The Chain Theory

Today's world is a function of economic globalism. It wasn't always like this. In the good old days of Trump, it was believed that when Wall Street sneezed the world caught cold. Somewhere along the line American capitalism found itself at a crossroads. America as a market place was saturated. Many families had a home, cars and all the latest electronic devices and toys. The only way to expand was to create new markets...and thus the global economy was born.

The global economy or the "Chain Theory" as named by yours faithfully, consists of five links. The USA, Europe, Japan, China and the emerging markets. The chain of course is only as strong as its weakest link(s). The most obvious but not the only weak link is the European Union. The geopolitical concept that 28 countries divided by history, language, tradition, ancient hatreds, culture and geography could unite under one currency and a single unelected leadership is doomed to failure. This European  leadership was sorely tested in 2008 when a corrupt and greedy US banking system fell apart at the seams. Trillions of dollar debt was created to save a system that was "too big too fail". Europe wobbled but somehow regained a woefully weak balance...once again by the creation of debt.

The next crack in the European link was a crisis between the hot blooded financially irresponsible Greeks and the cold blooded efficient Germans which eventually forced Greece into a generations long economic depression. The chain survived but the European link was further weakened. 

History is marked by a long list of decisions that lead to unintended consequences. Islam is in the process of imploding leading to civil wars and waves of refugees. The new EU in all its multicultural intellectualism welcomed these refugees with open arms. Try to picture 28 different cultures loosely based on Christianity and with a history of racism and war mongering trying to absorb millions of refugees into an economy already bedevilled by unemployment. Now add to the mixture refugees who have a different language, religion and no idea of what freedom and democracy mean. The stunned Europeans were beset by crime and rape (yes folks...rape) epidemics across the continent. The politically correct European leaders tried desperately to turn the other cheek. Just Google "refugees rape in Europe". 

The winds of change in Europe were emphasized by the Brexit vote that surprised many, but not all. Without thinking but acting instinctively the British jumped off the European Band wagon. Perhaps intuitively they understood, like many in Europe today, that in the long term the EU is a failed experiment by well meaning folks. Immediately in the aftermath of Brexit the EU issued an earth-shattering statement that was partially or wholly ignored by the press...perhaps they do not understand. George Friedman writes: "Today, foreign ministers from the European Union’s six founding member states issued an extraordinary statement, declaring that they will “recognize different levels of ambition amongst Member States when it comes to the project of European integration.” This was a landmark capitulation by the major European powers, accepting the idea that uniformity across the bloc is impossible and nations can choose the terms of membership.

The Chain has been further weakened. Brexit is another symptom of a failed experiment. Will the chain hold? Only time will tell, but my guess is that someone searching for a durable link in the chain will not find it in Europe. 

United we stand...divided we fall - Father John Dickinson

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it. - George Santayana

The problem with revolutions is that they always end right where they begin - Matthew Catania

When Money or debt is created in large amounts, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the middle class is doomed - The Peanut Gallery