The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. The European Union was created out of a desire to end hostilities between European countries. There do not appear to be grey areas in Europe with regards to war or peace. So this time they decided on a peaceful strategy where the gold at the end of the rainbow would be economic prosperity for all. After 2008 that all went south and I think it is fair to say that Europe was in crisis long before the refugee influx had any influence. The stream of refugees heading to Europe from the Middle East is turning into a river. Islam is imploding and the strategy of turning Europe into the new homeland for muslims is taking shape. The EU policy of open borders (The Schenghen treaty) appears to be crumbling. COMMENT: Folks this can no longer be termed a simple crisis. This is the onset of a revolution. Watch the Euro currency for further indications.

2.Michael Lewitt, author of The Credit Strategist: Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, the yield curve is flattening, ObamaCare is collapsing, global trade is plummeting and terrorism is spreading across the globe. The high yield credit markets are sending distress signals and 10-year swap spreads are negative. Energy companies are going out of business faster than you can say “frack” and trillions of dollars of European bonds are again trading at negative interest rates. The world is drowning in more than $200 trillion of debt that can never be repaid while European and Japanese central bankers promise to print more money and the Federal Reserve is being dragged kicking-and-screaming into raising interest rates by a paltry 25 basis points. COMMENT: Somewhere along the line markets will begin to reflect this reality. Be careful.

3.The Canadian Liberal government will not meet its self-imposed Dec. 31 deadline to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada. Instead, 10,000 will be transported to Canada by the end of 2015 and the rest will be resettled in the first two months of 2016.(If you believe that...good on you!) Priority for government refugees will be given to families, women at risk, members of sexual minorities and single men only if they are identified as members of an LGBT community. QUESTIONS: Is this not the definition of profiling? How will they identify Gay men or women at risk? How will they identify female suicide bombers in this privileged group? Will these poor people land up in Muslim ghettoes similar to those in Europe? How long will it take for Canadian Liberals to wake up and smell the coffee?

4.So Mister Looney Toons himself, Donald Trump saw thousands of arabs celebrating the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey. CNN is having a field day with Trump and his nonsense while ignoring the fact that Palestinians and arabs all over the Muslim world cheered the Paris attacks (Google it). QUESTION: Who is more delusional....Trump or CNN?

5.The Western media is aghast at what they have created and the cover up continues. Each time they discuss ISIS one gets the sense that they are terrified of this scum (and of course conveying this fear to their audience). Every atrocity committed by the savages is broadcast over and over thus spreading the ISIS message of fear and terror. Its also great for ratings and advertising. It's a scratch my back and I'll scratch yours type of thing. Strange bedfellows working hand in hand. Whatever happened to the good ol' Palestinian question and lambasting Israel? 

6. If anyone will take care of ISIS, it will be Putin and the Russians. They are not inhibited by the PC Obama style of warfare and (to boot), they have boots on the ground to supplement their other forces. Besides the Syrian army, there are now increasing numbers of Russian armed forces on the ground. COMMENT: If this French government hopes to have the slimmest possibility of survival come election time, they will have to adopt the Russian attitude to warfare.  

7. So the Turks thought they were sending a message to Putin by knocking down one of his planes. They say they warned the Russian plane ten times. According to most sources, the Russian plane was over Turkey for 17 seconds. Ten times? Stupid mistake. Russia has now suspended buying fruit and veggies from Turkey and is importing from Israel. On another note, there is excellent co-operation between the IAF and the the Russian air force. QUESTION: Does Israel see an alternative to Assad? I doubt it. So while Obama is pushing for elections in Syria (Elections...really?) he should be more worried about his legacy.

8.It is seldom that a large company in trouble can have a geopolitical effect. However this holds true for Volkswagen, the largest auto company in the world. Germany is Europe's engine, and its economy depends largely on its exports, which equal 45 percent of its gross domestic product. The automotive sector makes up 17 percent of Germany's exports, the highest portion from any single industry. Volkswagen's woes may expand to Germany's automotive sector, which may in turn expand to the German export machine, dimming the one bright light in Germany's plan for Europe — its own performance. COMMENT: Watch for contagion.


