Preposterous Predictions 2017

If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good. 

We continue to follow the money, the movement of refugees and the decline of modern day globalism.

1. Islam will continue to implode. However the architecture of the confrontation between Sunni and Shiite muslims will be aggravated by a heightening of the crisis between Christianity and Islam. We are at the beginning of the end of European multi-culturism and this trend will imbed itself this year.

2. The increase in nationalism will reverberate around the world as Trump attempts to forge a new version of the sixties. One of the unforeseen consequences of "Making America great again" could mean the lessening of the influence within the world community of a UN that has lost all sense of integrity.

3. The US  Senate and the House will develop a much more bi-partisan approach in some instances as they attempt to balance a new and impatient US president attempting to make some of the changes he promised while campaigning. Russia, immigration and human rights spring to mind.

4.Islamic Jihadists are not frightened by Trump. The fact that he has so many businesses at home and overseas and they all carry his name makes them an appealing target. We will witness multiple terrorist attacks on his assets. They know full well the infidel will retaliate and thats exactly what they want. To them he is a great mobilization tool and therefore this makes for a win-win situation as far as they are concerned.

5. The two state solution between Israel and the arabs will die a painless death equivalent to a diseased animal being put out of its misery. An inaudible sigh of relief from what is left of the Arab world might be heard at this time. Others will raise the possibility of a Palestinian State in Jordan. Regardless of the lip service, there wont be a Palestinian State any time soon.

6.The new Trump administration will have a bumpy landing something akin to watching a bull in a China shop (excuse the pun). The new president will fire at least two of his advisors before the year is out. 

7. The most affected by this new nationalist revolution is the European Union. Especially Holland, France, Italy and Germany. The effect of Brexit will only be felt this year as Theresa May moves forward with an aggressive Brexit strategy. As for the rest of Europe, it is clear that their politicians still do not understand the menace of Islam in their societies. The people do - and will vote with both hands. 

8. If 2015 and 2016 were years of market stability, 2017 will be a year of extreme volatility. As nationalism continues to expand, central banks will adopt a policy of "every country for themselves" and currencies will be their weapon of choice. The threat of trade wars will exacerbate currency devaluation, rising inflation, falling bond prices and interest rate rivalry. There is no such thing as a calm revolution...at least as far as the markets are concerned. The federal reserve will clash with the Trump administration over a stronger dollar.

9. In today's world perception is more important than truth. Vladimir Putin knows this. He took one look at "Useful idiot" Obama and went to work. For a country struggling financially he managed to portray Russia as a huge power, when it is definitely not. He saw Trump as a much more "useful idiot" than Clinton. The expressions "Never try to con a con man" or "You cannot fool all the people all the time" come to mind. The true nature of the relationship between these two men will surface in 2017.

9. In Israel the centre-right coalition will strengthen even as we witness the end of an era. The Bibi Netanyahu star will begin to fade this year.

10. Egypt will confront the growing partnership between ISIS and Hamas in the Sinai and Gaza. General Sisi, president of Egypt is not a man to be trifled with and he will meet force with even more force. He will be aided by Israel. Unlikely allies, but allies nevertheless.

11.Year in and year out I copy and paste the same forecast on Israel. "Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted glasses through which some may view this." This year is no different.

Have a great 2017