Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The Israeli Miracle Continues - Follow The Money

Israel is Officially an energy power

The amount of gas in the Leviathan reservoir off the coast of Haifa is as large as originally estimated. The Leviathan exploration prospect, which is located northwest of the coast of Haifa, contains 80% more natural gas than the Tamar reservoir, which was previously considered Israel's largest drilling site, a report released Wednesday by Delek Energy revealed. "Today we received the most important piece of Energy news since the foundation of the State," National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau said. "Israel can enjoy not only the use of the gas, but can actually also turn into a gas supplier in the Middle East."

COMMENT: And after all that, Israel now is one of the infrastructure leaders for electric cars. Not complaining...just happy we didn't land up in Ghana! There were, however, historic complaints that Moses had lost his way. Now they will be saying that he invented the GPS!

ChemChina Purchases Makhteshim Agan

The deal is done. The sale of agrochemicals company Makhteshim Agan Industries Ltd. (TASE: MAIN) to China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina) at NIS 20 per share, reflecting a company value of $2.4 billion was signed and sealed today after 3 months of negotiation.

COMMENT: I wonder how the Iranians would feel today about targeting Chinese assets in Israel with their missiles? Somehow I think they might be too busy trying to hold their collapsing economy together.

Income from tourism reaches record $4.4b in 2010

The Israel Hotels Association also reported a record 3.4 million tourists visited Israel this year. This is about 2.2% (two point two) of GDP. This gives some perspective of how strong the rest of the economy is this year.

COMMENT: And all of this in spite of not apologising to Turkey.

Israel and Cyprus sign offshore oil and gas exploration agreement 

Friday's agreement enables Israel and Cyprus to pursue development of their energy sources in the deepwater East Mediterranean Basin. Turkey's Foreign Ministry summoned Ambassador Gaby Levy for a sharp rebuke. Turkey does not recognize the Cypriot government, and is the only country to recognize the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

COMMENT: Goodness, the Turks are mad! Maybe we should apologise to them.

Israel and Philippines sign 'landmark' mutual assistance agreement

Israel and the Philippines on Tuesday signed an agreement on customs and mutual assistance and cooperation, the first of its kind between the two states. "This agreement constitutes an important landmark in Israel's relations with the Philippines, especially in light of the recent sharp rise in the scope of trade between the two countries," said Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, at the signing of the agreement in the Philippine Embassy in Tel Aviv.

People who think of retreating before a battle is fought ought to have stayed home - Michel Ney

H

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Rare Earth going nuts!!! - FLASH

Today Tuesday Dec 28th China reduced its export Quotas of rare earth elements. Massive volume on the markets and the shares are rocketing. Looks like we are about to witness the mother of all shortages. Some of the more interesting companies are RARE ELEMENT RES LTD (REE), GREENLAND MINERALS (GDLNF.PK), TASMAN METALS (TASXF.PK), QUEST RARE (QSURD.PK) and the ETF (REMX) on the NYSE. (please check with your broker as regards risk).   Amazing that this is not making headline news.

For anyone who is still unaware of this please read "Rare Earth Revolution"  from Nov 17th and "The Middle East has oil, China has Rare Earths" October 15th on this blog.
H

China Plays Its Hand
China, supplier of about 95% of the international market for rare earths metals, the materials used in high-tech gadgets from smartphones to laptops to LED televisions, is once again asserting its dominance in the market by paring its export quotas of rare earths by 11% in the first round of permits for 2011 to 14,446 metric tons, according to Bloomberg News. The country allotted 16,304 tons and 7,976 tons in the two permit rounds this year, Bloomberg reported.
News of China's reduced export quotas has helped the Rare Earth Stocks Index surge by 13.6% this morning, adding to a massive gain of over 300% in the past six months. China has also said it will raise export taxes on select rare earths by as much as 25%, and the lower quotas may force major rare earths consumers such as Japan and the U.S. to seek alternative supplies from countries such as Australia, Mongolia and Thailand, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The U.S. was once a major rare earths supplier, but mining activity here has dwindled. Molycorp (NYSE: MCP - News) is looking to change that and recently started work on a rare earths mine in California. Shares of Molycorp are up 9% today and have surged 72% in the past month.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Politically Incorrect

Quite a few people might be upset by this blog. However, I need to say things as I see them. Most analysts would be careful of saying these things lest they be labelled as racists or bigots or whatever. Lets start with a challenge. I challenge anybody to show me a public speech made by any Arab leader of any arab state or entity, calling on his people to make peace with the Jewish State of Israel. The condition would be that the speech must be in Arabic. To be frank, if such a thing exists one could count the instances on the fingers of one hand.

Then of course there are three different words for peace in arabic. The three Arabic words translated as "peace" in English are salaam, hudna, and suhl. Two of these words are phony substitutes. Salaam is the peace of submission. It is the arabic word for submission and obedience and the peaceful intent is only for moslems or those who submit to Islam. Therefore salaam, Moslem peace, is not the absence of violence as it is for us, but the absence of disobedience.  But then who would know that? (probably about 1.3 billion Muslims).

Hudna, the second Arabic word translated in English as "peace," means cease-fire, a temporary truce.The
word most commonly used by Hamas.So when they propose a Hudna with israel, it's hailed in the Western media as a peace proposal. It is instead a tactical, temporary break in hostilities, giving Moslems time to re-organize, re-arm, then renew the Jihad against the infidels (non believers) when they can be most caught off-guard.

Sulh or Sulha the third Arabic term for "peace," means reconciliation and is the word they always refuse to use. The Encyclopedia of Islam describes sulh as a concept of Islamic sharia law: The purpose of sulh is to end conflict and hostility among believers so that they may conduct their relationships in peace and amity....In Islamic law, sulh is a form of contract (aqd), legally binding on both the individual and community levels. That these words matter is shown by Arab resistance to signing an agreement that makes it a binding contract using sulh. Even Sadat refused the word in the Camp David accords, and in spite of this, he was assasinated for his efforts.

Interesting that every arab on the planet understands the language but the Sean Penns and the Oliver Stones of the world, even if they are aware (not quite sure they are aware of anything...) of the nuances, continue to sprout their cockeyed belief that Israel is the source of all evil. Even more interesting are arab and muslim attitudes to people of colour, even though they (the people of colour) are muslims. Bare with me and we shall reach our politically incorrect conclusion.

It is true that the population of most North African countries is mixed, but it is not a secret that in these countries there is a gradation of human valuation that corresponds directly to skin color, with the most privileged status being accorded those perceived rightly or wrongly as being of "pure" Arab stock while those with the darkest skin and curliest hair are located on the lowest rung of the social hierarchy.

Arab racism is so deep it is inscribed in the fundamental semantic structure of the Arabic language. Till this day, the generic word or for a black person is the preface "abd," which translates as "slave," as in "Abd"-allah (slave or servant of God). This linguistic norm, among many other racially-charged ones, is an expressive constant which holds true for the entire Arab-speaking world regardless of dialect and orthography.

Arabs still generally regard the Darfur genocide as a public relations disaster rather than as a barbaric racist war against black people. I have not heard one word from all these foreign policy experts in Hollywood on this painful truth. Obviously it would be politically incorrect. We have yet to hear unequivocal condemnation of the Sudanese government's racist practices from Arab states.  In Morocco, Tunisia, and throughout much of the Arab world, the only ticket to social visibility for blacks is soccer. Becoming a soccer star gives a black person access to coveted corridors of society and enables them to "marry up", racially speaking.

