Thursday, May 10, 2018
The Iran Deal - Analysis
Six months after the Obama inauguration Israeli intelligence labelled Barack Obama as an "enemy of Israel” and this label was adopted by the Israeli cabinet. Israel then set about nullifying the Obama effect, knowing that congress support of Israel was almost across the board. In the eight Obama years Israel settled more settlers in Judea and Samaria than in all of modern Israeli history. Israel created suburbs and towns all around Jerusalem making Jerusalem for all intents and purposes indivisible. The Iran deal was supported across the board by Israeli intelligence, even while the politicians railed against it. A stronger Iran created new alliances for Israel in the Sunni world. A coalition of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States gave rise to a potential regional collaboration against the strengthening Iran. A mistaken Obama worldview and his naive mismanagement created an Arab winter and ISIS. Even better for Israel. As a result the two state solution died a natural death except in the UN which was dying its own natural death.
At this point two important developments changed the course of Israeli strategy vis a vis Iran and the US. Donald Trump was elected president and to put it bluntly, a policy of sucking up to the narcissistic American president was implemented. The second and more important development was that Iran diverted the billions meant for its people, to strengthening its military infrastructure in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. This was a mistake of epic proportions by the Iranian leadership and typical of religious tyrants bent on spreading a primitive fanatical doctrine by force and hatred. At the urging of Netanyahu, Trump withdrew from the Iranian deal. Using extreme aggression, Israel attacked different Iranian targets in Syria, culminating in an Iranian attempt to fire missiles at the Golan heights.
In response, Israel launched a massive attack on Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria. An IDF spokesman said, “We do not know yet the (Iranian) casualty count. But I can say that in terms of our purpose, we focused less on personnel and more on capabilities and hardware ... to inflict long-term damage on the Iranian military establishment in Syria. We assess it will take substantial time to replenish." He also said that Russia had been informed prior to the operation. Bottom line... at least 95% of Iran's military infrastructure in Syria has been destroyed. Even more far-reaching and critical, the Iranian currency, the rial has collapsed and inflation is about to spike. In this writers opinion, the regime of Ali Khamenei is doomed and it is a matter of "when" and not "if".
Sometimes it is important to watch what leaders do and not what they say. For example, Bibi Netanyahu has visited Putin at least 8 times in the last two years. This week, Netanyahu laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier together with Putin and the Serbian president Vucic in Moscow, while the Israeli attack on Syria was unfolding. It is also an interesting fact that Netanyahu is the only world leader to speak to both Putin and Trump on a weekly basis. Add to that the fact that Oil and gas make up 70% of Russias exports and Russia’s government is more likely to run a surplus for the first time in almost three years – if the average oil price for this year comes in at over $53. At the moment, as a result of the crisis with Iran, the price is $70 a barrel....that man Putin!
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose - Bill Gates
Accept the challenges so that you can feel the exhilaration of victory - George S. Patton
Victory is the child of preparation and determination - Sean Hampton
Thursday, May 3, 2018
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1. Business Insider: Israeli officials cited in a Ynetnews report characterized the missile strike on Friday by the US, the UK, and France on suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria as a failure. Multiple Israeli government and military sources suggested the strike was not effective in hurting Syria's ability to conduct chemical attacks. These officials also criticized President Donald Trump's talking about the strike beforehand. The latest strike most likely didn't change anything on the battlefield in Syria, and it's hard to know how much of the chemical weapons stockpile it hit. COMMENT: Another win!
2.An overnight missile attack against weapons storage bases in Syria destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface rockets, a regional official told The New York Times Monday. The official, from the regional alliance of Iran, Syria, Iran and its proxy Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, said the strikes killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians. COMMENT: Note to Trump from the IDF...That's how it is done Mr Trump.
3.Ehud Yaari: Israel and Iran are on course for a collision in the near future. Indeed, a military clash that could expand well beyond Syrian territory appears almost inevitable. In particular, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is determined to transform Syria into a platform for a future war against Israel, whereas leaders of the Jewish state have sworn to prevent what they often describe as the tightening of a noose around Israel’s neck. GPF: Tehran is facing resistance at home as well, most recently with strikes in Iranian Kurdistan, farmers striking in Isfahan added to Iran’s socio-economic problems – high unemployment, inflation in the price of certain staple products and currency depreciation. COMMENT: The disappointing expectation that Iranians had from the nuclear "deal" is feeding local unrest as Iran squanders economic advantages in Syria,Iraq,Lebanon and Yemen.
4. The James Comey book is out. He should have called it "The Last True American". For me, the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are as mad as hell at him is an indicator that he is an honest broker. COMMENT: The GOP, who tries to brand Comey as a “leaker”, leaked his memos in less than 40 minutes.
5 .China’s main strategic challenge is that the US controls the seas. Geography means China’s imports and exports must traverse coastal bottlenecks the US could easily close if it wished. That’s intolerable if your goal is to be a superpower, and that’s definitely what Xi wants. One Belt, One Road is the answer. It will link the Eurasian land mass into a giant trading bloc with Europe at one end and China at the other. The project will open land routes the US cannot interdict, thereby letting China take what it feels is its rightful place of leadership. The scope is breathtaking, but Beijing is determined to make it happen. COMMENT: Add to that the "Made in China 2025" project and it is clear that China is initiating a serious economic challenge to the US.
