Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Saudi Arabia finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Oil revenues constitute 90% of the Saudi Budget. These funds are used not only to keep the arab world financially intact but also to keep the Saudi populace quiet and happy. At least 70% of Saudis are under the age of 30 and most work in the public sector at salaries higher than the private sector. The money will run out in a few years. There is trouble brewing in the desert.
2.As a conservative minded person, I have to say that the Republican debates on CNN and FOX are disgraceful affairs. It appears that The Trumper has managed to drag all the candidates (Except for Kasich) down into the gutter with him. Watching this group of clowns entertain the trash makes one cringe and at the same time fear for this once great country. COMMENT: They are also becoming tedious and boring.
3.So now some members of OPEC are making noises about cutting production to shore up the price of oil. These days the markets are ignoring all the supply and demand basics. There appears to be a desperation about keeping the markets at present levels, no matter what. Sorry folks....no wall and no OPEC cuts. The markets will provide the answers.
4.Donald Trump: "Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In Fact, I even heard recently 42 percent." COMMENT: Wow! Ladies and gentlemen, I present you with the leading Republican candidate for the President of these United States of America. He's the man "who says it like it is" and many claim speaks the truth.
5.Japan's economy contracted at a 1.4 percent annual pace in the final quarter of 2015, according to preliminary data released Feb. 15, Nikkei and AP reported. Compared to the third quarter of 2015, the economy shrank 0.4 percent. The contraction was Japan’s second of the year. The figures place further pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” economic agenda and reform drive. COMMENT: Deflationary pressures and negative interest rates are sending the world economy into the unknown. Watch the price of gold.
6.IDOMENI, Greece—A clampdown along Balkan borders has left 30,000 migrants trapped in Greece, marking a new stage in the humanitarian crisis swamping Europe. Countries up the immigration trail have clamped down and are only letting in a few hundred migrants a day. COMMENT: What has Greece done to deserve the last years? This a perfect example of a geopolitical and economic disaster.
7. Geopolitical futures: U.S. Navy officials announced on March 3 that a U.S. aircraft carrier group arrived in the South China Sea on March 1. However, more important was the U.S. military’s announcement also on March 3 that the United States, India and Japan will hold naval exercises in the Philippine Sea, northeast of the Philippines, in 2016. In many ways, the alliance emerging between these three countries is more significant than the presence of a new carrier group. COMMENT: The South China Seaway is a US national security priority. Watch for the action to pick up here.
8. So for those who think the Donald is the original saviour...check this out
http://www.mediaite.com/online/donald-trump-fans-fooled-by-hitler-quotes-in-viral-video-hit/
Two things are infinite. The universe and human stupidity....and I'm not so sure about the universe - Einstein
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King, Jr.
Friday, March 4, 2016
Friday, February 26, 2016
THE END OF AN ERA
Once upon a time the Arab world was the place of romantic myths about princes on white horses, beautiful dancing maidens and mysterious tales of adventure under the stars. The discovery of black gold in modern times changed all that as we witnessed how economic power in the wrong hands can turn those same hands into a chokehold on civilization. Insignificant countries like Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya and others abruptly seized the moment to fan the flames of religious fanaticism and tyranny. Not understanding that all good things come to an end the leaders of the Arab nations did not invest this windfall in their citizens. They proceeded to display all the same characteristics associated with an easy money generation.
The UN was engulfed by arrogant, greedy deceitful and pompous men in flowing arab garb and keffiyahs, inebriated with their newfound political and economic power. They enjoyed the cavalcade of infidels cowering and pandering to their every word and need. They even created the so-called "Palestinian" cause and cynically pounded the world with the "plight" of the refugees, supplying them with guns, political power, but no peaceful solution to the manufactured embryo. Even though a solution was available at the stroke of a financial pen. This culminated in their puppet leader, an armed Yasir Arafat addressing the UN assembly with the threat: "Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand." Extremely dramatic and while the liberal media went into surround sound raptures Mr Arafat was filling personal bank accounts in Switzerland with Western donated funds meant for the so-called Palestinian cause.
The self appointed leader of this abominable coalition was the wealthiest cog in the wheel...Saudi Arabia, a coalition of Bedouin tribes turned kingdom. This kingdom amassed a sizeable fortune via its nationalized oil company ARAMCO. The fortune was used to expand arab influence on the world stage at the expense of the freedom loving democracies on our planet. But like all good things that are abused, they come to an end. The capitalist world takes no prisoners and the arab world is being taught a well earned and harsh lesson. Instead of taking care of future generations and providing education, healthcare, food and infrastructure they went on a weapons buying binge in order to protect the few against the many. Inevitably the price of oil fell from $100 to $30 a barrel. The picnic ended.
The Saudis are looking over their shoulders at the three non-arab powerhouses in the area, Israel, Turkey and Iran. Especially the latter two. All that weaponry is being put to good use in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. A new player in the form of ISIS is terrorizing all and sundry. The Saudi's are caught between a rock and a hard place. Ninety (90) percent of their budget is oil income based on a much higher price for oil. The Saudis use this income to placate their population and support countries like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen and Sudan as well as anti-Assad groups in Syria. But now the money is running out. Oil production has to be kept at a high output to protect market share. Ninety (90%) percent of Saudis work for the government. Seventy (70) percent are under the age of 30...a newer generation. In the Eastern part of the country (where the oil is) the population is mostly shiite and allied with Iran.