Feeling sorry for those who want you to feel sorry for them is like giving an alcoholic a gift certificate to a liquor store - Guy Finley

The Insurance Policy

The price of oil is down in the doldrums. Energy supply is abundant and will remain so while China is slowing down. From an American point of view with energy independence in sight and hurting over unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in strategy was required. The plan was to change strategic emphasis from the Middle East to South East Asia and Europe in order to balance the emerging power of China and Russia. In order to do this the US had to create a balance of power in the Mideast and hence everything"but the kitchen table" surrender to the Iranian Mullahs.  An amusing portrayal from an Iranian point of view can be seen at this youtube link.

https://youtu.be/PsaoSONHh9M

The unfortunate part about this deal by the Obama administration is the attempt to spin it as a successful and balanced win win deal when in fact it is a disorganized retreat from a problematic Middle East to facilitate more important objectives in South East Asia and Europe.

The good old days of OPEC and the grovelling to these arrogant folk are over. Saudi Arabia and Russia are in the process of flooding world markets with oil in what appears to be an unsuccessful attempt to defeat the US shale oil industry. They believe that by keeping the price low around $40 dollars a barrel or less, they can force the American shale oil industry into bankruptcy and thus keep their market share. A huge mistake. As a result of new and cleaner technologies the average break-even price of shale oil has dropped from $70 a barrel to about $50 a barrel However, the emergence of even more advanced technologies has some rigs producing at $10-$20 dollars a barrel. Bottom line, the energy crisis is over and we can look forward to an era of cheap energy for the foreseeable future.

With this narrative in mind, lets take a look at the Middle East. Not only are oil revenues dwindling, there are substantial water shortages in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Iraq. All these countries are embroiled in civil wars. As the water table continues to fall, things can only get worse. Economically, Islam is imploding and the trickle of refugees migrating to Europe has now become a stream soon to be a river and then a sea. This does not bode well for the region. The vacuum created by the US retreat has left the way open for Russia and China to wield their influence, while Sunni and Shiite extremists in the form of ISIS and Iran look to form caliphates.

So how do the Americans plan to guard their interests? The intention is to create a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and its allies, Turkey and Iran. While they keep each other busy, and with one eye on Israel, the US can move assets to South East Asia and Europe. An Israel, armed to the teeth would be the administration's insurance policy. This might explain why regardless of the cold political mood in Washington, the US continues to strengthen Israel militarily. Sounds logical but thats where it ends.

In order for a strategy to be functional it has to be efficiently implemented, otherwise Murphy's law (what can go wrong, will go wrong) takes over. "Efficient" is not a word that can be used to describe Obama and Kerry's negotiating skills. They naively assumed that as long as the players in the region were preoccupied with each other they would leave the US alone. Nothing could be further from reality. The imploding region is casting envious eyes towards the decadent societies of Europe and North America.

So while Barack Obama sings "Amazing Grace", these folks are chanting "Death to America" and preparing a Trojan Horse. The barbarians are no longer at the gate. They are amongst a population that still imagines that the Iranian deal will prevent a war that is already raging.  This is the unfortunate result of a leadership obsessed with political correctness, arrogance and legacy.

Just remember - when you think all is lost, the future remains - Bob Goddard

Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The headquarters of the BRICS New Development Bank opened in Shanghai on July 21, Tass reported. The BRICS trade group — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — reached an agreement to launch the new bank a year ago, with a starting capitalization of some $50 billion. Beijing sees the BRICS bank as yet another tool, along with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to pick away at the U.S.-dominated financial system. COMMENT: For the time being the USD is the king of currencies.

2.Russian authorities are planning on restoring civilian and defense infrastructure on the disputed Kuril Islands, which Japan also claims, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said July 23, Tass reported. The Kurils are key to protecting Russia's frontiers, said Medvedev, who plans to visit the islands at an undisclosed date and is encouraging other Cabinet ministers to do the same. COMMENT: The Chinese believe in economic power. The Russians believe in military power.

