
We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't - Alan Greenspan.
Weather forecast for tonight: dark - George Carlin
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