And I could go on and on. I have spent many evenings in conversation with arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza and they discuss the above truths without blinking an eyelid. I could go on for hours. We could discuss Durban 1,2 and 3. The zionism is racism BS. What about Israel the Apartheid State? Canadian universities are full of these enlightened morons. However, all of this pales compared to the above. Clearly this is a culture where dishonesty, racism and deception are deeply inbred. The pot calling the kettle black (Excuse the pun). All we have to do is listen to what they are saying in arabic.....and believe them. One morning, North America will wake up and the coffee will be cold.

The upside to all this? Islam is hostile to all religions. You know what they say about fooling all the people....

Dedicated to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times whose coffee is cold and he is asleep at the wheel!

Life's a bitch.You've got to go out and kick ass - Maya Angelo

H

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Palestine - A Contrary Opinion

Most political agendas and foreign policy decisions are based on economic shortages and especially long term economic trends. Specifically in the Western World post world war 2. In the early fifties most foreign offices came to the conclusion that oil would be a critical factor in the economic development of western economies. And so the political pendulum swung in the direction of of the oil producing nations. The arab world, aware of this newly found power realised the opportunity and this gave birth to arab nationalism. OPEC was established in 1960 and the PLO headed by Yasser Arafat was born in 1964. At the time the price of oil was 3 (yes, three) dollars a barrel. To be fair, the price in real terms of 2008 dollars was closer to 20 bucks a barrel. The price remained stable until the early seventies when OPEC began to flex its muscles.

The Yom Kippur War erupted in 1973 when Syria and Egypt surprised Israel in an almost deadly attack. OPEC saw the opportunity and placed an oil embargo on the West. The price of oil jumped fourfold to 12 dollars a barrel (About $40 a barrel in 2008), but that is a story for another day. Back to the PLO and Yasser Arafat. In 1974 this gentleman appeared before the UN packing a pistol at his side and threatened "Today I have come bearing an olive branch and a freedom fighter’s gun. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat: do not let the olive branch fall from my hand." And the members sucked it up! The PLO had the world at its feet.

In 1979 cracks began to appear between Shiite and Sunni Muslims as Iran and Iraq went to war sending the price of oil to $35 a barrel (about $80 in 2008 prices). And this is where the PLO fairy tale peaks. Like with all economic shortages, the market takes over and creates alternatives. Oil is no longer a political weapon. Some members of OPEC have over-extended themselves to the point of bankruptcy. The former PLO and their cronies are split between Hamas and the PLA, and of course Arafat has been buried together with his olive branch and pistol.

The long term trend today is towards electricity. Not oil. The price today is $90, but in devalued dollars. Alternative energy sources like nuclear energy, solar and wind power plus huge discoveries of oil sands etc.
are making oil as a weapon, irrelevant. The danger to Israel has not passed, but the miracle of Israel is there for all to see. Israels currency is one of the strongest in the world. China, India and Russia are all making large investments in Israel. Gas in sizeable amounts has been discovered off Haifa and Israel is the third largest exporter of weapons in the world. And lets not forget hi-tech and medicare. Not bad for a country 62 years old and surrounded by enemies.

Bottom line. Even though the "Palestinians" still behave as though they are the centre of the universe, The universe has changed. The so-called Palestinian problem was created by the oil weapon, and suffice to predict that it will be relegated to the back rows of history as OPEC (remember them?) sinks into oblivion.
The pendulum is swinging. Roll on 2011!

And to all my friends....Merry Christmas, A Happy New Year and Happy Holidays

If you have abandoned one faith, do not abandon all faith. There is always an alternative to the faith we lose. Or is it the same faith under another mask? - Graham Greene

H

Monday, December 20, 2010

Bloomberg,Russell and Dines

1.Moody's, the credit agency, says that due to the cost of the new tax cut deal between Obama and the GOP, US Treasuries may lose their AAA rating within 2 years. The US losing its credit rating would be fantastic shock, yet it may happen. By the way, after they failed so miserably during the housing disaster, the credit agencies may be forced to be honest and do the required work.

2.The gold price continue to hold near its all-time high. And no wonder, with China's government allowing its
mainlanders to invest in foreign exchange-traded gold funds for the first time. Now that the quacks running the world's central banks have dumped most of their gold in favor of public ownership

3.Silver is outperforming gold, as it did in the 1970s. Silver is more speculative than gold and when it gets going will attract much more buying. At $30.27/oz reached on 6 Dec 10, silver was at its highest level since 15 Oct 1980.

4.There is an insatiable demand for energy in China. Seventy percent of its electricity is supplied by coal-fired power plants. There's a coal bubble forming. China currently burns half of the six billion tons of coal used every year on earth. The United States now ships coal to China all the way from West Virginia. And it's not just the high-end coal — or coke for making steel; the U.S. companies are shipping regular thermal coal halfway around the world.

5.On the uranium front, as recent strength in uranium-mining shares has been validated by higher prices for uranium metal.The weekly spot price has risen from $40 in Apr 09 to $61.75 currently.

COMMENT: The demand for energy seems endless, whether gas, coal, electricity, wind, solar and to a lesser extent, oil.

6.The first U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) investing in companies that produce rare-earth elements and other strategic metals has been trading since November on the NYSE Arca Stock Exchange. Managed by Van Eck Global, the Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF trades under the symbol REMX. The ETF tracks an index comprising of 24 mining companies including Iluka Resources Ltd., the world’s biggest zircon producer, China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd., a Hong Kong-based manufacturer and wholesaler of rare-earth products; and Titanium Metals Corp.

7.If you think you have it tough, read history books - Bill Maher

H  

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Between The Headlines

1.Iran Feeling The crunch

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's president on Saturday announced the start of a plan to slash energy and food subsidies, part of government efforts to boost the country's ailing economy. The U.N. Security Council slapped a fourth round of sanctions on Iran last summer over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, and there are signs those penalties are taking a toll on the nation's economy. On Saturday, thousands of police in riot gear were stationed at gas stations to protect them from possible rioters, while police were also seen patrolling streets and guarding banks. Please read "Iran - A Contrary Opinion" 4th Nov

2.UN OKs Israel-led blood diamonds resolution

Led by Israel, more than 60 other countries co-sponsored the resolution deepening the commitment by UN member states to halt the use of the diamond trade to fund armed conflicts across Africa. The United Nations General Assembly unanimously agreed Thursday to strengthen global efforts to curb the trade in so-called blood diamonds, saying better enforcement and reporting can help end violent conflicts fueled by illegal exploitation of the rough gems.'This is an impressive achievement for Israel,' says Ambassador Meron Reuven.

COMMENT: My, my how the world is changing. Can you imagine this scenario a few years back?

3.Obama signs Bush tax cuts extension into law

Nobody has been more opposed to the Obama policies than myself. But credit where credit is due. The man has moved from left to centre, infuriating the likes of Pelosi and CNN. This could easily be the death knell of his political career, but he did it anyway. Thats what a President does. He does what is needed for the American people. That was easy. Now comes the hard part. Budget cuts. Lets see how that goes.