And now the Saudi's are considering selling parts of ARAMCO (the largest oil company in the world and a Saudi treasure). For those that are not aware....this is a development of monumental consequence.
The Russians and Americans are aware of the Saudi conundrum and have distanced themselves from the kingdom. Russia towards Iran and the US towards Turkey. This is a case of Saudi Arabia yelling "follow me...I'm right behind you (Obama style)". Nobody is following. It would be fair to assume that civil war or another form of upheaval in the not too distant future in the land of sand and oil is in the stars. The era of blackmail, greed and hubris is over.
“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”
― Mark Twain
“Declare your jihad on thirteen enemies you cannot see -egoism, arrogance, conceit, selfishness, greed, lust, intolerance, anger, lying, cheating, gossiping and slandering. If you can master and destroy them, then you will be ready to fight the enemy you can see.” - Al-Ghazali
Thursday, February 11, 2016
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1.Scott Stewart (Stratfor): As long as smugglers are able to make huge quantities of money hauling drugs and people north and guns and bulk cash south, they will be impossible to stop. Barriers may redirect the flow, but the powerful law of supply and demand will ensure that no matter what barriers are put into place, creative smugglers will find ways to circumvent them. Besides shifting the flow to areas that are not fenced, smugglers have also simply cut holes in the fence to pass through in sectors where there are barriers. They also use ladders and vehicle ramps to scale the fence, dig tunnels to pass under it and employ a variety of means — as complex as ultralight aircraft and catapults and as simple as tossing items by hand — to pass or launch contraband over the fence. COMMENT: The border is 3200km long...and what about the sea? The amount of BS coming out of this US election is incredible.
2.George Friedman: In an interview with Bloomberg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addressed the various crises currently facing the European Union, saying, “The EU is like the orchestra playing on the Titanic.” I don’t think anything captures the reality in Europe better than that quote, save for one thing. The orchestra on the Titanic knew that the ship was sinking and that they were going to die. They played in defiance of their fate. COMMENT: The Europeans appear to be in denial. Its a matter of time until they separate into two groups....the six founders of the EU and the rest.
3.Does anyone remember our Israeli hero Haran? If not, pls read http://inctruth.blogspot.ca/2011/12/miracle-continues-israeli-hero.html To cut a long story short, Haran is now embarking on another adventure in his bid to change the world. I have checked this out with education buffs and it appears that this product is simple and essential. Pls read http://www.olliesblocks.com COMMENT: Keep it simple parents!
4.The price of gold is on an upwards charge. The global economy appears to be gripped by fear. The Central Bank shenanigans of the past decade have run out of gas. Focus on the banking systems. Italy is at the forefront, but those with exposure to energy debt must also be preparing for a shake-up. One would think that transport companies would be relishing the fall in oil prices. On the contrary, what are they going to do with cheap oil if the economy is slowing and sales have fallen through the floor? The cargo shipping industry is almost dormant. COMMENT: In this kind of situation protection of capital as opposed to profits is a priority!
5.Russia is moving its state of the art air force airpower (SU-35's) and anti-aircraft systems (Pantsyr-S2's) into Syria. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been making noises about a ground incursion into Syria. Now the silence is shattering. The Syrians and Russians are on the attack and Assad's forces are taking back large swathes of territory. COMMENT: Putin is giving Obama a lesson on how to back an ally. Look out for a cease fire call once Assad and co have been secured.
6.One does not have to wonder why the South African economy is in a shambles when listening to the president of the ANC and of South Africa, Jacob Zuma: “When you vote for the ANC, you are also choosing to go to heaven. When you don’t vote for the ANC you should know that you are choosing that man who carries a fork… who cooks people. When you are carrying an ANC membership card, you are blessed. When you get up there, there are different cards used but when you have an ANC card, you will be let through to go to heaven.” COMMENT: I'm speechless...and if you know me that in itself is an achievement.
7.Rumour has it that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have decided to form a unity Government. That in itself is nothing new. One of the conditions is for the PA to place its units at the Rafah crossing to Egypt. This would allow for Egypt to allow the crossing to open. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has announced that he would resign and support a national unity government if Hamas and Fatah successfully reached an agreement. Even more interesting is that at the same time Israel and Turkey have moved forward towards a renewal of diplomatic ties. COMMENT: Hamas must be in a bad way if they agree to this.
There is much to be said for failure. It is more interesting than success - Max Beerbohm
Don't believe the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing - it was here first - Robert Jones Burdette
1.Scott Stewart (Stratfor): As long as smugglers are able to make huge quantities of money hauling drugs and people north and guns and bulk cash south, they will be impossible to stop. Barriers may redirect the flow, but the powerful law of supply and demand will ensure that no matter what barriers are put into place, creative smugglers will find ways to circumvent them. Besides shifting the flow to areas that are not fenced, smugglers have also simply cut holes in the fence to pass through in sectors where there are barriers. They also use ladders and vehicle ramps to scale the fence, dig tunnels to pass under it and employ a variety of means — as complex as ultralight aircraft and catapults and as simple as tossing items by hand — to pass or launch contraband over the fence. COMMENT: The border is 3200km long...and what about the sea? The amount of BS coming out of this US election is incredible.