3.One in five Ottawa residents allegedly subscribed to adulterers' website Ashley Madison, making one of the world's coldest capitals among the hottest for extra-marital hookups. Some 189,810 Ashley Madison users were registered in Ottawa, a city with a population of about 883,000, making the capital No. 1 for philanderers in Canada and potentially the highest globally per capita, according to previously published figures from the Toronto-based company. COMMENT: Wow!

4.Tony Sagami: Xiaomi—pronounced SHOW-em—is a smartphone maker, and it happens to make the #1 bestselling smartphone in China. Yup, Xiaomi is even more popular than the Apple iPhone. The most recent market share numbers show that Xiaomi grabbed 15.9% of the mobile phone market in China during the second quarter of this year. In 2014, Xiaomi sold 420 million smartphones and pulled in $12 billion in revenues. COMMENT: This might explain the recent pressure on Apple shares.

5.The Russian economy shrank 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to official government figures released Aug. 10, the Moscow Times reported. At the same time on Aug. 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a crackdown on violations of the Kremlin's food sanctions against the European Union and the United States, during which some illegally imported food was destroyed. COMMENT: Why wouldn't they gift this food to the poor? All of the above spells two words...Trouble ahead!

6.China’s central bank devalued the yuan on Aug. 11, sparking a wave of selling in foreign exchange markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. Beijing pushed the daily fixing rate against the dollar down 1.9 percent — its biggest single-day loss in two decades — and it vowed to allow market forces a greater degree of influence over the currency.  COMMENT: The currency wars continue - another flicking red light.

7.Despite the chilly relations in the diplomatic arena, Turkey has become the most active destination for flights from Israel, according to an Israel Airports Authority (IAA) summary of the month of July, which was released Monday. The United States, which has been the most active destination of direct flights from Israel for years, fell to the third place, while Greece went up to the second place. July 2015 was a record-breaking month for Israeli tourists departing on vacations, and it looks like August will see that record broken once more, with 2015 becoming an overall record year for outgoing Israeli tourism. COMMENT: The strong Israeli Shekel (stronger than both the USD and Euro) is sending Israelis abroad in droves, while incoming tourism is faltering.

If your horse dies get off - Old business axiom

Since life is growth and motion, a fixed point of view kills anybody who has one - Brooks Atkinson

The Winds of Change

I have written many times that the top priority for the US is the strategic and military control of sea lanes that provide freedom of trade vital to US economic interests. For example, in the last half century energy has been of vital importance to the US and world economy and therefore the US has military bases and ports along these routes. They use their massive sea and air power to patrol different trade routes. To emphasize the point, the military of the United States is deployed in more than 150 countries around the world. Now that energy is in abundant over supply, we continue to follow the money. 

In a previous blog (http://www.inctruth.blogspot.ca/2015/03/the-balance-of-power-part-one.html) I wrote: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. When one adds the undeniable fact that the US is energy  independent, it makes sense to beat a retreat from the failed policies in the troublesome Middle East and to confront the economic and military power of the expanding China/Russia alliance. The Iranian deal was meant to facilitate this change in policy. Typically the deal has been presented as a victory of sorts, when in fact it was a monumental retreat of US leadership in the region.

More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through choke points in the South China Sea and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. The oil transported through the Malacca Strait from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia through the South China Sea, is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and fifteen times the amount that transits the Panama Canal. Roughly two thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60 percent of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and 80 percent of China’s crude oil imports come through the South China Sea. Whereas in the Persian Gulf only energy is transported, in the South China Sea you have energy, finished goods, and unfinished goods. Furthermore Ninety percent of Chinese exports pass through these choke points, mostly controlled by US allies 

In addition to centrality of location, the South China Sea has proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels, and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. 

So while attention is on the Iran deal, the following is taking place:

1.Leaders from the Russian and Chinese navies signed a protocol July 17 on joint naval drills to be held at the end of August in the Sea of Japan, Tass reported. The maneuvers will for the first time involve a joint amphibious assault drill in Russia’s Primorsky territory and include the participation of carrier-based aircraft, a Russian Pacific Fleet spokesman said. In May, the two countries held joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean.