QUESTION: Has the leopard changed his spots?

4.Erdogan exposed! Calls WikiLeaks docs 'gossip'

Turkish prime minister visibly upset by leaked cables which claim he has eight Swiss bank accounts with private funds and surrounds himself with fawning advisors; says US must 'hold cable writers accountable for slander'

COMMENT: The Turkish prime minister not paying his taxes? Maybe its his getaway stash...If the funds were obtained through political corruption, that falls under international money laundering laws and the Swiss system will not protect him. Somebody should follow this up.

5.Dead end: U.S. drops demand for Israeli settlement freeze in ongoing peace talks

The surprise announcement came nearly a month after Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed in principle on 90-day settlement moratorium extension in exchange for a package of incentives from Washington.

COMMENT: It took the administration two years and a ten month settlement freeze which came to nought, to work it out. They should have read my blog! Now, for goodness sakes, they are negotiating on how to get indirect talks started, because the peace loving palestinians are hurt. Shame! Ramallah is about 3 km from Jerusalem. Maybe we should all get together and buy Abbas a Blackberry. How pathetic.....

6.H ANALYSIS: Apparently the emphasis has shifted. It looks like Obama has decided to concentrate more on the economy and less on foreign policy. It took a thrashing at the polls for him to understand that he should concentrate on where his bread is buttered and not on foreign pita bread.

He who loses wealth loses much. He who loses a friend loses more. But he who loses his courage loses all.
-Miguel de Cervantes

H
 

Friday, December 10, 2010

Letter to Elizabeth Edwards

Dear Elizabeth,
                      It was with great sadness that I read of your passing. Your life and death has had such a profound effect on my life, I feel compelled to write you this letter. If there was ever a definition of motherhood, you would be it. I have followed your struggle with cancer, your partners betrayal and, despite all these blows, your loyalty to him and your kids. You put family first. You did it with strength and dignity, head held high. So many of us would like to be like you.

In todays world of hostilities and dog eat dog, words like loyalty, trust, principles and friendship seem to have lost their place in our lexicon. You have given all these words significance. But most of all you have given meaning to the sentence that directs our lives and the principle I continuously teach my children. Love is the strongest force in the world. You prove it!


So straight off the bat I will tell you that we do not have the same political views, we have never met and I consider myself to be just one of many. That being said, it would be correct to state that if there were more people like you on the planet, it would be a very different and better place.
True greatness comes with bravery, leadership and dignity. In life and in death. You have them all, in fact in bucket loads. Maybe you will notice that I am writing in the present tense. Simply put, people like you live forever in our thoughts and actions.


Have you ever seen an injured elephant mother, trumpeting anger, charge a pride of lions threatening her calves, scattering them in all directions? This is the image that flashes through the mind, watching you supporting your husband and protecting your offspring, in spite of betrayal and disease. Lady, you are the mother of all leaders, the mother of all partners and the mother of all mothers.


As for the father of your offspring (possibly the jackal in our story), a little toilet talk is necessary. His political career is over, but he will not be allowed to slink off into the night back to his girlfriend. Every time his name is mentioned, it will be associated with the word "Creep!" We the public will enforce your legacy of love. So rest assured Elizabeth, your children will be well looked after and you will be a shining light in their eyes and in the annals of history.


A Friend

Thursday, December 2, 2010

The Gathering Storm- Bloomberg Russell and Dines

The Gathering Storm is the 12th book of the fantasy series The Wheel of Time. The series' storyline has been leading up to the "Last Battle", a fight between the forces of Light and Shadow. Of course, the hero has to be present for the forces of light to be victorious.


Now, a series of articles, Rising above The gathering storm has become popular reading.


1."Thirty years ago, ten percent of California's general fund went to higher education and three percent went to prisons. Today, nearly eleven percent goes to prisons and eight percent goes to education." 
Comment: no wonder Cal wants to legalize pot. Filling up Cal's prison for pot is becoming damn expensive, this in a state that is already broke.


2.Some tidbits...Of Wal-Mart's 6,000 suppliers, 5,000 are in China. IBM's once promising PC business is now owned by a Chinese company. The legendary Bell Laboratories is now owned by a French company.
United States consumers spend significantly more on potato chips than the US government devotes to energy R&D.



3.A fatal flaw in the US system as it faces the 21st and 22nd centuries. Gridlock. Every suggestion, idea and strategy is subject to debate. Nothing gets done. The Chinese advantage -- once the government decides to do something, it gets done in a hurry, no arguments, no debates.


4.The great irony. The US continues to "advise" China on what China should do. According to US "authorities," China should raise the competitive price of the yuan. And China should become a consumer society much like the US. The reality -- China will do just what's best for China. China will only consider US "instructions" if they will help China.


5.The second great irony. The world's investors rushing into US dollars and Treasuries as if these two were "safe havens." There's only one true safe haven, and that safe haven is gold. Five thousand years of history underscores that statement. Where are all the other fiat currencies that have been created in the past ("Greenbacks, Continentals)??


6.First Greece, then Ireland, and now Spain and probably Portugal. And Spain is no little Ireland. Spain is big time, and it will take one heck of a lot of euros to bail Spain out. And the question, of course, is this -- could the euro and the euro-zone be falling apart? The Euro-zone has put up one trillion dollars to cover emergency bailouts. If Spain and Portugal unravel, there won't be enough money.


7.What's the biggest selling alcohol beverage on the planet? I ask friends this question, and nobody ever comes up with the right answer. Answer -- Saki. All Asia drinks saki; nuff said. Second biggest seller -- rum, a great mixer, and a Central and South American favorite.

Wanna fly, you got to give up the shit that weights you down - Toni Morrison

H
 

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Iran - A Contrary Opinion...Apparently Not

From Ynet (Israels's largest newspaper) News today.....The only way this could have been published is if it had been leaked elsewhere.


WikiLeaks: Mubarak asked for military strike against Iran.
WikiLeaks revealed Sunday that Arab nations supported a military strike on Iran in order to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons, the Guardian reported.
Saudi King Abdullah and other Arab leaders also toed the line with this view, according to the secret files, and asked the US to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The leaders of Jordan and Bahrain called on the US to put a stop to the program, even if it means using military means, the files say.


"Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt referred to Iran as 'evil', an 'existential threat' and a power that 'is going to take us to war', the Guardian reported.