2.George Friedman: In an interview with Bloomberg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addressed the various crises currently facing the European Union, saying, “The EU is like the orchestra playing on the Titanic.” I don’t think anything captures the reality in Europe better than that quote, save for one thing. The orchestra on the Titanic knew that the ship was sinking and that they were going to die. They played in defiance of their fate. COMMENT: The Europeans appear to be in denial. Its a matter of time until they separate into two groups....the six founders of the EU and the rest.
3.Does anyone remember our Israeli hero Haran? If not, pls read http://inctruth.blogspot.ca/2011/12/miracle-continues-israeli-hero.html To cut a long story short, Haran is now embarking on another adventure in his bid to change the world. I have checked this out with education buffs and it appears that this product is simple and essential. Pls read http://www.olliesblocks.com COMMENT: Keep it simple parents!
4.The price of gold is on an upwards charge. The global economy appears to be gripped by fear. The Central Bank shenanigans of the past decade have run out of gas. Focus on the banking systems. Italy is at the forefront, but those with exposure to energy debt must also be preparing for a shake-up. One would think that transport companies would be relishing the fall in oil prices. On the contrary, what are they going to do with cheap oil if the economy is slowing and sales have fallen through the floor? The cargo shipping industry is almost dormant. COMMENT: In this kind of situation protection of capital as opposed to profits is a priority!
5.Russia is moving its state of the art air force airpower (SU-35's) and anti-aircraft systems (Pantsyr-S2's) into Syria. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been making noises about a ground incursion into Syria. Now the silence is shattering. The Syrians and Russians are on the attack and Assad's forces are taking back large swathes of territory. COMMENT: Putin is giving Obama a lesson on how to back an ally. Look out for a cease fire call once Assad and co have been secured.
6.One does not have to wonder why the South African economy is in a shambles when listening to the president of the ANC and of South Africa, Jacob Zuma: “When you vote for the ANC, you are also choosing to go to heaven. When you don’t vote for the ANC you should know that you are choosing that man who carries a fork… who cooks people. When you are carrying an ANC membership card, you are blessed. When you get up there, there are different cards used but when you have an ANC card, you will be let through to go to heaven.” COMMENT: I'm speechless...and if you know me that in itself is an achievement.
7.Rumour has it that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have decided to form a unity Government. That in itself is nothing new. One of the conditions is for the PA to place its units at the Rafah crossing to Egypt. This would allow for Egypt to allow the crossing to open. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has announced that he would resign and support a national unity government if Hamas and Fatah successfully reached an agreement. Even more interesting is that at the same time Israel and Turkey have moved forward towards a renewal of diplomatic ties. COMMENT: Hamas must be in a bad way if they agree to this.
There is much to be said for failure. It is more interesting than success - Max Beerbohm
Don't believe the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing - it was here first - Robert Jones Burdette
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Sneaking Suspicions
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant. Perhaps a Peanut Gallery on Steroids.
1.Central Banks are panicking. Latest figures show US oil reserves at record levels. On the news the price of oil crashed. The following day a rumour was making the rounds that Russia and OPEC were getting together to limit oil supply. The Russians denied the rumour but the oil price continued to rise. So who was the mysterious buyer? Some say Central Banks understand that a continued fall in the price will lead to pandemonium in the market place....and they are buying. COMMENT: If they are the the buyers, its definitely not for profit. Sharp downward moves in market places are usually detrimental to economies. Therefore a slower retreat is required and and Central Banks often co-ordinate such moves.
2.If one is searching for further evidence of stress in world markets, look no further than the bank shares in most countries, especially those exposed to energy debt. Down they go! COMMENT: The creaking door is opening!
3.In December, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in The US. This continued to prop up the USD. Was it a mistake? Suspicious minds definitely wondered. Now out of the blue we see two days of strong falls in the USD. And this after Japan joined Germany, Switzerland and others announcing negative interest rates on the Japanese Yen. Logically, if one has to pay interest to hold a currency (instead of receiving interest), that currency should fall in value. Just the opposite is happening. COMMENT: The US Fed might be contemplating reversing that interest rate rise.
4. How does it happen that the US raises rates while the rest of the world is stagnant or lowering theirs? Some Americans have a mindset that America is the world. Only half of Americans have travelled outside the US. Only about 30% hold passports. Perhaps the Fed is of the same mindset and therein lies a potential answer to this particular conundrum (apologies to my American friends, especially since I love the US of A).
5.The price of gold has jumped in the last days. Gold usually rises when there is systemic instability (like banking systems in trouble) or perhaps when countries are in danger of becoming failed states (oil producers that rely on oil income as their major source of income). Gold definitely rises when cheap money is created or about to be created. The explanation could be more simple. Most currencies are paying negative interest rates. The zero interest rate on gold might be attractive. COMMENT: When markets move in what appears to be an irrational manner, somebody usually knows something us normal beings don't. How does all this add up? Any ideas? Its fun trying to connect the dots.
