The price of oil is down in the doldrums. Energy supply is abundant and will remain so while China is slowing down. From an American point of view with energy independence in sight and hurting over unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in strategy was required. The plan was to change strategic emphasis from the Middle East to South East Asia and Europe in order to balance the emerging power of China and Russia. In order to do this the US had to create a balance of power in the Mideast and hence everything"but the kitchen table" surrender to the Iranian Mullahs. An amusing portrayal from an Iranian point of view can be seen at this youtube link.
https://youtu.be/PsaoSONHh9M
The unfortunate part about this deal by the Obama administration is the attempt to spin it as a successful and balanced win win deal when in fact it is a disorganized retreat from a problematic Middle East to facilitate more important objectives in South East Asia and Europe.
The good old days of OPEC and the grovelling to these arrogant folk are over. Saudi Arabia and Russia are in the process of flooding world markets with oil in what appears to be an unsuccessful attempt to defeat the US shale oil industry. They believe that by keeping the price low around $40 dollars a barrel or less, they can force the American shale oil industry into bankruptcy and thus keep their market share. A huge mistake. As a result of new and cleaner technologies the average break-even price of shale oil has dropped from $70 a barrel to about $50 a barrel However, the emergence of even more advanced technologies has some rigs producing at $10-$20 dollars a barrel. Bottom line, the energy crisis is over and we can look forward to an era of cheap energy for the foreseeable future.
With this narrative in mind, lets take a look at the Middle East. Not only are oil revenues dwindling, there are substantial water shortages in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Iraq. All these countries are embroiled in civil wars. As the water table continues to fall, things can only get worse. Economically, Islam is imploding and the trickle of refugees migrating to Europe has now become a stream soon to be a river and then a sea. This does not bode well for the region. The vacuum created by the US retreat has left the way open for Russia and China to wield their influence, while Sunni and Shiite extremists in the form of ISIS and Iran look to form caliphates.
So how do the Americans plan to guard their interests? The intention is to create a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and its allies, Turkey and Iran. While they keep each other busy, and with one eye on Israel, the US can move assets to South East Asia and Europe. An Israel, armed to the teeth would be the administration's insurance policy. This might explain why regardless of the cold political mood in Washington, the US continues to strengthen Israel militarily. Sounds logical but thats where it ends.
In order for a strategy to be functional it has to be efficiently implemented, otherwise Murphy's law (what can go wrong, will go wrong) takes over. "Efficient" is not a word that can be used to describe Obama and Kerry's negotiating skills. They naively assumed that as long as the players in the region were preoccupied with each other they would leave the US alone. Nothing could be further from reality. The imploding region is casting envious eyes towards the decadent societies of Europe and North America.
So while Barack Obama sings "Amazing Grace", these folks are chanting "Death to America" and preparing a Trojan Horse. The barbarians are no longer at the gate. They are amongst a population that still imagines that the Iranian deal will prevent a war that is already raging. This is the unfortunate result of a leadership obsessed with political correctness, arrogance and legacy.
Just remember - when you think all is lost, the future remains - Bob Goddard
Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson
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