The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.Addicting Info: "Donald Trump is a liar. Not the kind of lies that qualify as little white lies or harmless little fibs. He doesn’t just exaggerate a little or embellish his stories. No, Donald Trump qualifies for full pants on fire status. A recent study of nearly 40 hours of campaign footage by Politico found that The Donald lies on average every five minutes. Go ahead and read that again and take it in for all it’s worth: Donald Trump tells a bald-faced lie every five minutes he’s at a podium. His followers eat it up. Whether he’s inventing numbers about trade deficits, creating success stories that definitely never actually happened to him or defending his bankruptcies, out-of-court settlements and failed business ventures, Donald Trump truly personifies the old adage that you can tell if he’s lying if his lips are moving." COMMENT: Some might say this is a brilliant strategy. What does it say about Americans who believe this? 

2.The Economist Intelligence Unit, a forecasting and analysis firm within the Economist Group, says that a victory by U.S. Republican Party front-runner Donald Trump is one of the top 10 risks facing the world today, BBC reported March 17. The research firm, which uses a scale of one to 25 to rate potential international threats, gave such a scenario a 12 rating, which is the same it has awarded the threat of terrorism destabilizing the global economy. The firm also rated a Trump presidency as being riskier to the world than a British exit from the European Union or armed clashes in the South China Sea. COMMENT: Yesterday he threatened to nuke ISIS. Madman or strategical genius with a finger on the button?

3.The Head of General Security for the Dubai Emirate, Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan Tamim, has stated that Palestinians should abandon their aspiration for an independent state and merge with Israeli Jews in a united, bi-national state instead. In a series of remarks published on his Twitter account Monday afternoon, Tamim attempted to garner support for his idea, claiming that a Palestinian state led by Arabs would join the list of failed states in the Arab world. Tamim controversially stated: "I suggest relinquishing the idea of a Palestinian state and being satisfied with an Israeli state that would include both Israelis and Palestinians and join the Arab League." COMMENT: Now That's telling it like it is!

4.Stratfor: Over the course of history, society relied first on wood and wind for its energy before moving to coal, oil and natural gas. The next transition — conceivably, to batteries — is just getting started. With it will come the rise of a whole new set of commodities, best reflected by lithium's recent success and predicted growth. However, in all likelihood, lithium will eventually be replaced by something cheaper, more abundant and more universally accessible. Lithium's prospects in the near future are exciting, but the duration of its success will be limited. COMMENT: As cheap energy continues to flood the planet, some will benefit and others will unravel.

5.US Interest rates: The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, If they keep rates low there is a distinct possibility of a falling dollar creating a rise in commodities and thus a rise in inflation. On the other hand, the possibility of a further interest rate hike might strengthen the USD to the point of puncturing a world debt bubble and thus creating economic chaos. (International debt is about 80% dollar denominated).Their solution is to keep the USD in a trading range of 94 to 100 measured against a basket of currencies known as the USD dollar index. It can be found on a website by name Kitco.com under "indicators". At the moment it stands at 96.2. COMMENT: Never mind all the "analysts" and "experts". A break above 100 will burst the debt bubble and a fall below 93-4 will signal a renewal of inflation. Keeping it simple....

6.Israeli software firm Cellebrite is helping the FBI break into an encrypted smartphone to help uncover details about the December 2015 shooting in San Bernardino, California, Reuters reported March 23, citing Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. Apple Inc. previously refused to decrypt the phone, which belonged to San Bernardino attacker Syed Farook, despite requests for help from the U.S. government. FBI and Apple were set to go to court over the disagreement on March 22, but the U.S. government asked to postpone the hearing after prosecutors found a third party to help the FBI access Farook's data. If Cellebrite can unlock the phone, the U.S. government may have found a way to sidestep the legal conundrums presented by its standoff with Apple. COMMENT: Those Israeli's!

7.Electric cars will be cheaper to own than conventional cars by 2022, according to a new report. The plummeting cost of batteries is key in leading to the tipping point, which would kickstart a mass market for electric vehicles, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) analysts predict. COMMENT: Sooner, rather than later, Coca Cola and Pepsi will be more valuable than oil.

8.Global use of the yuan for payments dropped in February, a sign of stagnation in the internationalisation of the Chinese currency, according to Swift, the payments services provider, the Financial Times reported March 24. COMMENT: It will be many years before the Chinese currency becomes an important reserve currency.

“Bravado may stir the crowd, but courage needs no audience.” ― T.F. Hodge

No man has a good enough memory to be a successful liar - Abraham Lincoln

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. Netanyahu cancels a meeting with Obama at the same time Biden arrives in Israel. This is only a symptom of a cooling relationship between these two allies. It, however is not the cause. Where once the US needed Israel as a strategic buffer in the cold war against Russia it now regards Israel only as one of three powers in the Mid-East...Turkey, Iran and Israel (all non-arab) countries. To be frank, Israel's kinship with the Pentagon remains strong, business interests between the two countries are flourishing and US aid to Israel is less than one percent of Israeli GDP. Israel relies only upon US political support at the UN and other forums and even that is unlikely to change much in a US election year. COMMENT: The world has and is changing. Israel is quietly preparing for the change.