6.I've been watching the US elections in Iowa and now New Hampshire. For heavens sake...who votes for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders? (Some of the others don't cover themselves in glory either.) Most of the stuff they sprout are unfeasible empty promises. It doesn't seem to faze anyone. A lot of the younger folk appear to be irrationally hopeful or uncontrollably angry. As for the adults in the room... COMMENT: When paper money is printed to "solve" a problem, historically the populace loses faith in the paper and especially in the perpetrators. Loss of faith under any circumstance can lead to dire consequences.
7. For some of those who think I am suffering from concussion...pls watch.
https://youtu.be/uOQ39HIqP8s
Life is a crisis-so what! - Malcolm Bradbury
I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much - Mother Teresa
1.Central Banks are panicking. Latest figures show US oil reserves at record levels. On the news the price of oil crashed. The following day a rumour was making the rounds that Russia and OPEC were getting together to limit oil supply. The Russians denied the rumour but the oil price continued to rise. So who was the mysterious buyer? Some say Central Banks understand that a continued fall in the price will lead to pandemonium in the market place....and they are buying. COMMENT: If they are the the buyers, its definitely not for profit. Sharp downward moves in market places are usually detrimental to economies. Therefore a slower retreat is required and and Central Banks often co-ordinate such moves.
2.If one is searching for further evidence of stress in world markets, look no further than the bank shares in most countries, especially those exposed to energy debt. Down they go! COMMENT: The creaking door is opening!
3.In December, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in The US. This continued to prop up the USD. Was it a mistake? Suspicious minds definitely wondered. Now out of the blue we see two days of strong falls in the USD. And this after Japan joined Germany, Switzerland and others announcing negative interest rates on the Japanese Yen. Logically, if one has to pay interest to hold a currency (instead of receiving interest), that currency should fall in value. Just the opposite is happening. COMMENT: The US Fed might be contemplating reversing that interest rate rise.
4. How does it happen that the US raises rates while the rest of the world is stagnant or lowering theirs? Some Americans have a mindset that America is the world. Only half of Americans have travelled outside the US. Only about 30% hold passports. Perhaps the Fed is of the same mindset and therein lies a potential answer to this particular conundrum (apologies to my American friends, especially since I love the US of A).
5.The price of gold has jumped in the last days. Gold usually rises when there is systemic instability (like banking systems in trouble) or perhaps when countries are in danger of becoming failed states (oil producers that rely on oil income as their major source of income). Gold definitely rises when cheap money is created or about to be created. The explanation could be more simple. Most currencies are paying negative interest rates. The zero interest rate on gold might be attractive. COMMENT: When markets move in what appears to be an irrational manner, somebody usually knows something us normal beings don't. How does all this add up? Any ideas? Its fun trying to connect the dots.
6.I've been watching the US elections in Iowa and now New Hampshire. For heavens sake...who votes for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders? (Some of the others don't cover themselves in glory either.) Most of the stuff they sprout are unfeasible empty promises. It doesn't seem to faze anyone. A lot of the younger folk appear to be irrationally hopeful or uncontrollably angry. As for the adults in the room... COMMENT: When paper money is printed to "solve" a problem, historically the populace loses faith in the paper and especially in the perpetrators. Loss of faith under any circumstance can lead to dire consequences.
7. For some of those who think I am suffering from concussion...pls watch.
https://youtu.be/uOQ39HIqP8s
I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much - Mother Teresa
Thursday, January 28, 2016
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1."The yuan will keep depreciating as time goes by, so we should swap the money we have in hand into tangible assets," Li Xiaodong, chairman of Canaan Capital, tells his audience, while exhorting them to pull their money out of China while the going is still good and pour it into property in Spain and Portugal. Canaan Capital is one of a swarm of asset management firms leaping to profit from Beijing's latest policy headache: the swelling crowd of Chinese individuals and firms trying to get their money out of the world's second biggest economy as its growth slows to a quarter-century low. COMMENT: Another side effect of a slowing Chinese economy....the money is running. Follow the money.
2.Reuters: Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is expected to report a 1.3 percent increase in iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, its slowest ever and a far cry from the double-digit growth investors have come to expect. COMMENT: The competition is catching up with Apple. They will either have to lower prices or possibly introduce monthly payment plans in conjunction with the larger telephone co's.
3.Stratfor: India is the world's largest defense importer, accounting for 15 percent of all global imports over the past five years. However, the primary source of these weapons may soon change. Russia has long had privileged access to the Indian market, providing some 70 percent of India's weapons in volume over the last half decade. However, even as India invests heavily in upgrading and modernizing its armed forces, several pending deals between Moscow and New Delhi have stalled. COMMENT: As if Russia does not have enough problems.
4. Bloomberg: After years of lambasting other countries for helping rich Americans hide their money offshore, the U.S. is emerging as a leading tax and secrecy haven for rich foreigners. By resisting new global disclosure standards, the U.S. is creating a hot new market, becoming the go-to place to stash foreign wealth. Everyone from London lawyers to Swiss trust companies is getting in on the act, helping the world’s rich move accounts from places like the Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands to Nevada, Wyoming, and South Dakota. COMMENT: Clearly when you are king of the jungle, nobody argues with you. At the moment North America is the safest geopolitical continent to keep ones fortune safe...tax free!
