The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.Ben-Dror Yemini: The Muslim world is undergoing a massive upheaval. Arab identity is disappearing. National identity is falling apart. The identity on the rise is Islamic, tribal and sectarian. Death and destruction have reached monumental proportions. Muslims are murdering hundreds of thousands of Muslims. None of the bloody conflicts – between Shias and Sunnis, and between Sunnis and Sunnis – have anything to do with Israel or the Palestinians. Most of those perpetrating the killings don't even know where Israel is on the map. COMMENT: A Two-State solution in today's Israel is the wishful thinking of the deranged. Truthfully I have no solution, but my priority is definite. Keep Israel safe!

2.The chairman of the left Zionist Union on his Facebook page: "I refuse to join those applauding the agreement with Iran, because the truth is it keeps me awake at night,” Cabel wrote. “President Obama promises that if the Iranians cheat, the world will know, but isn’t that exactly what the Americans promised after the agreement with North Korea?” He said that when it comes to Iran, there is no Left or Right or coalition or opposition in Israel, only Israelis. “When a crazy religious regime with a proven track record of terrorism and cheating receives permission to get that close to a nuclear bomb, I am very worried,” Cabel wrote, and then adding more criticism of Obama. “The fact that the man who is in charge of making sure the deal won’t be broken has a proven record of mocking his own redlines, makes me even more worried.” COMMENT: The Peanut Gallery agrees with every word.

3.Isis has reportedly begun beheading captives after taking over the majority of a large Palestinian refugee camp in Syria. UN officials said scenes on the ground in the Yarmouk camp just south of Damascus were “beyond inhumane”, as rebels from the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra vied for control of the camp, which houses around 18,000 civilians. COMMENT: Imagine if these guys took control of Ramallah. Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-accused-of-beheading-captives-in-palestinian-refugee-camp-yarmouk-as-advance-towards-syrian-capital-damascus-continues-10158061.html

4. The deal with the Iranian Caliphate is first and foremost a direct threat to western civilizations. As far as Israel is concerned, the threat is less nuclear, but more immediate. The Iranians are choking economically and are desperate for funds to continue their regional expansion. Obama is in the process of opening this gate to the joy of the celebrating Iranians, Hizbollah, Hamas, Somalia, Houthis of Yemen and Syria. So what if they discontinue their nuclear plans (which is seriously doubtful). Iran is in a win-win situation thanks to the famous Obama doctrine of appeasement.

5. “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years,” Obama said in September 2014 (yeah man...only six months ago) as he outlined his strategy to degrade and destroy ISIS. COMMENT: Two failed states and the US cannot even evacuate its own citizens. Islam is imploding. The only questions left are ...Is the Obama doctrine imploding as well? Is this an imploding presidency? Why should anyone trust this man?

6.Stratfor: The Russian economy has been in steep decline for more than a year and is slipping into another recession. A constellation of factors is causing the decline, including lower oil prices, the West's sanctions, and sour Western investment attitudes because of the Ukraine crisis. This has led to massive capital flight of around $160 billion in 2014 and an estimated $80 billion in 2015; a volatile ruble that lost 40 percent of its value in late 2014; and a likely federal budget deficit of approximately $45 billion in 2015. COMMENT: The Russians are a different proposition to the weak western civilizations. They have survived much worse than this.

7.WSJ: Oil prices surged to their biggest gains in two months on signs of rising demand in both the U.S. and Asia. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose $3, or 6.1%, to $52.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the U.S. benchmark’s biggest day of gains since Feb. 3 and its highest settlement since Feb. 17. COMMENT: take note that since the fall to $43 a barrel, the price of oil is now moving sideways.

Principle Number One: The Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions 

The Balance of Power - Part Two

In part one we examined the US strategy (if you can call it that) as regards The Middle East. We described how The US is in the process of moving assets to the Russia Indo-China arena's to balance the growing power emanating from this area. If someone thinks the Russians are a spent force its time to re-evaluate that assumption. The more Russia has its back to the wall, the more dangerous it becomes. But that is a subject for another day. Where does Israel fit into this constantly changing picture?