The following analysis was made on this site on October 27th


Obama and Israel
So what is the Obama agenda? The Muslim world is divided between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. It is also divided between Arab muslims and others. Iran regards herself as the leader of the Shiite world and has a grand plan for leadership of the Islamic nations. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, amongst others, all fear the Iranian leadership challenge to the Arab world (Iranians are not arabs). Imagine if Iran developed a nuclear capability. That would upset the balance of power in the area. Every time Iran threatens Israel with annihilation, a shiver must run through these countries. And if you are not yet convinced, Saudi Arabia recently allowed Israeli planes to land in a deserted area of the kingdom, close to the Iranian border.This would also explain why the US administartion,during the last year, has supplied these nervous Sunni countries with anti-missile batteries for sums amounting to at least ten billion dollars. Obama also knows that a solution to The Palestinian Issue (even temporarily), would hold him in good stead with these countries and help create an Anti-Iranian coalition. He pressured Israel into a ten month freeze on settlement expansion. Then he kicked up a fuss about building in Jerusalem. Something that no American President before him had ventured. Anybody remember all the election promises...(Jerusalem the capital of Israel etc.)
Also on this site

 

Thursday, November 4, 2010


Iran - A Contrary Opinion

I have said it before and I will say it again. Iran is more of a danger to the Sunni Arab World than it is to Israel. The combination of sabotage and sanctions are having a demoralising effect on Iran. And if what I have said so far could be considered as controversial, try this one. It suits Israel that the Iranian leader behaves like the lunatic that he is. He is by far the best PR advocate Israel could hope for. Definitely better than any "hasbara" (public diplomacy) put out by Israel. I am aware of the many articles creating fear and anxiety in the Jewish world about the danger to Israel, and I would like to say, without diminishing these opinions, that Israel has a plan A, B and C as regards the above. More important, The Iranian president should be just as worried about Israel as The Jewish Homeland is about him. 
And now to what is happening inside Iran.


1.All European states, closed off their skies to IranAir and private airlines in October. This important step was barely noted by the media here, yet as both Germany and Austria also join the boycott, no state would be willing to fuel Iranian planes – and without refueling they can’t fly. No dignified company would risk its permit to enter the United States.


2.All major energy companies have already cut off their ties with Iran. This includes the British-Dutch Shell, the French Total, the Italian ENI, the Norwegian Statoil, and others. This means that Iran is already having trouble getting refined fuel. Lloyd’s, which insured the numerous trucks exporting fuel from Iran, ended its business relationship with Tehran. Now, these trucks cannot enter some states.


 3.As the government in Tehran is facing a real crisis, it announced that on November 21st it shall put an end to fuel subsidies for private vehicles. Up until now, each driver received his first 60 monthly liters of fuel at the cheap price of 10 cents per liter, and dozens of more liters at a low cost. Yet in November this arrangement shall draw to an end, which may provoke the angry street.


4.Iranian GDP growth has fallen from over 6% in 2009 to below 2% in 2010, and these are their figures.
Like I always say...Follow the Money.


5.A top-secret Iranian Imam Ali Base was struck by a triple blast Tues. Oct. 12. The site held most of the Shehab-3 medium-range missile launchers Iran had stocked for striking US forces in Iraq and Israel in the event of war.


6.The cyber attack by the stuxnet virus on nuclear facilities in Iran has been well documented.


7.Another little known fact....There are only two countries in the world with spy satellites. One is the US and 
the other is...you guessed...Israel.Don’t buy into Iranian propaganda. The sanctions and sabotage are forming a chokehold around the Ayatollah regime and Teheran doesn’t know how to free itself. (Next move will be to cut off the ports).
H

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Harper, Obama and Israel

I can't hold my tongue any longer. To see something so clearly, and to be so helpless in preventing it from happening can be most frustrating. Growing up in Apartheid South Africa and then living for 27 years in Israel, one gets to see the world from a different angle.

While serving in the IDF in the territories, more than once, Arab Palestinians looked me directly in the eyes and said "We are going to murder every last one of you in Israel, man woman and child." The look in their eyes was something to behold. Much deeper than hatred or loathing. I believe them, and their leadership. This has been said so many times on so many stages, to the point where Iran, Hisbullah and Hamas, publicly threaten and plan genocide against the people of Israel, it would be foolish to ignore them. York University in Toronto even entertain speakers like George Galloway, who publicly calls for the destruction of the State of Israel. Please google him for a birds eyeview of the perfect anti-semite.

Generations of Jewish history are embedded in all of us Jews. The presence of danger is inbred. However, we all react differently to it, but that is a story for another day. Today there is a heightened, even alarming sense of danger. The alarm bells are ringing, but I am getting ahead of myself. Back to Harper, Obama and Israel. 

Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada has unquestionably emerged as Israel’s greatest friend in the world. Harper’s principled approach to Israel was demonstrated in an extraordinary address he gave in Ottawa to an interparliamentary conference for combating anti-Semitism. Courageously dismissing the traditional political correctness expressed by many liberals, He said that the persecution of Jews had become a global phenomenon in which anti-Semitic ideologies targeted the Jewish people in their “homeland” and perversely exploited the “language of human rights to do so.” He stressed that “while Israel is the only country in the world under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand. “The correct thing to do is simply to just go along with this anti-Israeli rhetoric, to pretend it is just about being evenhanded, and to excuse oneself with the label of ‘honest broker’… There are after all, a lot more votes in being anti- Israel than taking a stand.


“But as long as I am prime minister, whether it is at the UN or anywhere else, Canada will take that stand, whatever the cost. Not just because it is the right thing to do but because history shows us that the ideology of the anti-Israeli mob tells us all too well, that those who threaten the existence of the Jewish people are a threat to us all.” Canada was in fact “punished” for its support of Israel when it was ignominiously defeated by Portugal, an almost bankrupt country, in its attempt to obtain a seat at the UN Security Council. All 57 seats of the organization of the Islamic Conference opposed the Canadian nomination.

But here comes the shocker!  US Ambassador Susan Rice not only didn’t campaign for Canada’s election but instructed American diplomats to not get involved in the weekend leading up to the heated contest.” In fact,the US delegation went missing during the vote! In the midst of this and despite repeated assurances concerning the “unbreakable bond of friendship” between the US and Israel, Obama is continuing to flex his muscles by beating up on Israel.

Obama’s most recent assault on Israel was conveyed from his childhood home, Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the largest Islamic country in the world, which he praised as a model of tolerance worthy of global emulation. "A model of tolerance?" My foot, what rubbish! In a recent poll, 25% of Indonesians professed support for Osama bin Laden. Where Christianity is barely tolerated, while churches are closed and burned. Needless to say, Indonesia does not recognize Israel, bans Israeli aircraft from flying over Indonesian territory and denies entry visas to Israeli citizens. It is especially galling that from such a country, Obama again saw fit to distance the US from Israel and aggressively condemn the Jewish state for building homes in the exclusively Jewish suburbs of its capital Jerusalem. No wonder Israel is seeking new alliances....

The ten month settlement freeze brought only palestinian intransigence. Now this administration is demanding a further 3 month freeze accompanied by promises that sound more like threats than promises. As if the key to peace is the settlement question. Before 1967 there were no settlements. The key to peace is the acceptance (try 'recognition')  by the muslim world and their cronies of a Jewish State in the Land of Israel. I feel ridiculous having to state this, but clearly not everyone (Thomas Friedman of the NY Times for one)  understands this.

The clock is ticking and the danger thermometer is rising. So if I have not made myself clear, Barak Obama is in the business of betraying friends while trying to reap political gain by shaking hands with crocodiles. Many Americans have realised this and it is my hope that he is doomed to fail. And to all the Jews who are struggling with this, I know how you feel, and where it is coming from. As regards our enemies, it would be a big mistake to think that we have not learned the lessons of the holocaust. History will judge us all, as always.

Thanks to Michael Diamond for his input.

H

Friday, November 19, 2010

Israel - Follow The Money

1. Canada will Represent Israel in Venezuela

VANCOUVER - During a recent trip to the Americas, Canadian Minister of State
for Latin America Peter Kent confirmed that Canada will represent Israel's diplomatic
interests in Venezuela.