5.According to an unnamed official, Sweden plans to expel up to 80,000 immigrants seeking asylum, AFP reported Jan. 27. Details are still emerging about the timing of the potential move, which was leaked to the public just a day after a Swedish aid worker was stabbed to death by a fifteen-year-old boy at the center for young refugees where she worked. Sweden's plan would fall in line with the actions of many European countries that have recently taken steps to limit or stop the flow of migrants across their borders. COMMENT: Looks like liberal Sweden are starting to feel the heat in the real world. Maybe they should ask Trudeau to take them.
6.Exactly five years ago the western liberal media and their messiah, Barack Obama, announced to the world that the great liberal revolutions of the Middle East had at long last begun. They labelled it with a romantic Hollywood title "The Arab Spring". That was then and this is now five years later. According to the UN, over 250,000 people have died in the Syrian civil war. Iraq has become a sectarian battleground on the verge of splitting into three parts. Yemen and Libya are failed states. The Islamic State has evolved from a terrorist group to a budding totalitarian religious state that controls wide swaths of territory and has thus far withstood all the hot air and airstrikes that the West and Russia have thrown at it. Millions of refugees of the conflicts are pouring into Europe and wherever else they can find safe harbour. COMMENT: Now thats one for the Obama legacy.
7.Shares of Italian banks continued to fall Jan. 28, a day after Italy reached a deal on debt with the European Commission, ANSA reported. By midday, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index had declined 5.3 percent. Trading of shares at a number of banks, including Banca Popolare di Miliano, UniCredit, Monte Paschi and Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna, was halted after declining 5 percent or more. COMMENT: Watch for more fallout in this crisis. Italy is much larger than Greece.
8.Dark clouds on the horizon. Informed (or possibly uninformed) sources are indicating that a Turkish - US initiative to invade Northern Syria is in the offing. The Turks would supply the ground forces while the US would provide air cover. The Turks would then join local militia and create a buffer against ISIS and against Kurdish forces also battling ISIS. The potential flashpoint is a possible Russian alliance with the Kurds and a confrontation with Turkish-US forces (BTW both sides battling ISIS). Comment: Quite the salad on this menu.
Politics is not a game for naive thinkers. You may go in as an idealist, but you certainly won't come out as one - Honeysuckle Weeks
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers -Edgar Fiedler
Beware when the Great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson
1."The yuan will keep depreciating as time goes by, so we should swap the money we have in hand into tangible assets," Li Xiaodong, chairman of Canaan Capital, tells his audience, while exhorting them to pull their money out of China while the going is still good and pour it into property in Spain and Portugal. Canaan Capital is one of a swarm of asset management firms leaping to profit from Beijing's latest policy headache: the swelling crowd of Chinese individuals and firms trying to get their money out of the world's second biggest economy as its growth slows to a quarter-century low. COMMENT: Another side effect of a slowing Chinese economy....the money is running. Follow the money.
2.Reuters: Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is expected to report a 1.3 percent increase in iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, its slowest ever and a far cry from the double-digit growth investors have come to expect. COMMENT: The competition is catching up with Apple. They will either have to lower prices or possibly introduce monthly payment plans in conjunction with the larger telephone co's.
3.Stratfor: India is the world's largest defense importer, accounting for 15 percent of all global imports over the past five years. However, the primary source of these weapons may soon change. Russia has long had privileged access to the Indian market, providing some 70 percent of India's weapons in volume over the last half decade. However, even as India invests heavily in upgrading and modernizing its armed forces, several pending deals between Moscow and New Delhi have stalled. COMMENT: As if Russia does not have enough problems.
4. Bloomberg: After years of lambasting other countries for helping rich Americans hide their money offshore, the U.S. is emerging as a leading tax and secrecy haven for rich foreigners. By resisting new global disclosure standards, the U.S. is creating a hot new market, becoming the go-to place to stash foreign wealth. Everyone from London lawyers to Swiss trust companies is getting in on the act, helping the world’s rich move accounts from places like the Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands to Nevada, Wyoming, and South Dakota. COMMENT: Clearly when you are king of the jungle, nobody argues with you. At the moment North America is the safest geopolitical continent to keep ones fortune safe...tax free!
5.According to an unnamed official, Sweden plans to expel up to 80,000 immigrants seeking asylum, AFP reported Jan. 27. Details are still emerging about the timing of the potential move, which was leaked to the public just a day after a Swedish aid worker was stabbed to death by a fifteen-year-old boy at the center for young refugees where she worked. Sweden's plan would fall in line with the actions of many European countries that have recently taken steps to limit or stop the flow of migrants across their borders. COMMENT: Looks like liberal Sweden are starting to feel the heat in the real world. Maybe they should ask Trudeau to take them.