The personal vendetta between kings Bibi and Barack might make great headline news on CNN, but frankly, the verbal animosity between the two is marginal to the diverging interests of both sides. As the US slowly contrives to create a "balance" in the region, Israel finds itself in a world of sectarian Islamic violence and changing political alliances. The Americans appear confused as to who the greater danger to their interests are, ISIS or Iran. Iran is taking full advantage of the situation. Netanyahu said it all in his speech to congress. Unfortunately nobody in a decision making capacity is listening. Iran, the Shiite Caliphate now controls Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. They have taken Yemen and are well on their way to controlling most of Iraq.

The ISIS mania is spreading like a wildfire. Every small victory over this Sunni Caliphate is greeted with new gains across the region. A short while ago ISIS was a small marginal group of lunatics in Syria. Today they have footprints in Iraq, Tunisia, Yemen, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Sunni Arab leaders are watching these developments with alarm. The double threat of Iranian nuclear capability and ISIS is making for strange new bedfellows. From an American point of view, they can drink their oil. So who are they turning to? Believe it or not...Israel. Without Israel, neither King Abdullah of Jordan or Abbas, president of the non-existent Palestinian entity, would last very long. Egypt and Israel have created a powerful alliance. The seven Arab kingdoms of the Persian Gulf are quietly talking to Israel and a little known fact is the growing relationship between Israel and Nigeria (note how Nigeria votes at the UN).

These positive developments are tempered by multiple threats from Iranian satellites, Hizbollah in Lebanon/Golan Heights and Hamas in Gaza. No one seems worried about Gaza these days and it is interesting to see how Egypt is choking the life out of the so-called "innocent Palestinian victims" and nobody seems to care. Least of all the morality policemen Kerry and Obama. Hizbollah have their hands full with Syria and cannot afford to open another front at present. However their tens of thousands of missiles are still a threat not to be taken lightly. A larger threat to Israel is the potential infiltration of ISIS and/or Iranian players into the Arab populations of Judea and Samaria.

On a personal note, when I look back at the incompetent Obama years (anybody remember the Arab Spring?), Israel has not done too badly. The economy and the population continue to grow, the western world is getting a dose of Jihad, there is zero possibility of a two state solution regardless of who governs Israel (the issue is only one of tactics) and most important, Israel remains a vibrant democracy in a sea of madness.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty ― Winston S. Churchill 

A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on  ― William S. Burroughs

I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them ― Thomas Jefferson       

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. New reports have emerged on Washington and Tehran's "special understanding" on operations against Islamic State militants in Iraq. The details emerge as U.S. and Iraqi officials warn that actions should be carefully conducted to avoid worsening sectarian tension. The U.S.-led coalition has not conducted airstrikes to coordinate with Iraq's latest offensive in Sunni-dominated Salah al-Din province. Iran is leading this offensive. COMMENT: BO cannot make up his mind who the enemy is. Even Peter Pan knew not to smile at a crocodile. Mr President FYI they are all crocodiles, and they are all smiling at you.

2.  The United Arab Emirates has recalled its ambassador to Sweden, an unnamed Swedish government official said March 18, The Daily Star reported. The source did not disclose why the United Arab Emirates made the move. Last week, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador to Sweden after calling Stockholm's criticism of the Saudi human rights record an interference in its internal affairs. COMMENT: The Swedes call this their Progressive foreign policy. The Swedish attempt to sell human rights to Islam could be termed laughable if it wasn't so pathetic. 

3.Egypt evidently understands that it is no longer regarded by the US as a strategic player in the region. To be fair, the US is trying to remove itself from the region. In the last 3 weeks Egypt has negotiated a missile deal with Russia, purchased grain from Russia and allowed BP to initiate a gas project on condition the joint venture partner is a Russian company. COMMENT: Egypt is also negotiating for the purchase of nuclear technology and spy satellites from the Russians. This appears to be a major policy change.