2.The Philippine military announced that it would hold joint naval drills with Japan from June 22-26. Just four days before the announcement, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III concluded a state visit to Japan. Aquino announced that the Philippines and Japan were ready to begin talks on a visiting forces agreement. The Philippines is eager to bring in as many outside parties as possible to bolster its position in its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.

3.Japan’s ruling coalition pushed major security legislation through a lower house panel July 15, setting the bills up for passage by the lower house as early as July 16, Kyodo reported. The legislation would broaden the scope of overseas operations by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, marking the most dramatic shift in Japanese security policy since World War II. 

4.Japan may conduct patrols and surveillance activities in the South China Sea to counter a China that is likely to become increasingly assertive in the region, Japan’s top military commander, Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano, said in a speech July 16 during a visit to Washington, Reuters reported. 

5.China has almost finished building a 3,000-metre-long airstrip on one of its artificial islands in the disputed Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea, according to a report from Reuters. The airstrip, will be long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft and may be operational within months.

Its interesting how this flashpoint is developing under our noses while the western media is obsessing over Donald Trump and co.

“There are those whose primary ability is to spin wheels of manipulation. It is their second skin and without these spinning wheels, they simply do not know how to function. They are like toys on wheels of manipulation and control. If you remove one of the wheels, they'll never be able to feel secure, be whole.” ― C. JoyBell C. 

Watching foreign affairs is sometimes like watching a magician; the eye is drawn to the hand performing the dramatic flourishes, leaving the other hand - the one doing the important job - unnoticed. - David K. Shipler

When the oak is felled the whole forest echoes with it fall, but a hundred acorns are sown in silence by an unnoticed breeze - Thomas Carlyle

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The nuclear deal with Iran is not built on trust, U.S. President Barack Obama said at a July 14 news conference, but on verification, and it meets all the bottom lines from the framework deal reached previously. The United States negotiated from a position of strength and principle, Obama said, and every pathway to a nuclear weapon has been cut off. COMMENT: Obama says....LOL

2.JUBA, South Sudan — Warring forces in South Sudan have carried out horrific crimes against children, including castration, rape and tying them together before slitting their throats, the UN has said. “Survivors report that boys have been castrated and left to bleed to death… girls as young as eight have been gang raped and murdered,” UN children’s agency UNICEF chief Anthony Lake said in a statement released earlier this week.
“Children have been tied together before their attackers slit their throats… others have been thrown into burning buildings.” COMMENT: This is not news on CNN...and anyway, Israel will ultimately be held responsible.

3. In 2002, Montreal’s Concordia University was home to infamous riots preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from speaking. In 2015, the same university hosted the largest annual international academic gathering for the field of Israel Studies. What a difference 13 years makes. Many of Israel’s considerable advances for the benefit of humankind were showcased earlier this month during the 31st Annual Meeting of the Association for Israel Studies (AIS) at Concordia. Outgoing AIS President Menachem Hofnung called this year’s event “the largest assembly I have presided over.” COMMENT: Go Concordia! Read more http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2015/6/22/israel-studies-confab-gives-canadian-university-new-narrative-on-jewish-state#.VYrWQGBYX5S=

4.The No. 1 U.S. bank by assets JP Morgan revealed 2015 second-quarter earnings per share of $1.54 a share on revenue of $24.53 billion. For the full year of 2008 net income was $5.6 billion and 4th quarter net income only $700 million. COMMENT: Anybody remember the Obama speeches on the big banks getting smaller or perhaps the speeches on Wall Street and main Street? So Wall Street rose 300% and the rich got richer while Main Street....he must have been referring to Baltimore, Ferguson and other ghettoes in the US.

5.New York City reached a $5.9 million settlement Monday with the family of Eric Garner, whose death after he was placed in a chokehold by a police officer sparked a public outcry, officials said. COMMENT: The death of Eric garner was widely reported and this deal.....obviously not newsworthy. 

