A shadow war is exactly what the name reflects. Usually this combat takes place far from the public eye, and generally is not reported in the media because it is so difficult to confirm any of the facts. On occasion a relatively insignificant incident creates a situation whereby, if closely watched can set in motion events that are similar to a mystery novel.
One such event took place recently. Midnight, on the 26th of November, soldiers manning a Pakistan Army post on the Afghan border, detected a movement in a valley below. The checkpoint is 2 km inside Pakistani territory and located on high ground. After identifying the movement as armed individuals via night vision devices, spot light and flares, the soldiers opened fire. Shortly, they came under attack of an AH-64 US Apache helicopter, resulting in the loss of 24 lives. What caused a US helicopter gunship to attack a friendly outpost? More importantly, the events that follow will place the American war effort in Afghanistan under a cloud.
As it turns out, there are two types of Taliban operating in this region. A Pakistani Taliban and an Afghani Taliban. Who would have known? Pakistani intelligence is fighting a covert war against Pakistani Taliban while supporting their Afghan counterparts against the US. This might explain how bin Laden lived a few kilometres from Pakistan Intelligence headquarters, right under their noses. Anyway, back to the incident. Remember, its midnight and pretty dark in those mountains. The Pakistani's assumed that the movement was Pakistani Taliban and opened fire on US forces conducting a search and destroy mission in Pakistani territory. The Americans, always accompanied by air support called it in, and hence the tragedy.
A quick survey of the bigger picture reveals the following. American forces in Afghanistan are supplied via three main arteries. By air, via the Khyber Pass in Pakistan and the Northern Distribution Network through Russia. Pakistan, outraged by the mistake closes the Khyber Pass, and keeps it closed, in spite of US apologies. Supply by air is horrendously expensive and not a solution. NATO’s absolute reliance on Russian cooperation to keep the landlocked Afghan war going — has given the Kremlin a powerful bargaining tool.
And now the plot thickens. The U.S. government recently worked out agreements with its counterparts in Romania and Turkey to set up new missile defense systems — supposedly to protect Europe from a hypothetical attack by Iran. But the Russian regime is not happy about it, arguing that it would alter the nuclear balance of geopolitical power, and has become increasingly vocal in recent weeks. In addition, the Americans are in the process of negotiating and signing ballistic missile defence (BMD) agreements with countries in central Europe, much to the anger of Russia who have there own ambitions in the area. Don't forget that Russia supplies most of Europe and Turkey with energy.
It is doubtful that the Russians would go so far as to strangle NATO in Afghanistan, but there must be some nerves jangling at the Pentagon. A test of the new found Russian leverage will be in the coming days as Russia attempts to join the World Trade Organization. The American position will be of interest.
With all of this as background, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on Thursday, openly admitted the US had encouraged protests in Russia after Vladimir Putin's United Russia party held on to power in the most recent elections. "Human rights is a part of who we are. And we expressed concerns that we thought were well founded about the conduct of the elections," she said. The unfortunate timing of these public comments when she has the possibility of expressing her displeasure through other channels, certainly adds a little more spice to the brew.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things - T.S. Eliot
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