6.Exactly five years ago the western liberal media and their messiah, Barack Obama, announced to the world that the great liberal revolutions of the Middle East had at long last begun. They labelled it with a romantic Hollywood title "The Arab Spring". That was then and this is now five years later. According to the UN, over 250,000 people have died in the Syrian civil war. Iraq has become a sectarian battleground on the verge of splitting into three parts. Yemen and Libya are failed states. The Islamic State has evolved from a terrorist group to a budding totalitarian religious state that controls wide swaths of territory and has thus far withstood all the hot air and airstrikes that the West and Russia have thrown at it. Millions of refugees of the conflicts are pouring into Europe and wherever else they can find safe harbour. COMMENT: Now thats one for the Obama legacy.
7.Shares of Italian banks continued to fall Jan. 28, a day after Italy reached a deal on debt with the European Commission, ANSA reported. By midday, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index had declined 5.3 percent. Trading of shares at a number of banks, including Banca Popolare di Miliano, UniCredit, Monte Paschi and Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna, was halted after declining 5 percent or more. COMMENT: Watch for more fallout in this crisis. Italy is much larger than Greece.
8.Dark clouds on the horizon. Informed (or possibly uninformed) sources are indicating that a Turkish - US initiative to invade Northern Syria is in the offing. The Turks would supply the ground forces while the US would provide air cover. The Turks would then join local militia and create a buffer against ISIS and against Kurdish forces also battling ISIS. The potential flashpoint is a possible Russian alliance with the Kurds and a confrontation with Turkish-US forces (BTW both sides battling ISIS). Comment: Quite the salad on this menu.
Politics is not a game for naive thinkers. You may go in as an idealist, but you certainly won't come out as one - Honeysuckle Weeks
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers -Edgar Fiedler
Beware when the Great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Preposterous Predictions 2016
If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good.
Lets follow the money and the refugees
1.Stock markets and investors have become accustomed to markets continually recovering as a result of central bank manipulations. This will end in 2016 as markets come to terms with reality. The international credit bubble created as a result of the 2008 crisis will slowly disintegrate, punctured by collapsing raw materials demand and the demise of the oil market. The economic downturn will have a profound effect on our world and we predict a primary bear market in stocks and the continuation of the primary bull market in the US Dollar.
2.The slowdown in China will continue at an increased pace. Potentially China can go one of two ways. Either it breaks down into separately governed regions (Coastal vs Inland) or a ruthless dictatorship will attempt to control economic dissatisfaction within the Chinese population. The Chinese currency (the Yuan) will continue to be devalued in an attempt to jumpstart fading Chinese exports.
3.Historically the movement of refugees has created new geopolitical realities. The mass movement of refugees from unstable regions into the European Union is a geopolitical weapon of change that will create political, economic and violent chaos. Anti-immigration and anti-EU parties will strengthen and the movement towards fragmentation will be reflected in the value of the European symbol of unity, the Euro.
4.The Italian banking system will come under serious pressure this year accompanied by friction between old enemies France and Germany. All it takes are a few terrorist attacks to understand that the so-called liberal European multi-culturism is just a cover for a deeper and darker psyche lurking in the shadows.
5.Russia will weather an economic meltdown (the Russian people are made of sterner stuff than most) as its ruble crumbles, but not without chaotic conditions amongst neighbouring countries who rely on Russian support (and energy) for their economic wellbeing. Russia will also have to overcome an AIDS epidemic of major proportions.
6. Apple will lose its shine as competing companies close the technological gap. They might even have to consider lowering their prices.
7.Regardless of who the candidates might be, the Republicans will take the White House this year. President Obama's naive foreign policy of shaking hands with a crocodile, his alienation of US allies, his creation of a massive debt bubble and his inability to unite the American people will signal the demise of big government for the near and distant future. As for his legacy....need I say more?
8.Climate change will have positive (yes, positive) and negative results as the trend continues. Countries like Canada and parts of the US and Europe will definitely have the advantage, whereas parts of the Middle East and Africa (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and others) will continue to pay the price.
9. Islam will continue to implode leading to a Sunni-Shiite face off. The violence being the product of dictatorships, religious fanaticism and the inability by over a billion people to compete economically. The stream of refugees will turn into a flood creating change wherever they flow.
10.North and South America will be the least affected by the refugee fallout, being continents geographically insulated from the deluge. Unless of course some politician decides to play saviour and opens the door.
11.Last year I wrote about Israel..."Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this." This year all that is needed is to "copy and paste"
Humanity has survived worse - Anonymous
Yesterday's answer has nothing to do with todays problem - Bill Gates
Lets follow the money and the refugees
1.Stock markets and investors have become accustomed to markets continually recovering as a result of central bank manipulations. This will end in 2016 as markets come to terms with reality. The international credit bubble created as a result of the 2008 crisis will slowly disintegrate, punctured by collapsing raw materials demand and the demise of the oil market. The economic downturn will have a profound effect on our world and we predict a primary bear market in stocks and the continuation of the primary bull market in the US Dollar.
2.The slowdown in China will continue at an increased pace. Potentially China can go one of two ways. Either it breaks down into separately governed regions (Coastal vs Inland) or a ruthless dictatorship will attempt to control economic dissatisfaction within the Chinese population. The Chinese currency (the Yuan) will continue to be devalued in an attempt to jumpstart fading Chinese exports.
3.Historically the movement of refugees has created new geopolitical realities. The mass movement of refugees from unstable regions into the European Union is a geopolitical weapon of change that will create political, economic and violent chaos. Anti-immigration and anti-EU parties will strengthen and the movement towards fragmentation will be reflected in the value of the European symbol of unity, the Euro.