4.Nigerian Islamic terror group Boko Haram swears formal allegiance to ISIS and posts an oath on Twitter, The Associated Press reports. COMMENT: Population of Nigeria is 50% Muslim. 38% are Sunni and 12% Shia. The other 50% are Christians. COMMENT: Let the games begin! 

5. China will continue to seek more economic and diplomatic cooperation with Russia despite the sanctions Moscow faces over its involvement in the Ukraine crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, France24 reported March 8. The two countries will try to grow bilateral trade to $100 billion by improving financial and energy ties. Other initiatives aimed at improving relations between the countries include constructing a natural gas pipeline, high-speed rail lines and economic development projects. COMMENT: The Chinese couldn't give two hoots about the Ukraine.

6.The People of Israel have spoken loudly and clearly. David Horovitz: Unloved by the Obama administration, relentlessly criticized by ostensibly friendly European governments, attacked day after day by substantial sections of the Hebrew media. Netanyahu did not just scrape back into office. He swept his critics aside and he trounced his rivals." COMMENT: Plainly Israeli's in the vast majority distrust Obama more than they distrust Bibi. As for the Israeli left.....like the price of oil...a collapsing commodity. 

7.(Bloomberg) -- A decision by Whiting Petroleum Corp., the largest producer in North Dakota’s Bakken shale basin, to put itself up for sale looks to be the first tremor in a potential wave of consolidation as $50-a-barrel prices undercut companies with heavy debt and high costs. COMMENT: Its difficult to understand why so many analysts believe that US interest rates will rise this year. The US dollar might continue to rise since the US is the strongest economy amongst an exhausted cluster of punch drunk competitors. BTW all of them rushing to weaken their own currencies...but raise US rates?

In spite of warnings, nothing much happens until the status quo becomes more painful than change - Laurence J. Peter

The hardest thing to believe when you're young is that people will fight to stay in a rut, but not to get out of it - Ellen Glasgow

The Balance of Power - Part One

The United States under Obama no longer regards Israel as the super strategic ally that it did once upon a time. This is part of a long term US strategy that has been playing out over many years, even decades. On the face of it the strategy looks logical from an American point of view. However, like most geopolitical strategies they are usually flawed by the law of unintended consequences. This one especially. To understand that speeches by Netanyahu or Obama have zero effect on strategy we have to start long before either of them sermonized a word. Quite frankly, if a speech is all that it takes to shred a relationship, then that relationship has long ago been shredded.

It might come as a surprise to some, but this so-called "We have always stood behind you" relationship only began quite recently. In the fifties, Israel's weapons were supplied by Russia via Czechoslovakia. Up until 1967 weaponry was provided by France. The survival of Israel was irrelevant to the US, neither here nor there. After 1967, the French stepped away and the Russians resupplied Syria and Egypt with arms. A Russian port in Egypt threatened the US Sixth Fleet. The cold war was at its peak and the US needed to balance Soviet intentions. Of course, who better than little Israel, desperate to survive and who could be easily controlled. So began the age of American aid to Israel and the "relationship" was upgraded.

By 1974 US aid was 20% of Israel's GDP. (By comparison today it is 1%). The end of this romance arrived quietly with the collapse of Communism and has been replaced by a marriage of convenience. The Americans no longer feared Russia and despite a resurgence of US support after 9/11, the Americans slowly began to shift in another direction. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. At the same time China began to flourish economically and threatened shipping lanes through the South China Sea. US resources were needed to check Chinese designs. So how does one do this... withdraw from the Middle East without losing influence and move to check the Chinese? The only logical way is to create a balance of power between four countries in the Middle East. Those countries are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel. Israel might still be ahead in the pecking order, but not by much. A difficult but flawed strategy.

George Friedman: "Israel wanted the United States focused on Israel as its main partner, but the United States has much wider and more complex relations to deal with in the region that required a more nuanced approach." Netanyahu asked for more stringent sanctions on Iran. This will not happen. The US regards ISIS as a strategic threat to its interests in the region and the struggle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria requires some form of US and Iranian co-operation.