2.Start-Up Israel: When a huge company like Sony buys an Israeli start-up for a rumored $220 million, the Israeli and Japanese governments — even if they had been reluctant in the past to do so — can no longer keep trade between the two countries a secret. Unable to beat ’em, then, the two governments are joining in the new trading relationship. And this week, officials from the Kansai region of Japan signed a memorandum of understanding on increasing trade and economic ties. COMMENT: BDO who? Read more: http://www.timesofisrael.com/new-israel-japan-agreement-follows-in-wake-of-sony-deal/?utm_source=Start-Up+Daily&utm_campaign=39368f5537-2016_03_11_SUI3_11_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fb879fad58-39368f5537-54596809

3.The European Union announced today that it was lowering their negative interest rates to an even more negative interest rate (obviously the first time did not work as expected). They have also decided to create more debt to improve liquidity. A short while ago Japan implemented the same policy with little result. Clearly someone has pushed a panic button as Central Banks manoeuvre to negotiate the rough waters of slowing economies. COMMENT: At the end of the day the markets will take over and create order out of the confusion of these central bank manipulations. 

4.Russia's defense budget will be cut by 5 percent in 2016, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatiana Shevtsova said, Reuters reported March 6. However, the decision to cut shows that even the armed forces are not immune to a slowing Russian economy, which has been hit by falling oil prices and Western sanctions. The 5 percent cut, if approved, would be the biggest reduction in defense spending since 2000, even as military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have made strengthening the military a greater priority for the Kremlin. 

5. Zeev Elkin Israeli MP: "The two-state solution has officially died and the future government of a Palestinian state, the Palestinian Authority, is on the verge of collapse." As the arab world continues to implode, hand in hand with the loss of their economic and political power, Israel needs to prepare for "the day after". One can only assume that Israel is prepared for the new reality and challenges facing her. As for the "Palestinian question"...that is no longer a question. The two state solution is dead in the water. The civilized world has more important matters to consider as the threat of political and extreme Islam infiltrates their societies. 

6.China will be able to project substantial offensive military power from artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea's disputed Spratly Islands within months, the director of U.S. national intelligence, James Clapper, said in a letter written to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in February, Reuters reported March 10. COMMENT: Regardless of increased Chinese activity in the South China sea, the US and its allies in the area have at least ten times the maritime fire power in that area and it will take the Chinese many years to catch up.

7.Stratfor: Extreme drought and low commodity prices are crippling economies across southern Africa. Because of their heavy dependence on commodities-based revenue, southern African governments have been among the hardest hit by low prices. As if this were not bad enough, the worst drought in more than three decades is threatening the region's food security. Together, the forces of nature and market have given southern Africa a particularly bleak economic outlook over the coming year. On its own, water scarcity is rarely the driving force behind social, political and economic crises. But within the perfect storm of drought, low commodity prices and historical poverty that southern Africa is now seeing, it can easily aggravate the problems already burdening the region.

8. Soccer: Leicester fans celebrated a late winner against Norwich so frenetically that they caused a small earthquake. And the Leicester fans, who have become renowned for their enthusiastic support, caused a mini-quake which registered 0.3 on the Richter scale. The activity was recorded by students who are studying geological science at the University of Leicester, and who placed some earthquake-detecting equipment at a primary school near Leicester's King Power Stadium.

If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you - Calvin Coolidge

Nobody is always a winner, and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn't play poker - Amarillo Slim
    

A Tale of Trump

Mauldin Economics: "Whether Donald Trump planned this brilliantly or was simply extraordinarily lucky doesn’t matter. He has found the third rail in American society. The lower-middle class doesn’t make enough to live a decent American life, and the middle class is only a little better off. Whether supporting or opposing Trump, it is essential to understand the foundations of his power and its limits. Trump makes no sense until his appeal to the lower-income white demographic is understood." 

Barack Obama and Republican elite gave birth to the inevitable accident (some would call it a natural disaster) known as Donald Trump. The 2008 real estate crash in the US gave rise to a sweet talking liberal democrat perfectly scripted by Hollywood as the first African American president in history. He arrived on a platform whereby main street would take priority over Wall Street. The big banks would pay the price of this collapse and Robin Hood was going to tax the rich and spread the wealth. The Republican elite and the Wall Street bankers quietly licked their lips. Out came the Obama chequebook and he basically doubled the national debt. Wall Street trebled, the big banks struck it rich and Main Street turned into Ferguson and Baltimore. The rich got richer, the poor even poorer and the middle class all but disappeared. Herein lies the political roots of a group of new/old Americans...the White Lower-middle class. 

