Thursday, February 3, 2011

Egypt....Where to Now?

1.Three decades ago, President Jimmy Carter urged another staunch American ally – the shah of Iran – to loosen his grip on power, only to see his autocratic regime replaced by the Islamic Republic. More recently, U.S.-supported elections have strengthened such groups as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories and anti-American radicals in Iran.

2.Jimmy Carter will go down in American history as 'the president who lost Iran,'" the analyst Aluf Benn wrote in the daily Haaretz this week. "Barack Obama will be remembered as the president who 'lost' Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt, and during whose tenure America's alliances in the Middle East crumbled,"
COMMENT: Recognise any similarities between the two presidents?

3.The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the "American and Israeli intervention in Egypt" and warned that "any measure against the popular movement in Egypt would lead to waves of rage throughout the world." 

COMMENT: Obama and Iran both support the opposition in Egypt. Strange bedfellows....Who do you think understands the Islamic world more?

4.Mubarak described Obama as a very good man, but when asked by ABC if he felt that the United States had betrayed him, he said he told the US president: "You don't understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now."

Analysis: With the last statement we reach the crux of the matter. Obama understands the problem, but is held prisoner by his own political dogma, so instead of calling a spade a spade he tries to walk a thin line. Mubarak is a proud Egyptian who knows his people and understands that democracy (I use that word delicately), if at all possible, needs to come slowly. The Muslim Brotherhood have been suppressed for decades and this is their opportunity to take power (anybody who claims that this movement cares about democracy and the people is a complete idiot). They also know that if the military regime maintains power, they are walking dead men. Therefore they will stay in the square and fight to the end. Mubarak knows that the Genie has escaped the bottle, so he will attempt to force it back. His lifes work and legacy depend on it. So he is not going anywhere soon, not while he still controls the army and the police. You can count on it.

P.S. The two main candidates to take over from Mubarak, assuming he maintains control, are his VP Omar Suleiman, and the head of the military and former defense minister, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi.

"Whoever said the pen is mightier than the sword obviously never encountered automatic weapons." - General MacArthur 

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