6. Dr. Ian Bremmer: Last week was James Comey week here in the United States. The former FBI director came out swinging, announcing that Donald Trump isn't morally fit to be president. Note to Comey: 1) We knew that. 2) We elected him anyway. What does that say about the United States? That much of the electorate is morally unfit? If so, which part? The part that voted for Trump? The (larger) part that stayed home and didn't cast a ballot in the most important election in decades? The part that continued to vote for a bunch of establishment candidates who allowed the system to progress to the point where someone like Trump could actually be elected? COMMENT: Dr Bremmer recommends buying gold.
7. So Trump thinks he is taking on China in a Tariff war. In reality, he is actually taking on the whole world. For example, China is about to slap a tariff on US soybeans. Its as if Trump thinks that US soybeans are so delicious that the Chinese are desperate for "Made in the US" soybeans. Stratfor: Today, China is a major market for Brazil's soybean exports, which account for over 40 percent of its total exports to the Asian country. And because of Beijing's trade spat with the United States and ambitious infrastructure investments in Brazil, Brazilian soybean exports to China are poised to keep growing. COMMENT: Life is tough in the fast lane. And now Trump is talking about re-entry into TPP.
“Our great democracies still tend to think that a stupid man is more likely to be honest than a clever man, and our politicians take advantage of this prejudice by pretending to be even more stupid than nature made them.” ― Bertrand Russell
“He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.” ― George Bernard Shaw
“Today's public figures can no longer write their own speeches or books, and there is some evidence that they can't read them either. ” ― Gore Vidal
“Go to heaven for the climate and hell for the company.” ― Benjamin Franklin Wade
1. Business Insider: Israeli officials cited in a Ynetnews report characterized the missile strike on Friday by the US, the UK, and France on suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria as a failure. Multiple Israeli government and military sources suggested the strike was not effective in hurting Syria's ability to conduct chemical attacks. These officials also criticized President Donald Trump's talking about the strike beforehand. The latest strike most likely didn't change anything on the battlefield in Syria, and it's hard to know how much of the chemical weapons stockpile it hit. COMMENT: Another win!
2.An overnight missile attack against weapons storage bases in Syria destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface rockets, a regional official told The New York Times Monday. The official, from the regional alliance of Iran, Syria, Iran and its proxy Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, said the strikes killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians. COMMENT: Note to Trump from the IDF...That's how it is done Mr Trump.
3.Ehud Yaari: Israel and Iran are on course for a collision in the near future. Indeed, a military clash that could expand well beyond Syrian territory appears almost inevitable. In particular, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is determined to transform Syria into a platform for a future war against Israel, whereas leaders of the Jewish state have sworn to prevent what they often describe as the tightening of a noose around Israel’s neck. GPF: Tehran is facing resistance at home as well, most recently with strikes in Iranian Kurdistan, farmers striking in Isfahan added to Iran’s socio-economic problems – high unemployment, inflation in the price of certain staple products and currency depreciation. COMMENT: The disappointing expectation that Iranians had from the nuclear "deal" is feeding local unrest as Iran squanders economic advantages in Syria,Iraq,Lebanon and Yemen.
4. The James Comey book is out. He should have called it "The Last True American". For me, the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are as mad as hell at him is an indicator that he is an honest broker. COMMENT: The GOP, who tries to brand Comey as a “leaker”, leaked his memos in less than 40 minutes.
5 .China’s main strategic challenge is that the US controls the seas. Geography means China’s imports and exports must traverse coastal bottlenecks the US could easily close if it wished. That’s intolerable if your goal is to be a superpower, and that’s definitely what Xi wants. One Belt, One Road is the answer. It will link the Eurasian land mass into a giant trading bloc with Europe at one end and China at the other. The project will open land routes the US cannot interdict, thereby letting China take what it feels is its rightful place of leadership. The scope is breathtaking, but Beijing is determined to make it happen. COMMENT: Add to that the "Made in China 2025" project and it is clear that China is initiating a serious economic challenge to the US.
6. Dr. Ian Bremmer: Last week was James Comey week here in the United States. The former FBI director came out swinging, announcing that Donald Trump isn't morally fit to be president. Note to Comey: 1) We knew that. 2) We elected him anyway. What does that say about the United States? That much of the electorate is morally unfit? If so, which part? The part that voted for Trump? The (larger) part that stayed home and didn't cast a ballot in the most important election in decades? The part that continued to vote for a bunch of establishment candidates who allowed the system to progress to the point where someone like Trump could actually be elected? COMMENT: Dr Bremmer recommends buying gold.
“Our great democracies still tend to think that a stupid man is more likely to be honest than a clever man, and our politicians take advantage of this prejudice by pretending to be even more stupid than nature made them.” ― Bertrand Russell
“He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.” ― George Bernard Shaw
“Today's public figures can no longer write their own speeches or books, and there is some evidence that they can't read them either. ” ― Gore Vidal
“Go to heaven for the climate and hell for the company.” ― Benjamin Franklin Wade
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