6.Tony Sagami: You can gnash your teeth over the Greek debt crisis or the Chinese stock meltdown, but one economic sure-thing you should be watching is the collapsing fundamentals of the transportation industry. More problematic for the stock market is that the profit outlook for transportation stocks, particularly ocean shipping companies, is horrible. Drewry Maritime Research estimates that the break-even rate for most container ships is $800 per TEU on the Asia-Europe route. The price today is $243. COMMENT: These numbers are a red light for investors. Read more: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/connecting-the-dots/sinking-ships-train-wrecks-and-empty-trucks-my-case-against-transportation

7.The Greeks voted "no" against austerity. Their government, after supporting the "no" vote then proceeded to ignore the will of the people and approved the same austerity package. Germany, using all its power then humiliated the Greeks and presented what is basically a "takeover" package which will now go to a vote in the Greek parliament. The cat is amongst the pigeons. George Friedman: The specifics are less important than the fact that Greece invoked its sovereign right, and Germany responded by enforcing an agreement that compelled the Greeks to cede those rights. 

8. George Friedman (continued): In World War II, the Germans occupied Greece. As in much of the rest of Europe, the memory of that occupation is now in the country's DNA. This will be seen as the return of German occupation, and opponents of the deal will certainly use that argument. The manner in which the deal was made and extended by the Germans to provide outside control will resurrect historical memories of German occupation. It has already started. The aggressive inflexibility of the Germans can be understood as an attitude motivated by German fears, but then Germany has always been a frightened country responding with bravado and self-confidence. Read more: https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/empire-strikes-back-germany-and-greek-crisis?login=1

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool - Richard P. Feynman

The serpent, the king, the tiger, the stinging wasp, the small child, the dog owned by other people, and the fool: these seven ought not to be awakened from sleep - Chanakya

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.(Reuters) - The death toll from an air strike by U.S.-led forces on the northern Syrian province of Aleppo on Friday has risen to 52 including seven children, a group monitoring the conflict said on Saturday. The British-based Observatory for Human Rights said the air raid on Friday had mistakenly struck civilians in a village on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River in Aleppo, killing members of at least six families. COMMENT: Interesting how none of this is reported by the same pro-Obama media that castigated Israel during the Gaza war. Apparently the Hollywood type self-pity festival in Baltimore is more newsworthy than a bunch of innocent Arab families who were not killed by Israelis. 

2.Quietly and without any fanfare, ISIS is taking baby steps in Gaza. "An explosion damaged a Hamas security headquarters building in Gaza City on May 4, the Daily Star reported. The explosion followed a message from an anti-Hamas radical Islam group, called the Supporters of ISIS in Jerusalem, demanding the release of jihadist prisoners within 72 hours or an attack would be imminent." COMMENT: Imagine that....ISIS vs Hamas in Gaza. What say you John Kerry? And now this same ISIS affiliated group is firing rockets at Israel....

3.Invest Yourself: "The all seeing, all knowing grand poobah's which we affectionately call the Federal Reserve have told us for years that they, and ONLY they know how to steer an economy to prosperity.  Over the years they've hiked interest rates, cut interest rates, printed money, bought back Treasuries, "twisted", QE'd and God only knows what else. So, how'd they do? Today we learned that the first quarter GDP came in at a whopping 0.2%.(Now revised to -0.7%). Yes folks, after all the machinations, after all the huff and bluff, after all the trillions, the economy missed being negative by two tenths of ONE point. Bravo!  What a performance!   If this band of criminals actually had to work for someone and this is the performance they achieve they'd have been fired years ago." COMMENT: Truth be told, first quarter GDP in the US is usually weak. Let's see how the second quarter goes.

4.TOI: Newly crowned Saudi King Salman has refused an invitation to attend a landmark summit hosted by President Barack Obama, amid angst over US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Obama had invited six Gulf kings, emirs and sultans to the presidential retreat at Camp David, seeking to shore up wavering trust while Washington negotiates with regional power Tehran. Obama’s plans now lie in tatters, with only two heads of state slated to attend the Thursday meeting. COMMENT: The perfect storm cloud on the horizon continues to grow for this president.