Comment: What a friend. We will remember!

2. Gazprom mulls Israeli energy co investment

Russia's Gazprom is planning to invest in Israel and acquire 50% of a private
Israeli company that holds licenses to offshore deposits, form a joint
venture, and start exploration, reports "Interfax", citing Stanizlav Tsygankov,
head of the company's foreign economic operations.

3. Delek Energy unit reports Russian oil reserves

Matra Petroleum plc (AIM: MTA(, a Russian oil exploration subsidiary of
Delek Energy Systems Ltd. (TASE: DEOL) unit reports that the Sokolovskoe
Field in the Orenburg area of the Ural Mountains has 15.1 million barrels of
contingent recoverable resources.

Comment: Yep, An Israeli oil company in Russia 

4. Israel and Russia sign miliary cooperation deal

In September Israel's Minister of Defense Ehud Barak flew to Russia and met 
with his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov. The two men signed
a military cooperation agreement. For example: advance systems for
protecting strategic installations; systems for fighting in built-up areas; and
other systems for fighting terror. In all matters related to this we have carte
blanche and there is a lot to talk about. "While in Russia, Barak also
met with prime minister Vladimir Putin to discuss the Iranian threat and
arms sales to Syria and Hezbollah.

5. IAI in $400m Russian UAV deal

Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) (TASE: ARSP.B1) has signed a
$400 million contract to sell unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to
Russia's open joint stock company OPK Oboronprom. Deliveries will be
made over three years. The Russian authorities still have to approve
the deal. Oboronprom will pay IAI a $280 million down payment, and
will pay the balance as the UAVs are delievered.

COMMENT: Anybody notice a trend......?

6. Israelis 2nd in US real estate investment

Israelis are the biggest foreign investors in the United States after the
Canadians, an international report by RCA real estate assessments
suggests. According to the report, Israelis invested $441 million in US
real estate between January and July 2010. The Canadians, by
comparison, invested some $ 1.67 billion.

7. Tourist figures already surpass all of 2009

Central Bureau of Statistics figures show that 2.87 million tourists
have visited Israel in the period January- October 2010 more than
the total number of tourists who visited Israel in all of 2009.

8.Israel Forex Reserves increase to new record
in October

Israel's foreign currency reserves increased to an all time record of 70 billion USD
at the end of October. This is more than Canada (yes, correct), Argentina, Norway,
Sweden, Australia and The United Arab Emirates amongst others.

It's not whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up -
Vince Lombardi

H

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Rare Earth Revolution

The more I read about this group of seventeen metals, the more it dawns on me that whoever controls the supply of these metals, controls the world. Literally! China controls at least 90% of the source of REM (Rare Earth Metals). To update on what we have discussed in the past please read "The Middle East has oil, China has Rare Earths" and "Supply and Demand (2)", posted in October and September. The more we learn the more obvious it is that we are just scratching the surface as regards the strategic importance of these metals.

1.World demand for REM is around 60,000 tonnes per annum. China is cutting its exports to 23,000 tonnes next year, from 30,000 tonnes this year, while it builds up inventories. Another indication is that while commodity prices are falling, REM prices remain stable.

2.REM have a range of sophisticated uses from missile systems, precision-guided weapons, night vision and radar systems to hybrid cars, batteries, cellphones and wind turbines. I read that sentence over and over to understand the implications of shortages of these metals. They have unique magnetic  (GM has moved its whole magnets division to China), optical and other properties crucial for miniaturization, lasers and energy efficiency.

3.Catherine Ngai - National Geographic news: “Smart bombs” that use neodymium-iron-boron magnets to control the direction when dropped from an aircraft, lasers that employ neodymium, yttrium-aluminum-garnet used to determine the range of enemy targets at distances over 22 miles, and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets used for sound system components used in psychological warfare are among the many, according to a 2004 USGS paper. These are just a few examples. Wow! Who Knew?

4.Forget about green technologies, for the moment. Bottom line is that these metals are essential for the manufacture of sophisticated weapons systems. It will take the US and the rest of the world at least five to seven years (some estimate as much as fifteen years)  to catch up on production and mining, using today as a benchmark. Who knows how much will be needed in the coming years. So if the Pentagon and Department of Energy are outwardly calm, trust me when I say that inwardly, anxiety verging on panic is the name of the game. And no amounts of Lorazapan (an anxiety medication) will be of help.

When you have got an elephant by the hind legs and he is trying to run away, its best to let him run-
Abraham Lincoln

H

Monday, November 15, 2010

Obama in La La Land

So now President Obama is accusing China of currency manipulation. Straight off, I apologise for the sarcasm and name calling in this blog, but talk about the pot calling the kettle black! In a previous blog (Obama and the Economy), I attempted to analyse his decision making processes. The conclusion was that he had a problem with his priorities. The hope was that he would get it right as his presidency matured. So far this has not happened.

To be fair, Obama was left holding the baby. However, to be completely fair we need to look at both sides of the coin. The promise was of a new political determination from Washington. The key word used was "change". He was going to fix the mess. Without getting into the details, the mess continues and the only change is that the majority of Americans, with a vote of no confidence in this administration, have sent a message to Obama..."get the job done, or take a walk".

So back to the  pot and the kettle. For the last forty years, successive American administrations have been devaluing the dollar and creating debt. The idea is quite simple. Borrow from China, Japan and others and repay the debt with devalued dollars. Pretty smart if you are 35% of world GDP. But as they say, you can only fool all the people some of the time. Today the US is only 20% of world GDP, has enourmous debts, a stagnating economy and high unemployment, but whose president continues to behave as if they are the most powerful nation on earth. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.

As long as the world accepts the USD as the worlds reserve currency, they can and will continue to print paper money and  create debt. In fact, this is the only way to repay the ballooning debt. The normal family knows how much money they have in the bank. They know what their debts are, and adjust accordingly. Buy less, save more and prepare for their childrens future. They leave the "complicated" decisions to their leaders.

Bottom line is that the G20 rejected President Obama's demand for a resolution calling for China to revalue its currency. A new coalition is forming that is aligning itself with China, and this coalition includes the developing economies and parts of Europe. So the question arises, why did Obama choose this time and place for a confrontation with China? Especially since it led to such a devastating defeat for him.
To quote ABC News "The G-20's failure to adopt the U.S. stand has underlined Washington's reduced influence on the international stage, especially on economic matters. In another setback, Obama also failed to conclude a free trade agreement this week with South Korea."

Once again we have the problem of timing. A few days ago, Bernanke decided to execute QE2 and print a further 900 billion dollars. The clear conclusion is that the US is pushing to devalue its currency and minutes later, Obama calls on China to revalue. There are a lot of stupid people around, Barak my man, but not that stupid! Twice within a week, the once revered rock star has egg on his face. Sometimes it pays to take a step back and rethink one's situation.

Lets take a look at the situation. Let us assume that a country's economic strength is measured by the strength of its currency. The USD is the world's reserve currency, but China clearly has ambitions to take over this role eventually. For this they would have to let their currency float. At the end of the day, nobody is bigger than the market. And in todays atmosphere, one could be sure that no matter what was decided, China would do what was good for China and nobody will dictate to the rising economic star. So what was the point of all this? It appears that presidential decisions are made by a flip of the coin, or maybe even a little panic driven. Most presidents are either good politicians or good leaders, or both. I doubt whether this president fits into any of these categories. Hopefully he will prove me wrong.