4.The Italian banking system will come under serious pressure this year accompanied by friction between old enemies France and Germany. All it takes are a few terrorist attacks to understand that the so-called liberal European multi-culturism is just a cover for a deeper and darker psyche lurking in the shadows.
5.Russia will weather an economic meltdown (the Russian people are made of sterner stuff than most) as its ruble crumbles, but not without chaotic conditions amongst neighbouring countries who rely on Russian support (and energy) for their economic wellbeing. Russia will also have to overcome an AIDS epidemic of major proportions.
6. Apple will lose its shine as competing companies close the technological gap. They might even have to consider lowering their prices.
7.Regardless of who the candidates might be, the Republicans will take the White House this year. President Obama's naive foreign policy of shaking hands with a crocodile, his alienation of US allies, his creation of a massive debt bubble and his inability to unite the American people will signal the demise of big government for the near and distant future. As for his legacy....need I say more?
8.Climate change will have positive (yes, positive) and negative results as the trend continues. Countries like Canada and parts of the US and Europe will definitely have the advantage, whereas parts of the Middle East and Africa (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and others) will continue to pay the price.
9. Islam will continue to implode leading to a Sunni-Shiite face off. The violence being the product of dictatorships, religious fanaticism and the inability by over a billion people to compete economically. The stream of refugees will turn into a flood creating change wherever they flow.
10.North and South America will be the least affected by the refugee fallout, being continents geographically insulated from the deluge. Unless of course some politician decides to play saviour and opens the door.
11.Last year I wrote about Israel..."Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this." This year all that is needed is to "copy and paste"
Humanity has survived worse - Anonymous
Yesterday's answer has nothing to do with todays problem - Bill Gates
Friday, November 27, 2015
The Peanut Gallery
Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.
1. The European Union was created out of a desire to end hostilities between European countries. There do not appear to be grey areas in Europe with regards to war or peace. So this time they decided on a peaceful strategy where the gold at the end of the rainbow would be economic prosperity for all. After 2008 that all went south and I think it is fair to say that Europe was in crisis long before the refugee influx had any influence. The stream of refugees heading to Europe from the Middle East is turning into a river. Islam is imploding and the strategy of turning Europe into the new homeland for muslims is taking shape. The EU policy of open borders (The Schenghen treaty) appears to be crumbling. COMMENT: Folks this can no longer be termed a simple crisis. This is the onset of a revolution. Watch the Euro currency for further indications.
2.Michael Lewitt, author of The Credit Strategist: Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, the yield curve is flattening, ObamaCare is collapsing, global trade is plummeting and terrorism is spreading across the globe. The high yield credit markets are sending distress signals and 10-year swap spreads are negative. Energy companies are going out of business faster than you can say “frack” and trillions of dollars of European bonds are again trading at negative interest rates. The world is drowning in more than $200 trillion of debt that can never be repaid while European and Japanese central bankers promise to print more money and the Federal Reserve is being dragged kicking-and-screaming into raising interest rates by a paltry 25 basis points. COMMENT: Somewhere along the line markets will begin to reflect this reality. Be careful.
3.The Canadian Liberal government will not meet its self-imposed Dec. 31 deadline to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada. Instead, 10,000 will be transported to Canada by the end of 2015 and the rest will be resettled in the first two months of 2016.(If you believe that...good on you!) Priority for government refugees will be given to families, women at risk, members of sexual minorities and single men only if they are identified as members of an LGBT community. QUESTIONS: Is this not the definition of profiling? How will they identify Gay men or women at risk? How will they identify female suicide bombers in this privileged group? Will these poor people land up in Muslim ghettoes similar to those in Europe? How long will it take for Canadian Liberals to wake up and smell the coffee?
4.So Mister Looney Toons himself, Donald Trump saw thousands of arabs celebrating the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey. CNN is having a field day with Trump and his nonsense while ignoring the fact that Palestinians and arabs all over the Muslim world cheered the Paris attacks (Google it). QUESTION: Who is more delusional....Trump or CNN?
5.The Western media is aghast at what they have created and the cover up continues. Each time they discuss ISIS one gets the sense that they are terrified of this scum (and of course conveying this fear to their audience). Every atrocity committed by the savages is broadcast over and over thus spreading the ISIS message of fear and terror. Its also great for ratings and advertising. It's a scratch my back and I'll scratch yours type of thing. Strange bedfellows working hand in hand. Whatever happened to the good ol' Palestinian question and lambasting Israel?
6. If anyone will take care of ISIS, it will be Putin and the Russians. They are not inhibited by the PC Obama style of warfare and (to boot), they have boots on the ground to supplement their other forces. Besides the Syrian army, there are now increasing numbers of Russian armed forces on the ground. COMMENT: If this French government hopes to have the slimmest possibility of survival come election time, they will have to adopt the Russian attitude to warfare.
