Friday, March 11, 2016

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. Netanyahu cancels a meeting with Obama at the same time Biden arrives in Israel. This is only a symptom of a cooling relationship between these two allies. It, however is not the cause. Where once the US needed Israel as a strategic buffer in the cold war against Russia it now regards Israel only as one of three powers in the Mid-East...Turkey, Iran and Israel (all non-arab) countries. To be frank, Israel's kinship with the Pentagon remains strong, business interests between the two countries are flourishing and US aid to Israel is less than one percent of Israeli GDP. Israel relies only upon US political support at the UN and other forums and even that is unlikely to change much in a US election year. COMMENT: The world has and is changing. Israel is quietly preparing for the change.

2.Start-Up Israel: When a huge company like Sony buys an Israeli start-up for a rumored $220 million, the Israeli and Japanese governments — even if they had been reluctant in the past to do so — can no longer keep trade between the two countries a secret. Unable to beat ’em, then, the two governments are joining in the new trading relationship. And this week, officials from the Kansai region of Japan signed a memorandum of understanding on increasing trade and economic ties. COMMENT: BDO who? Read more: http://www.timesofisrael.com/new-israel-japan-agreement-follows-in-wake-of-sony-deal/?utm_source=Start-Up+Daily&utm_campaign=39368f5537-2016_03_11_SUI3_11_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fb879fad58-39368f5537-54596809

3.The European Union announced today that it was lowering their negative interest rates to an even more negative interest rate (obviously the first time did not work as expected). They have also decided to create more debt to improve liquidity. A short while ago Japan implemented the same policy with little result. Clearly someone has pushed a panic button as Central Banks manoeuvre to negotiate the rough waters of slowing economies. COMMENT: At the end of the day the markets will take over and create order out of the confusion of these central bank manipulations. 

4.Russia's defense budget will be cut by 5 percent in 2016, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatiana Shevtsova said, Reuters reported March 6. However, the decision to cut shows that even the armed forces are not immune to a slowing Russian economy, which has been hit by falling oil prices and Western sanctions. The 5 percent cut, if approved, would be the biggest reduction in defense spending since 2000, even as military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have made strengthening the military a greater priority for the Kremlin. 

5. Zeev Elkin Israeli MP: "The two-state solution has officially died and the future government of a Palestinian state, the Palestinian Authority, is on the verge of collapse." As the arab world continues to implode, hand in hand with the loss of their economic and political power, Israel needs to prepare for "the day after". One can only assume that Israel is prepared for the new reality and challenges facing her. As for the "Palestinian question"...that is no longer a question. The two state solution is dead in the water. The civilized world has more important matters to consider as the threat of political and extreme Islam infiltrates their societies. 

6.China will be able to project substantial offensive military power from artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea's disputed Spratly Islands within months, the director of U.S. national intelligence, James Clapper, said in a letter written to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in February, Reuters reported March 10. COMMENT: Regardless of increased Chinese activity in the South China sea, the US and its allies in the area have at least ten times the maritime fire power in that area and it will take the Chinese many years to catch up.

7.Stratfor: Extreme drought and low commodity prices are crippling economies across southern Africa. Because of their heavy dependence on commodities-based revenue, southern African governments have been among the hardest hit by low prices. As if this were not bad enough, the worst drought in more than three decades is threatening the region's food security. Together, the forces of nature and market have given southern Africa a particularly bleak economic outlook over the coming year. On its own, water scarcity is rarely the driving force behind social, political and economic crises. But within the perfect storm of drought, low commodity prices and historical poverty that southern Africa is now seeing, it can easily aggravate the problems already burdening the region.

8. Soccer: Leicester fans celebrated a late winner against Norwich so frenetically that they caused a small earthquake. And the Leicester fans, who have become renowned for their enthusiastic support, caused a mini-quake which registered 0.3 on the Richter scale. The activity was recorded by students who are studying geological science at the University of Leicester, and who placed some earthquake-detecting equipment at a primary school near Leicester's King Power Stadium.

If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you - Calvin Coolidge

Nobody is always a winner, and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn't play poker - Amarillo Slim
    

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