A word of warning to all who are writing off the US. There is nothing more dangerous than a wounded  and cornered animal. I would be the last to write off this great power.

Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat - F. Scott Fitzgerald

H

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Wall Street Celebrates - Bloomberg and Russell

1.The Treasury will buy $850 to $900 billion of securities through June, or about $75 billion of Treasuries a month. Said the New York Fed. Not all the purchases will be in Treasuries. The Fed will buy $600 billion of Treasuries. On this news, the dollar sank to a nine-month low vs. the euro and the Dollar Index sank to a new low for the move. The Debt bubble continues to grow. The markets rise as cash runs for inflation cover. Some would call this “demand pull inflation”

2.The US will never pay off its debts. The US will renege on its debts via the Fed way, by devaluing the dollar through inflation. When the crap hits the fan, the current Washington bunglers will be long out of office and reading about their stupidities in nursing homes.

3.Millions of words are written every month about the US economy and the world economy. Some of it is true, but a lot of it is pure bunk . All economics can be reduced to one sentence. That sentence is, "FOLLOW THE MONEY."

4.In our studies of the stock market and investing, we're really just following the flow of funds. The stock market is a weighing machine. The stock market gathers together all the knowledge, the dreams, the ambitions, the hopes, and the fears of tens of millions of investors. Each minute, each hour, the stock market represents an accumulation of what everybody knows about anything and everything.

5.This brings to the stock market a mysterious and marvelous power. It's the nearest thing we have to a crystal ball. But it's a cloudy crystal ball, and it's not easy to read.

6.Two Headlines in the WSJ today. "Food Sellers Grit Teeth, Raise Prices. Packagers and Supermarkets start to pass along rising costs, even as consumer pinch pennies."
and "Insurer WellPoint Sees Costs Rise." It;s beginning to happen. The rise in prices of raw materials and commodities is starting to affect costs. Some people call this "Cost push inflation".

7.From Sotheby's and Christies auction catalogues. The prices being paid for certain items are incredible. Most of the hot auctions take place in Hong Kong or Geneva. A pink Diamond is up for sale at Sotheby's for $16 to $20 million. Top-quality jade is always a wanted item in China, and the prices being paid are mind-blowing. A simple bangle is up for auction -- price: over a million. At Sotheby's a Modigliani nude just sold for a record $68.9 million. Paper currencies are starting to lose their attraction.

8.Under the new health care bill -- did you know that all real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax? The bulk of these new taxes don't kick in until 2013 (presumably after Obama's re-election). Oh, you weren't aware this was in the Obamacare bill? Guess what, you aren't alone.

9.The oldest, shortest words – “yes” and “no” – are those which require the most thought. - Pythagoras

H

Iran - A Contrary Opinion

I have said it before and I will say it again. Iran is more of a danger to the Sunni Arab World than it is to Israel. The combination of sabotage and sanctions are having a demoralising effect on Iran. And if what I have said so far could be considered as controversial, try this one. It suits Israel that the Iranian leader behaves like the lunatic that he is. He is by far the best PR advocate Israel could hope for. Definitely better than any "hasbara" (public diplomacy) put out by Israel. I am aware of the many articles creating fear and anxiety in the Jewish world about the danger to Israel, and I would like to say, without diminishing these opinions, that Israel has a plan A, B and C as regards the above. More important, The Iranian president should be just as worried about Israel as The Jewish Homeland is about him. 
And now to what is happening inside Iran.

1.All European states, closed off their skies to IranAir and private airlines in October. This important step was barely noted by the media here, yet as both Germany and Austria also join the boycott, no state would be willing to fuel Iranian planes – and without refueling they can’t fly. No dignified company would risk its permit to enter the United States.

2.All major energy companies have already cut off their ties with Iran. This includes the British-Dutch Shell, the French Total, the Italian ENI, the Norwegian Statoil, and others. This means that Iran is already having trouble getting refined fuel. Lloyd’s, which insured the numerous trucks exporting fuel from Iran, ended its business relationship with Tehran. Now, these trucks cannot enter some states.

 3.As the government in Tehran is facing a real crisis, it announced that on November 21st it shall put an end to fuel subsidies for private vehicles. Up until now, each driver received his first 60 monthly liters of fuel at the cheap price of 10 cents per liter, and dozens of more liters at a low cost. Yet in November this arrangement shall draw to an end, which may provoke the angry street.

4.Iranian GDP growth has fallen from over 6% in 2009 to below 2% in 2010, and these are their figures.
Like I always say...Follow the Money.

5.A top-secret Iranian Imam Ali Base was struck by a triple blast Tues. Oct. 12. The site held most of the Shehab-3 medium-range missile launchers Iran had stocked for striking US forces in Iraq and Israel in the event of war.

6.The cyber attack by the stuxnet virus on nuclear facilities in Iran has been well documented.

7.Another little known fact....There are only two countries in the world with spy satellites. One is the US and 
the other is...you guessed...Israel.Don’t buy into Iranian propaganda. The sanctions and sabotage are forming a chokehold around the Ayatollah regime and Teheran doesn’t know how to free itself. (Next move will be to cut off the ports).

I am off to Israel for a week and on return, we can look at Obama, the elections, the Fed, and what now? The aftershock should be quite interesting.

When you want to fool the world, tell the truth - Bismarck

H

Monday, November 1, 2010

CNN and Sarah Palin

Recently I was watching four commentators on CNN discussing the merits of Sarah Palin. All four were trashing her and competing with each other on who would make the more derogatory comment. And each belittling comment was accompanied by laughter and merriment. The presenter could barely hide his pleasure.
My first thought was "how distateful". That was followed by a string of thoughts and observations. Clearly there is a disconnect between CNN and the American public, to the point where the biased right wing channel, Fox News has become the most popular news channel in the States. How did this happen?

Lets start with the basics. Ninety percent (90) of  American wage earners make $100,000 or less per annum. The other 10% are a mixture of smart businessmen, inherited money and upper crust members of society. Sometimes they are known as the "privileged". Some are famous (actors, authors, singers etc.) others less. As the communication industry develops, many have been given a voice in shaping society.

Some (and I stress, some) of the "privileged" believe that their affluence and fame entitle them to leadership roles, regardless of the source of the prosperity.  This has developed to the point where they have lost sight of the fact that they live in a country where 90% of the people are struggling to make ends meet. This same majority sit night after night in front of the TV set, open mouthed, as they watch these privileged "intellectuals"
showing off their superiority, sometimes in the most arrogant of ways. No wonder CNN is floundering.

So maybe Palin is not the smartest of politicians. Maybe she continuously puts her foot in her mouth. But whether you like her or not, many Americans identify with Mama Bear, and the more she is humiliated by
CNN and others, the angrier they become. Not smart (regardless of how educated or famous these 'experts' are).

The general public is already angry. They have seen how the establishment created a massive debt bubble, and now they watch as an even larger debt bubble is in the making. Lets be honest, whatever your politics, most parents are aware of the problem being created for their children, and for the following generations. So CNN, mock the Sarah Palins of the world at your peril. Try respecting the little people from your tower in the sky. The 'savages' are at your doorstep. This superior attitude is only pouring gasoline on the volcano.