Fact :According to the Census Bureau, the US homeownership rate dropped to 63.7% in 2015—that’s a whopping 5.3% fall from the 2004 peak of 69%.
At the same time, the renter rate has increased in every one of the 50 largest US cities since 2006, according to American Community Survey. Here’s what should shock you most about this: The homeownership rate has declined DESPITE the fact that interest rates have been at or near ZERO PERCENT for the past seven years... and that mortgage rates are at historic lows. (Thank You Tony Sagami). While all this was happening, Mr Obama was progressing with his favourite agendas...The LGBT community, The legalization of Marijuana, police brutality against African Americans, Hispanic immigration and politically correct discourse on Islam and all religion in general.

With this scenario in mind, consider how the forgotten White Middle-lower Class community was viewing this over a period of close on eight years. The hard working white blue collar worker could not make ends meet. Their religion and flag were under attack. The Republican elite were making a fortune out of the greenhorn Obama regime, so who cared about these communities. Their issues were being ignored, not only ignored but implicit in this PC behaviour was an underlying contempt for their beliefs. 

What is even more amazing is the shock and disbelief portrayed by the media every time Trump says something controversial. Even more shocking to them is the solid support from about 30% of Republicans and crossover Democrats. He is not talking to them. He is talking to a community that understands what he is saying simply because that is who they are. He speaks their language. When he shocked the PC media by referring to a journalist having her monthly...they laughed. When he hesitated over the KKK, they understood since many have racist tendencies. His aggressive and blunt attitude to others reflects a way of life in white blue collar America. His attacks on Mexico and Islam resonate with them. Even if he flip flops on immigration and torture, he is one of them. So when he tweets and quotes Mussolini "It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep.” they love it. I repeat...that is who they are.

Whether he succeeds or not, and I somehow doubt whether he represents the majority of Americans, we are witnessing the birth of a new force in American politics. Some might call it a revolution...other might consider it to be quite revolting.

Be careful what you wish for - you might get it - Tom Lauga.

You have to be careful of people who like to talk a big game but can't back it up -  Ray Lewis

In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on - Robert Frost

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.Saudi Arabia finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Oil revenues constitute 90% of the Saudi Budget. These funds are used not only to keep the arab world financially intact but also to keep the Saudi populace quiet and happy. At least 70% of Saudis are under the age of 30 and most work in the public sector at salaries higher than the private sector. The money will run out in a few years. There is trouble brewing in the desert.

2.As a conservative minded person, I have to say that the Republican debates on CNN and FOX are  disgraceful affairs. It appears that The Trumper has managed to drag all the candidates (Except for Kasich) down into the gutter with him. Watching this group of clowns entertain the trash makes one cringe and at the same time fear for this once great country. COMMENT: They are also becoming tedious and boring.

3.So now some members of OPEC are making noises about cutting production to shore up the price of oil. These days the markets are ignoring all the supply and demand basics. There appears to be a desperation about keeping the markets at present levels, no matter what. Sorry folks....no wall and no OPEC cuts. The markets will provide the answers.

4.Donald Trump: "Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In Fact, I even heard recently 42 percent." COMMENT: Wow! Ladies and gentlemen, I present you with the leading Republican candidate for the President of these United States of America. He's the man "who says it like it is" and many claim speaks the truth. 

5.Japan's economy contracted at a 1.4 percent annual pace in the final quarter of 2015, according to preliminary data released Feb. 15, Nikkei and AP reported. Compared to the third quarter of 2015, the economy shrank 0.4 percent. The contraction was Japan’s second of the year. The figures place further pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” economic agenda and reform drive. COMMENT: Deflationary pressures and negative interest rates are sending the world economy into the unknown. Watch the price of gold.

6.IDOMENI, Greece—A clampdown along Balkan borders has left 30,000 migrants trapped in Greece, marking a new stage in the humanitarian crisis swamping Europe. Countries up the immigration trail have clamped down and are only letting in a few hundred migrants a day. COMMENT: What has Greece done to deserve the last years? This a perfect example of a geopolitical and economic disaster.

7. Geopolitical futures: U.S. Navy officials announced on March 3 that a U.S. aircraft carrier group arrived in the South China Sea on March 1. However, more important was the U.S. military’s announcement also on March 3 that the United States, India and Japan will hold naval exercises in the Philippine Sea, northeast of the Philippines, in 2016. In many ways, the alliance emerging between these three countries is more significant than the presence of a new carrier group. COMMENT: The South China Seaway is a US national security priority. Watch for the action to pick up here. 

8. So for those who think the Donald is the original saviour...check this out

http://www.mediaite.com/online/donald-trump-fans-fooled-by-hitler-quotes-in-viral-video-hit/



Two things are infinite. The universe and human stupidity....and I'm not so sure about the universe - Einstein

Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King, Jr.