This is the root of the divergence on Iran.

This strategy is based on the Muslim countries taking responsibility, boots on the ground responsibility, against groups like ISIS, using US air support. The trick is to keep the rival players weak enough so they have to cooperate. On the face of it this seems to be working. CNN provides free advertising. An enemy is concocted. At one time this enemy had 15000 men riding around on Toyota trucks. One weeks work for the IAF. Not so today. ISIS has now gifted the surprised Americans a great opportunity to implement this hands-off policy. Turkey is slowly stepping up. Egypt has suggested an Inter-Arab force. Saudi Arabia suspiciously watches Iran. Turkey and the Saudis have meetings (just last week) and today Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said his country would support Iraq in an operation to retake Mosul from the Islamic State. So whats wrong with the strategy? Well for one, the US cannot afford a loss to ISIS and they cannot afford Iran taking control of Iraq. Obama and co are better known for mismanagement than balancing acts.

Islam is imploding economically and militarily. Countries like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria and Libya are embroiled in civil wars. There are water and food shortages in in all these countries. Life is worthless unless you are one of 140 million potential Jihadists. Then one dies for virgins or whatever. The flawed assumption is that with a mix of appeasement and distance from the conflict, Americans are generally safe. Quite the mistake! A tidal wave of fleeing Muslim immigration is sweeping Europe. Islam as a religion is taking hold in North America. 

The blunder is in believing that Islam should be grateful to be a part of western civilization. Nothing could be further from the truth. They abhor all other religions as demonstrated by the no go zones in Europe. Every State in the US has ongoing FBI investigations into potential jihadist activity.

It goes without saying that there will be a bad deal with Iran simply because Iran has no intention of abiding by the dictates of the infidel known as the Great Satan. They are just a slightly more sophisticated version of ISIS with a stock of ICBM's in the pantry....and the US needs them in the war against ISIS. Its either that or US boots on the ground. The first or possibly the second foreign sponsored bomb to explode in any US City will shatter all these naive attempts at balance. The barbarians are no longer at the gate...they are amongst us.

Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demands - Unknown

There are some people that if they don't know, you can't tell 'em - Louis Armstrong

The Fuss About Oil

Its old news that the price of crude oil has fallen from around $110 to $43 dollars a barrel in a very short time, giving world markets quite the heart attack (along with yours faithfully). Since then the price has been hovering above $50 a barrel. Below is a six month chart of crude oil.

There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories about this event, one of the most popular

being that President Obama or even the US initiated the fall in the prices. My immediate reaction was one of surprise. "Really?" I thought...If Obama or the US initiated the collapse 

in the price of crude, why did they need to place sanctions on Russia? They could have just sat back and smiled. Why would anybody attempt to damage the US oil and shale industry which has been a key to kick-starting the US economic revival? Finally, the sixty four thousand dollar question. How was this done? The answer is simple. It cannot be done in a free market democracy (unless of course one believes that Hollywood is reality). That then begs the question of what exactly is the tale behind the drama?

Lets look at the facts. In 2008 US oil production was 5 million barrels a day. Today the production is 9 million barrels a day thanks to a boom in shale oil that contributes about 3 million barrels a day. At the same time strong growth in emerging markets like China and India resulted in major energy producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia increasing and diverting their production to these emerging economies. Together with alternative energies, increased oil and gas production and a slowdown in emerging markets a rare "perfect wave"  turned into a tsunami of supply. Amazingly, both Russia and Saudi Arabia increased production and continued to sell oil into this tsunami. Why? 

Its all about market share and a chess game where the Saudi Kingdom avoids a check mate and turns the match to its advantage. Russia, another player, has foreign currency reserves of about $400 billion. The Saudis have double that amount. With these cash reserves they can easily outlast their competitors and creates an opportunity to consolidate their market share. OPEC clearly has collapsed and its every man for himself. Iran, the Saudi rival needs oil revenue to survive. At these prices, they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The US Shale industry requires at least $65-70 a barrel to be cost effective and they are bleeding profits. The alternative energy field is almost bankrupt, unable to compete. So today the game is all about protecting market share.