How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg - Abraham Lincoln.

H

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Israel - Follow The Money

1."Defense News" ranked Israel in third place last year for arms exports, after the US and Russia.

In defense exports, Israel is already considered a power. "Defense News" ranked Israel in third place last year for arms exports, after the US and Russia. In homeland security-related exports, Israel is among the 10 leading countries, and the annual sales of Israeli defense companies are estimated at $1.5 billion.


COMMENT: Does anybody remember the days when Israel had to plead for aid to defend herself .

2.IDF and Chinese army spokesmen to cooperate

Chinese Army officers will take courses at IDF Spokesman's Office facilities.

The Chinese officers will come to Israel for courses in combat photography, spokesmanship in situations of mass casualties,  and conduct vis-à-vis the public about casualties during public incidents. The PLA officers will probably participate in an IDF Homeland Command exercise.

 

3.Delek Energy unit reports  

   Russian oil reserves

Matra Petroleum plc (AIM: MTA), a Russian oil exploration subsidiary of Delek Energy Systems Ltd. (TASE: DEOL) unit reports that the Sokolovskoe Field in the Orenburg area of the Ural Mountains has 15.1 million barrels of contingent recoverable resources.

COMMENT: An Israeli Company discovering oil in Russia........What is the world coming to??

 

4.Bibi first Israeli PM to visit Greece

JERUSALEM (Arutz-7) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Greece on Monday, making him the first sitting Israeli prime minister to visit the country. His trip follows Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s visit to Israel in July. During this latest meeting, Netanyahu and Papandreou were expected to discuss the possibility of forging defence ties, officials said. In July, Netanyahu said Israel and Greece would undergo “a major upgrade in relations” that would include closer ties in finance, tourism and technology.

COMMENT: And the Turks are still waiting for an apology.....??H

The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it 

 F. O'Connor


Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Obama and Israel

If the jury is still out regarding Obama's economic policies, the same cannot be said regarding his Israel policy. There is no doubt that Barak Obama should be regarded as hostile to The Jewish State, and at best,
he might be neutral. The pre-election gestures to Israel, and the friendly words are simple lip service and can be regarded as such. Fortunately for Israel, this stance is balanced by the American people and congress, who are clearly not so easily persuaded.

So what is the Obama agenda? The Muslim world is divided between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. It is also divided between Arab muslims and others. Iran regards herself as the leader of the Shiite world and has a grand plan for leadership of the Islamic nations. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, amongst others, all fear the Iranian leadership challenge to the Arab world (Iranians are not arabs). Imagine if Iran developed a nuclear capability. That would upset the balance of power in the area. Every time Iran threatens Israel with annihilation, a shiver must run through these countries. And if you are not yet convinced, Saudi Arabia recently allowed Israeli planes to land in a deserted area of the kingdom, close to the Iranian border.

This would also explain why the US administartion,during the last year, has supplied these nervous Sunni countries with anti-missile batteries for sums amounting to at least ten billion dollars. Obama also knows that a solution to The Palestinian Issue (even temporarily), would hold him in good stead with these countries and help create an Anti-Iranian coalition. He pressured Israel into a ten month freeze on settlement expansion. Then he kicked up a fuss about building in Jerusalem. Something that no American President before him had ventured. Anybody remember all the election promises...(Jerusalem the capital of Israel etc.)

This is where it all began to go wrong. A miscalculation. This move was perceived as weakness by the Palestinians and the so called face to face talks went nowhere. Just imagine, pre-conditions for face to face talks. Disneyland. A weak infidel president. Israel stands firm, elections around the corner and that's where we stand right now. Gridlock (a little like the economy).

Once again we need to look at who this man, Obama, is. I honestly believe that he has good intentions. It is in the nature of his elitist left wing intellectual background to see the world through optimistic eyes. To believe that all humanity is basically good, just and upright, especially mixed with his special brand of confidence and oratory skills. After all, humanity has come a long way. Another miscalculation. It's called "The nature of the beast". Ever tried shaking hands with a crocodile?

Mister Obama, the road to hell is paved with.......

Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence - Napoleon Bonaparte 
H

Friday, October 22, 2010

Obama and The Economy

I need to get a few things off my chest as regards Obama. My opinion for what its worth...

1. Obama is not a Muslim as some claim. Clearly though, he is more pro muslim than most American presidents.

2.Its pretty unfair to shoulder him with all America's economic woes. He inherited decades of
economic decadence and mismanagement by previous administrations and their cronies, The Congress, Senate and Federal Reserve.

3.No matter who the president is, his priorities would have been the same. Save the Banking system,
decelerate the market collapse, stabilise the real estate and mortgage markets and prevent unemployment from worsening.

That being said, I find it fascinating to try and analyse the man's mind and thereafter his decision making processes. Obama grew up poor, raised by his white mother. His black father split early in Obama's infancy. Obama rose in the ranks, convinced that he was smart, an intellectual, so smart that his intelligence could overcome the disadvantage of his color. Obama was also a convincing speaker. Obama grew up, as do many a poor boy, distrusting and probably envying the wealthy. "I'm smarter than they are, I haven't made the big bucks as they have, but I can do better than the billionaires, I'll get my power through politics and by using my voice and my brains." So far so good, but this is where I part ways with this gentleman.

 Obama resents the rich, he believes that the meek and the poor should inherit the earth or at least the US. I think this is the key to Obama. The nation should be run from the top, by the intellectuals. The markets are merely a reflection of the ignorant masses. The true brains at the top of the government power structure should run the nation. In fact, the government should run everything. The people should just follow directions and obey. Which is exactly the path that this President is on. 

So now let us can look at his decision making process. Obama takes power, the markets are in chaos, and the economy is sinking. Whats first on the agenda? Not small business, not jobs, in fact, not the economy. His health plan. The US is sinking into recession, and he turns socialist. Business will be obliged to include health insurance for employees. More expense, not less. Have to plan ahead. So what about jobs? So much more logical to get the economy back on track first, and then try the socialist experiment.

Two years and a trillion dollars per year deficit. To hell with future generations. Let them pay the debt. Tax the rich and give to the meek and the poor. A true Robin Hood. Great if you are an intellectual, catastrophic
for an economy in recession. So while the US plays love thy neighbour, China, India and Russia are breathing down his intellectual neck. Trust me when I say, there is blood in the water and the sharks are circling.

Two more quickie decisions. Small but significant enough to give an insight. The New Bank Legislation reception was accompanied by the non-invite to heads of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sacks. A direct affront to Wall Street. Divide and Conquer. A mistake? I know the answer, but time will tell.
Next he decides to appear on a television show, "The View" , cancelling an appearance at The Boy Scouts Centenery celebration. Apparently there was more exposure on the TV show. A choice was made. Why not appear the following week on TV?
There appears to be a problem with priorities....

This all gives me an uncomfortable feeling. You know that feeling when a second hand car salesman sells you a beautiful car, you drive it around the corner and the engine falls out? Am I alone with this feeling? Who is this man? Is he an impostor? Is he a citizen of the world? Is he the leader of the free world? Is he a good president?