5.Turkey’s lira weakened to an all-time low and stocks plunged after voters denied the ruling AK Party (Erdogan) a majority government for the first time since 2002. The currency tumbled as much as 5.2 percent and the benchmark stock index dropped the most in two years. The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, won 40.9 percent of the vote, giving it 258 seats in parliament, according to preliminary results from the state-run news agency. It needed 276 to form a single-party government. COMMENT: A round of burgers and fries for all while we watch the slow (the slower, the better) demise of this anti-semite.

6. Bloomberg: The U.S. has taken Russia’s crown as the world’s biggest oil and natural-gas producer, illustrating the seismic shifts in the global energy landscape caused by America’s shale fields. U.S. oil production rose to an all-time high last year, gaining 1.6 million barrels a day, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy released on Wednesday. Gas output also rose, putting America ahead of Russia as a producer of the hydrocarbons combined. Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-shale-oil-boom-grinding-080857319.html

7.Yahoo: The shale oil boom that turned the U.S. into the world’s largest fuel producer and brought $3 gasoline back to America’s pumps is grinding to a halt. Crude output from the prolific tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’s Eagle Ford shale will shrink 1.3 percent to 5.58 million barrels a day this month, based on Energy Information Administration estimates. It’ll drop further in July to 5.49 million, the lowest level since January, the agency said Monday. Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-shale-oil-boom-grinding-080857319.html COMMENT: Hmmm...a flare-up between the Saudis and Iran has the potential to create havoc in world markets....just saying.

The future was plump with promise - Maya Angelou

It is the business of the future to be dangerous- Alfred North Whitehead 

Beware when the great god lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. David Horovitz: But the deal is far worse than even our relentlessly lowered expectations had given us reason to anticipate. The Arak heavy water plant is not to be dismantled. Why not? Because this was the best deal we could get. The Fordo enrichment facility, built secretly into a mountain, is not to be shuttered. Why not? Because this was the best deal we could get. Thousands of centrifuges are to be allowed to keep on spinning. Thousands more will remain intact. For heaven’s sake, why? Because this was the best deal we could get. All this according to the — so far — undisputed elements of the unsigned agreement. COMMENT: The Obama-Kerry Implosion. The quiet whisperings in the Iranian Caliphate have changed to raucous derision. They are already cheating. Read more http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-unfolding-farce-of-obamas-deal-with-iran/#ixzz3Wjbw0Pii

2.Job approval ratings for President Obama have dropped among American Jews from 61 percent to 50 percent since the start of 2015, a new Gallup poll found.
The American Jews interviewed for the poll released this week gave Obama a 50 percent approval rating in March, dropping from 52 percent in February and 61 percent in January.
The poll results were based on interviews with 1,022 Americans who identified themselves as Jewish and conducted as part of daily tracking from January through the end of March. 
COMMENT: In the last election, 70% of American Jews voted Obama. Maybe some are beginning to realize that this man's naivety, his personal likes and dislikes and his non-existent red lines are facilitating a dangerous security environment for Americans at home and worldwide.

3. NYT: The White House relented on Tuesday and said President Obama would sign a compromise bill giving Congress a voice on the proposed nuclear accord with Iran as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in rare unanimous agreement, moved the legislation to the full Senate for a vote.  White House officials insisted they extracted crucial last-minute concessions. Republicans — and many Democrats — said the president simply got overrun.
COMMENT: Music to my ears.

4.Stratfor: Several events in Gaza in recent months have indicated the possible presence of Islamic State affiliates. The highest-profile incident was the arrest of a Salafist cleric on April 6 by Hamas' security forces. More interesting is the series of attacks that preceded and followed the arrest. A number of improvised explosive devices have been set off around Gaza City, typically causing minimal damage and no casualties. COMMENT: We at the Gallery and the IDF wish ISIS the best of success in Gaza. Read more: https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/hamas-cracks-down-islamic-state-gaza

5. NYT:  As the Russians gradually assumed control of Uranium One in three separate transactions from 2009 to 2013, Canadian records show, a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors. And shortly after the Russians announced their intention to acquire a majority stake in Uranium One, Mr. Clinton received $500,000 for a Moscow speech from a Russian investment bank with links to the Kremlin that was promoting Uranium One stock. Whether the donations played any role in the approval of the uranium deal is unknown. COMMENT: Does this pass a smell test....I doubt it. Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html