Bloomberg: "The collapse of oil prices by more than half since June has forced major producers and drillers to cut more than $40 billion in spending and fire 50,000 workers. The number of oil-drilling rigs working onshore has declined by a third since October." Today the US announced record oil stocks and Saudi Arabia has upped production to more than ten million barrels a day. Initially the oil price fell to below $50 a barrel and then recovered to about $52 a barrel. Basically the oil market showed remarkable strength in the face of what could be considered really bad oversupply news. One conclusion might be that the market has discounted the bad news and it is already reflected in the price. For the strong of heart this might even be an opportunity to invest in oil as US producers cut back at a rapid pace, durable producers hold onto market share and the weaker ones disappear into the sunset. Are we witnessing the dawn of an approaching supply demand balance? Time will tell. This drama is still unfolding and a checkmate is not yet in sight. 

When two opposite points of view are expressed with equal intensity, the truth does not necessarily lie exactly halfway between them. It is possible for one side to be simply wrong ― Richard Dawkins 

When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong - Humphrey Neill

Barbarians at the Gate

The writing is on the wall. Whatever the Greek outcome with Europe, the wheels have been set in motion. The Europe we have seen in the last decades is no more. The European Union wagon and its wheels will continue to squeak, run, break an axle and then fall apart. The German driver will crack the whip but as my Dad (bless him) used to say "you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink". Or as the Americans say..."Elvis has left the building".

Whether we like it or not, history has a way of repeating itself. The European countries have never really believed there could be a marriage of convenience with Germany. It's more like kissing your sister. And then there are the multi-cultural policies of Europe. "We will let the Muslims immigrate, teach them our culture, and they will magically turn into Europeans. We will integrate the Ukraine with us, because our way is vastly superior to the Russian way". What arrogance.

As we are slowly finding out, "our way" might be superior, but nobody is buying it. As the economies of  Southern Europe crash, unemployment in some of these countries is higher than during the Great depression of the thirties. Muslim immigration is on the rise, taking jobs from Europeans. "No Go Zones" are all over Europe. Anti-establishment parties are growing more popular by the day. The man made money creation experiment known as  "Quantitave Easing" (QE) by the Americans, Japanese and now Europe is creating economic bubbles and social differences. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer while the middle classes are slowly eroded. This is an incredible breeding ground for Jihadists and their cronies. Manna from heaven.

The history of UN votes against Israel has been well documented. Leading the charge have been the multi-cultural Europeans. The name of the game is appeasement. The "peasants" of Islam need to watch and learn the art of Western culture. Truth be told, they have watched and learned. Just not what they were intended to learn. They learned that western society has many "convenient idiots". They learned that the weak underbelly of western society is saturated with fear. They smiled as the politically correct left allied themselves with the the poor under trodden Islamic masses. The great minds of Europe reached out to the crocodile: "We want you to have what we have. We will teach you about women's rights, gay rights and human rights". Then the law of unintended consequences took over.

When ISIS conquered Mosul, the first order of the day was to establish high speed internet connections, so the population could watch beheadings in hi-def. Nothing sells better than fear in most cultures, so thank the heavens for CNN. Fear sells advertising, creates monsters, helps us to turn to our leaders in time of need and all in the name of freedom of the press. We have a right to know! Then following the terrorist attacks against Jewish and Christian values in Belgian, France and Denmark, the panicked politicians explained to us wide eyed innocents that the attacks were not religious in nature, and nobody in particular had been targeted. Wow!

Thereupon city officials called off Braunschweig's (Germany) carnival parade only 90 minutes before it was scheduled to begin after uncovering what they called a "specific threat of an Islamist attack," BBC reported Feb. 15. Some 250,000 people attend the city's parade every year. The move came hours after a gunman killed 2 civilians and wounded 5 police officers in separate attacks in Copenhagen. This must be the European multi-cultural way of dealing with the threat. Good luck to them. The wheels are coming off and the barbarians are at the gate. Believe it!