7. So the Turks thought they were sending a message to Putin by knocking down one of his planes. They say they warned the Russian plane ten times. According to most sources, the Russian plane was over Turkey for 17 seconds. Ten times? Stupid mistake. Russia has now suspended buying fruit and veggies from Turkey and is importing from Israel. On another note, there is excellent co-operation between the IAF and the the Russian air force. QUESTION: Does Israel see an alternative to Assad? I doubt it. So while Obama is pushing for elections in Syria (Elections...really?) he should be more worried about his legacy.
8.It is seldom that a large company in trouble can have a geopolitical effect. However this holds true for Volkswagen, the largest auto company in the world. Germany is Europe's engine, and its economy depends largely on its exports, which equal 45 percent of its gross domestic product. The automotive sector makes up 17 percent of Germany's exports, the highest portion from any single industry. Volkswagen's woes may expand to Germany's automotive sector, which may in turn expand to the German export machine, dimming the one bright light in Germany's plan for Europe — its own performance. COMMENT: Watch for contagion.
Feeling sorry for those who want you to feel sorry for them is like giving an alcoholic a gift certificate to a liquor store - Guy Finley
1. The European Union was created out of a desire to end hostilities between European countries. There do not appear to be grey areas in Europe with regards to war or peace. So this time they decided on a peaceful strategy where the gold at the end of the rainbow would be economic prosperity for all. After 2008 that all went south and I think it is fair to say that Europe was in crisis long before the refugee influx had any influence. The stream of refugees heading to Europe from the Middle East is turning into a river. Islam is imploding and the strategy of turning Europe into the new homeland for muslims is taking shape. The EU policy of open borders (The Schenghen treaty) appears to be crumbling. COMMENT: Folks this can no longer be termed a simple crisis. This is the onset of a revolution. Watch the Euro currency for further indications.
2.Michael Lewitt, author of The Credit Strategist: Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, the yield curve is flattening, ObamaCare is collapsing, global trade is plummeting and terrorism is spreading across the globe. The high yield credit markets are sending distress signals and 10-year swap spreads are negative. Energy companies are going out of business faster than you can say “frack” and trillions of dollars of European bonds are again trading at negative interest rates. The world is drowning in more than $200 trillion of debt that can never be repaid while European and Japanese central bankers promise to print more money and the Federal Reserve is being dragged kicking-and-screaming into raising interest rates by a paltry 25 basis points. COMMENT: Somewhere along the line markets will begin to reflect this reality. Be careful.
3.The Canadian Liberal government will not meet its self-imposed Dec. 31 deadline to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada. Instead, 10,000 will be transported to Canada by the end of 2015 and the rest will be resettled in the first two months of 2016.(If you believe that...good on you!) Priority for government refugees will be given to families, women at risk, members of sexual minorities and single men only if they are identified as members of an LGBT community. QUESTIONS: Is this not the definition of profiling? How will they identify Gay men or women at risk? How will they identify female suicide bombers in this privileged group? Will these poor people land up in Muslim ghettoes similar to those in Europe? How long will it take for Canadian Liberals to wake up and smell the coffee?
4.So Mister Looney Toons himself, Donald Trump saw thousands of arabs celebrating the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey. CNN is having a field day with Trump and his nonsense while ignoring the fact that Palestinians and arabs all over the Muslim world cheered the Paris attacks (Google it). QUESTION: Who is more delusional....Trump or CNN?
5.The Western media is aghast at what they have created and the cover up continues. Each time they discuss ISIS one gets the sense that they are terrified of this scum (and of course conveying this fear to their audience). Every atrocity committed by the savages is broadcast over and over thus spreading the ISIS message of fear and terror. Its also great for ratings and advertising. It's a scratch my back and I'll scratch yours type of thing. Strange bedfellows working hand in hand. Whatever happened to the good ol' Palestinian question and lambasting Israel?
6. If anyone will take care of ISIS, it will be Putin and the Russians. They are not inhibited by the PC Obama style of warfare and (to boot), they have boots on the ground to supplement their other forces. Besides the Syrian army, there are now increasing numbers of Russian armed forces on the ground. COMMENT: If this French government hopes to have the slimmest possibility of survival come election time, they will have to adopt the Russian attitude to warfare.
7. So the Turks thought they were sending a message to Putin by knocking down one of his planes. They say they warned the Russian plane ten times. According to most sources, the Russian plane was over Turkey for 17 seconds. Ten times? Stupid mistake. Russia has now suspended buying fruit and veggies from Turkey and is importing from Israel. On another note, there is excellent co-operation between the IAF and the the Russian air force. QUESTION: Does Israel see an alternative to Assad? I doubt it. So while Obama is pushing for elections in Syria (Elections...really?) he should be more worried about his legacy.
8.It is seldom that a large company in trouble can have a geopolitical effect. However this holds true for Volkswagen, the largest auto company in the world. Germany is Europe's engine, and its economy depends largely on its exports, which equal 45 percent of its gross domestic product. The automotive sector makes up 17 percent of Germany's exports, the highest portion from any single industry. Volkswagen's woes may expand to Germany's automotive sector, which may in turn expand to the German export machine, dimming the one bright light in Germany's plan for Europe — its own performance. COMMENT: Watch for contagion.
Feeling sorry for those who want you to feel sorry for them is like giving an alcoholic a gift certificate to a liquor store - Guy Finley
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