6. BO: “They (the Dems) don’t know what they’re talking about.” [TPP] is the most progressive trade agreement in our history,” he said. “It’s got strong provisions for works strong provisions for the environment. And unlike some past trade agreements, all these provisions are actually enforceable. COMMENT: This agreement is strongly supported by the Republicans. What happened to the 99 percent? Who remembers Occupy Wall Street or the unions and the poor masses who rushed to support their messiah? Obama printed trillions, Wall Street made a fortune, the banks are coining it and the poor...well they are at war with the cops and getting poorer. As for the almost non existent middle class and small business? They just have to suck it up. The social wars have just begun. Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102618055

A lie makes it all the way around the world and the truth – which is often less interesting than the lie – makes it to the bottom of a Google search. 
Alan Dershowitz  

Preposterous Predictions...Follow Up

Sunday, January 18, 2015 - How are we doing today 19th April 2015?

Preposterous Predictions
If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good!

1.The Middle East will continue to degenerate into the wild east, with Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and a surprising erosion in Turkey. Sunni and Shiite extremists will battle it out with each other and with secular muslims. To add a little spice to this Jihadist salad, they will target a confused western world with growing appetites the way a predator senses fear and goes for the jugular.

2. And since misery loves company, Africa as a continent will have to contend with a rising Islamic wave (Boko Harem, al Shabaab and Ansar al sharia to name a few) together with tribal rivalries, water and food shortages. Not a pretty sight. Anyone contemplating going on Safari, should stick to South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Tanzania.

3.We will witness the demise of OPEC as energy markets wallow in oversupply interrupted by the occasional civil war. Even countries will go belly up, the most conspicuous being Venezuela closely followed by Libya and Nigeria.

4. The US Iran nuclear negotiations will draw to a successful close, and most sanctions will be lifted. That might sound like good news to Iran but they will find that three things cannot be hidden...the sun, the moon and the truth. In this case the elephant in the room is that by adding Iran's oil supply to the present glut, it will cause a further deterioration in the price. Iran needs oil at $131 dollars a barrel to balance even the most meagre budget. Conclusion easily drawn.

5. Russia and Putin will survive the oil crisis, the Russian people being made of sterner stuff than most. Russia and China will form the baby nucleus of an alliance which will in time challenge the US in many spheres. China will use its huge foreign currency reserves to create new partnerships in emerging markets, notably in countries badly hit by the oil and commodities crises. They are already thinking ahead to the next cycle.

6. Europe has reached the point of no return. Create liquidity or slip into recession. Recession could easily exacerbate the already growing anti-immigration, anti EU groups, whose political power is now something that is of concern to the powers that may be.

7.The two major macroeconomic drivers for 2015 will be the rising US dollar and a global currency war. Central banks, whom until now have worked in tandem will diverge into a "every man for himself" mode, while slowing economies with large US denominated debt will struggle to repay that debt, pressuring an international USD credit bubble already under strain.

8. The US federal reserve who in the minds of many can do no wrong, will find themselves in a quandary as to dealing with the strong USD and raising of US Interest rates, while worldwide inflation flirts with a negative figure. In 2015, we will learn that the markets are bigger and more powerful than even the vaunted Federal Reserve.

9. Many banking systems will be tottering as 2015 unfolds (especially Russia), markets will be volatile, as already witnessed and protection of principle, rather than creation of profits should be the name of the game as regards portfolio management. With so much uncertainty, we make a wild prediction that gold will hit at least $1800 an ounce.

10. President Obama will use the coming period to try and get done what he was unable to accomplish while in control of both houses of congress. The impending collapse of the shale oil boom will dampen some of the economic achievements of his presidency and as for foreign policy achievements....I'm sure he would prefer to forget his creation of an "arab spring".

11. Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't - Alan Greenspan.