The first rule of holes: when you're in one, stop digging - Molly Ivins


H

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Israel - Follow The Money

1.IAI in $400m Russian UAV deal

Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) (TASE: ARSP.B1) has signed a $400 million contract to sell unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to Russia's open joint stock company OPK Oboronprom. Deliveries will be made over three years. The Russian authorities still have to approve the deal. Oboronprom will pay IAI a $280 million down payment, and will pay the balance as the UAVs are delivered.
COMMENT: Well, well...Russia purchasing arms from Israel. That's one for the books.

2.Elbit Systems in $68m US follow-on deal

The indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (ID/IQ) contract is a follow-on to a $75 million contract from September 2005. The new display units increase situational awareness and safety by allowing pilots to fly "head out of the cockpit" during day and night operations.
3.Canada, Israel to look at expanding free trade

Two-way merchandise trade has more than doubled since implementation of Free Trade Agreement between two countries, Canadian minister says during visit to Israel

“Canada’s ties to Israel are very deep, and our friendship is important. Our government is building on these ties and looking at opportunities to expand our trade relationship. We are committed to creating new sources of jobs, growth and prosperity for both of our countries in the years ahead.”

4.Warren Buffet: Israel has a surplus of brains
Leading international businessman and philanthropist was in Israel this week to attend a major economic conference. When asked why he was bothering with the small Jewish state, Buffet explained that Israel has a surplus of human ingenuity that he just can’t ignore. "We are always interested in more investments in Israel. We will be happy to acquire a large and independent company in Israel, or some small companies - what I call mergers into the existing framework and I think we will do both,"

5.Kibbutz industries look to raise NIS 3b

As the kibbutz movement celebrates 100 years, the number of kibbutz owned companies on the TASE is set to double.

   20 kibbutz companies are currently traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) today and the number of kibbutz owned companies traded on the TASE is set to double in the coming years.

COMMENT: This is almost as good as the Russians buying weapons from Israel....

6.Fischer wins best bank governor of the world

award

Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer on Sunday won the best bank governor in the world award for 2010 in Washington DC. He was chosen among all the central bank governors throughout the world.

7.For those who are willing to make an effort, great miracles and wonderful treasures are in store - Issac Bashevis Singer


H



Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Bloomberg and Russell

1.Wall Street Journal - China's central bank today raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, the strongest move yet by Beijing to withdraw stimulus that helped the economy weather the global slump but now threatens to fuel inflation.

2.The news shook up currency markets, with the U.S. dollar jumping. The move is likely to slow down China's rapid growth and hit its demand for raw materials, in turn putting pressure on the Australian and Canadian dollar, which are highly dependent on commodities exports.

Comment: As the USD strengthens so equity markets fall.
Interesting question: Who leads global markets today?  When China sneezes......

3.Clearly, the biggest question and argument at this time is whether we're heading into deflation, inflation, stagflation -- or deflation and then inflation. Nobody has a clear answer to this puzzle, so "why push it? What's wrong with just waiting and observing."

4.The Fed is obviously and openly worried about deflation (or as they put it, "not enough inflation") and they're worried sick about unemployment. Many believe that the Fed is ready to sacrifice the dollar if that's what it takes to beat deflation.

5.On November 3 the Fed Open Market Committee meets, and the widely-shared expectation is that the Fed will trigger QE2, meaning a new wave of quantitative easing.
The last thing the Fed wants is to disappoint the markets -- thus the markets are primed and ready for QE2. 

Question: Has QE2 been fully discounted?

Remember the rule: A country's economic power is measured by the strength of its currency.

6.We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them - Albert Einstein

H

Supply and Demand...

Headline: A century ago, world population was around  a billion souls. Today, seven (7) billion people inhabit our planet. 
To summarise previous posts, the first decades of the 21st Century will be characterised by shortages of food, energy, raw materials, land and clean water. Lets look at the figures since January, and all this in spite of an economic slowdown.....

Scoreboard year-to-date in percentages
Gold.....+ 23/6%
Silver.....+38.7%
Platinum .....+15.5%
Palladium.....+ 44.6%
Copper....13.6


Agricultural
Cattle (lb)....................+12.0%             
Coffee (lb)...................+36.9%
Corn (bu).....................+37.3%
Cotton (lb)...................+46.7%
Lumber(1000 bd.ft.)....+32.9%
Orange Juice (lb)..........+19.7%
Soy beans (bu)..............+13.2%
Wheat (bu)....................+29.8%

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change - Charles Darwin

H

Friday, October 15, 2010

"The Middle East has oil, China has Rare Earths".

Have you ever heard of the Diaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea? I haven't. But just five weeks ago, this tiny island chain became the focus of a superpower dispute between China and Japan — ancient rivals that have laid claim to the land and to the oil and natural gas reserves that lay below the sea floor.
The events unfold as follows

1.On September 7th, a Chinese fishing vessel collided with a Japanese Coast Guard ship in the waters off the disputed island chain. In a provocative move, Japan arrested the Chinese boat captain, as well as 14 other Chinese who were on the boat.

2.China called the skipper's arrest invalid and illegal, arguing that the islands have been part of China since ancient times. They demanded the immediate release of the captain.
In response, a group of Japanese ruling party lawmakers said the Japanese government should consider stationing troops on the islands.

3.When Japan didn’t comply with the request, China responded with a devastating economic decision...
On September 22nd, the Chinese halted exports to Japan of a vital metals group  called rare earth elements, and they’ve become some of the most sought-after metals by governments and corporations alike.
China accounts for over 95% of the global rare earth production. This means that if you want rare earths, you have to go to China.

4.According to the New York Times, "The Mideast had oil, but China has Rare Earth Elements. As OPEC did with oil...China is about to tighten its hammerlock on the market for some of the world's most valuable metals."
From hybrid car batteries to wind turbine motors to missile guidance systems... From iPhones to solar panels to flat screen TVs…
Metals such as cerium, promethium, europium, and many of the remaining 17 rare earth elements are essential to all modern electronic devices that use:
  • rechargeable batteries
  • electric motors
  • photo optics
  • solar cells
  • strong magnets
Toyota’s hot selling hybrid car, the Prius, uses more than half-a-dozen rare earth metals.

5.Bottom line: Without rare earths, Toyota’s production of the Prius comes to a halt. Without rare earth metals, there can be no hybrid or electric car industry. And without rare earth metals, there can be no renewable energy market. Imagine a cellphone the size of a shoe. Or a laptop weighing 10 kilograms. That’s what we would be carrying around today, if not for the rare earth metals.  Their unique properties that have enabled the miniaturization of  electronic components including capacitors, lasers and powerful magnets. 

6.Needless to say, and without further ado,the Japanese, immediately released the Chinese boat captain. 

Congress and the Senate immediateley passed bills instructing the secretary of energy to issue a report to industry describing available mechanisms for obtaining government loan guarantees to reestablish a domestic rare earth supply chain; and (2) issue guidance for the rare earth industry on obtaining federal loan guarantees.

Too little too late?
As the world looks to sources for its rare earth supply outside of China, this crisis has set off a bull market in rare earth mining stocks.

Take a look at Rare Element Resources (AMEX: REE):
 rare earth amex stock


Fascinating, isn't it? (also check out "Supply and Demand 2" on this blog)

Harry