How people treat you is their karma; how you react is yours-Wayne Dyer

The wise man does at once what the fool does finally-Niccolo Machiavelli

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. George Friedman about his new book "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe" -  The sense that Europe is shifting was visible in the European Central Bank's decision to ease austerity by increasing liquidity in the system. In my view, this is too little too late; although quantitative easing might work for a recession, Southern Europe is in a depression. This is not merely a word. It means that the infrastructure of businesses that are able to utilize the money has been smashed, and therefore, quantitative easing's impact on unemployment will be limited. It takes a generation to recover from a depression. COMMENT: Its interesting to note that Greece was NOT included in the European QE plan....signs of the future.

2. On Feb. 13, Argentine Federal Prosecutor Gerardo Pollicita requested that a federal judge allow him to continue an investigation into President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's alleged role in a cover-up of Iran's role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires. Pollicita is broadly linked through professional connections to potential conservative presidential candidate Mauricio Macri. COMMENT: This might be political, but six gets you one that this story is going to become Hollywood material.

3. Ephraim Halevy (former Israeli intelligence chief): If Netanyahu were to win the upcoming elections and continue with his current policies toward the Palestinians, a third intifada is unavoidable, Halevy indicated. In a scathing interview, he also criticized the prime minister for propagating fear instead of hope, deploring Netanyahu’s constant mentions of the Holocaust and decrying his reported comparison of today’s Jews of France with pre-Inquisition Spanish Jewry.
COMMENT: The half-full cup for Bibi is empty. Is he wrong? ISIS, Hizbollah and Hamas clearly are filling their cups.
Read more: http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-mossad-boss-fear-mongering-netanyahu-is-antithesis-of-churchill/#ixzz3Qsq7XMdo

4. Former Mossad chief: I don't trust Netanyahu, his actions will cost us.
Meir Dagan says PM's speech won't change Obama's mind on Iran, adds Sharon had arguments with US but kept it quiet while Netanyahu insists on making fights public. COMMENT: Iran is the Shiite version of ISIS. Obama is their type of a "useful idiot". Bibi has made his point and should now stay at home, unless he intends to join the Republican party.  read more: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4620516,00.html

5. Stratfor: It is not hard to imagine the disaster that would ensue if the United States were to export 50 percent of its GDP, and half of it went to Canada and Mexico. A free-trade zone in which the giant pivot is not a net importer can't work. And that is exactly the situation in Europe. Its pivot is Germany, but rather than serving as the engine of growth by being an importer, it became the world's fourth-largest national economy by exporting half its GDP. That can't possibly be sustainable. COMMENT: Unfortunately, history has a way of repeating itself. Especially in Europe.

6. Gatestone: Sweden is now number two on the global list of rape countries. According to a survey from 2010, Sweden, with 53.2 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants, is surpassed only by tiny Lesotho in Southern Africa, with 91.6 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants. COMMENT: Do I need to comment? read more: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape

7.Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states in southeastern Brazil are experiencing the worst drought in a century. The nearly 30 million people living in the extended municipal complex of Sao Paulo have been dealing with extremely low reservoir levels for more than a year. In fact, the water reserves have fallen so low that they are now below the dead level, the point at which water must be pumped up to reach the pipes connecting the reservoir to the greater distribution system. COMMENT: India has enough water for the population, but not the infrastructure to reach all. Looks like water is becoming more and more vital than oil.

“Evil always wins through the strength of its splendid dupes; and there has in all ages been a disastrous alliance between abnormal innocence and abnormal sin.” 

― G.K. Chesterton.

Fill your mouth with marbles and make a speech. Every day reduce the number of marbles in your mouth and make a speech. You will soon become an accredited public speaker -- as soon as you have lost all your marbles - Brooks Hays.