Weather forecast for tonight: dark - George Carlin

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.Ben-Dror Yemini: The Muslim world is undergoing a massive upheaval. Arab identity is disappearing. National identity is falling apart. The identity on the rise is Islamic, tribal and sectarian. Death and destruction have reached monumental proportions. Muslims are murdering hundreds of thousands of Muslims. None of the bloody conflicts – between Shias and Sunnis, and between Sunnis and Sunnis – have anything to do with Israel or the Palestinians. Most of those perpetrating the killings don't even know where Israel is on the map. COMMENT: A Two-State solution in today's Israel is the wishful thinking of the deranged. Truthfully I have no solution, but my priority is definite. Keep Israel safe!

2.The chairman of the left Zionist Union on his Facebook page: "I refuse to join those applauding the agreement with Iran, because the truth is it keeps me awake at night,” Cabel wrote. “President Obama promises that if the Iranians cheat, the world will know, but isn’t that exactly what the Americans promised after the agreement with North Korea?” He said that when it comes to Iran, there is no Left or Right or coalition or opposition in Israel, only Israelis. “When a crazy religious regime with a proven track record of terrorism and cheating receives permission to get that close to a nuclear bomb, I am very worried,” Cabel wrote, and then adding more criticism of Obama. “The fact that the man who is in charge of making sure the deal won’t be broken has a proven record of mocking his own redlines, makes me even more worried.” COMMENT: The Peanut Gallery agrees with every word.

3.Isis has reportedly begun beheading captives after taking over the majority of a large Palestinian refugee camp in Syria. UN officials said scenes on the ground in the Yarmouk camp just south of Damascus were “beyond inhumane”, as rebels from the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra vied for control of the camp, which houses around 18,000 civilians. COMMENT: Imagine if these guys took control of Ramallah. Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-accused-of-beheading-captives-in-palestinian-refugee-camp-yarmouk-as-advance-towards-syrian-capital-damascus-continues-10158061.html

4. The deal with the Iranian Caliphate is first and foremost a direct threat to western civilizations. As far as Israel is concerned, the threat is less nuclear, but more immediate. The Iranians are choking economically and are desperate for funds to continue their regional expansion. Obama is in the process of opening this gate to the joy of the celebrating Iranians, Hizbollah, Hamas, Somalia, Houthis of Yemen and Syria. So what if they discontinue their nuclear plans (which is seriously doubtful). Iran is in a win-win situation thanks to the famous Obama doctrine of appeasement.

5. “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years,” Obama said in September 2014 (yeah man...only six months ago) as he outlined his strategy to degrade and destroy ISIS. COMMENT: Two failed states and the US cannot even evacuate its own citizens. Islam is imploding. The only questions left are ...Is the Obama doctrine imploding as well? Is this an imploding presidency? Why should anyone trust this man?

6.Stratfor: The Russian economy has been in steep decline for more than a year and is slipping into another recession. A constellation of factors is causing the decline, including lower oil prices, the West's sanctions, and sour Western investment attitudes because of the Ukraine crisis. This has led to massive capital flight of around $160 billion in 2014 and an estimated $80 billion in 2015; a volatile ruble that lost 40 percent of its value in late 2014; and a likely federal budget deficit of approximately $45 billion in 2015. COMMENT: The Russians are a different proposition to the weak western civilizations. They have survived much worse than this.

7.WSJ: Oil prices surged to their biggest gains in two months on signs of rising demand in both the U.S. and Asia. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose $3, or 6.1%, to $52.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the U.S. benchmark’s biggest day of gains since Feb. 3 and its highest settlement since Feb. 17. COMMENT: take note that since the fall to $43 a barrel, the price of oil is now moving sideways.

Principle Number One: The Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions 

The Balance of Power - Part Two

In part one we examined the US strategy (if you can call it that) as regards The Middle East. We described how The US is in the process of moving assets to the Russia Indo-China arena's to balance the growing power emanating from this area. If someone thinks the Russians are a spent force its time to re-evaluate that assumption. The more Russia has its back to the wall, the more dangerous it becomes. But that is a subject for another day. Where does Israel fit into this constantly changing picture?

The personal vendetta between kings Bibi and Barack might make great headline news on CNN, but frankly, the verbal animosity between the two is marginal to the diverging interests of both sides. As the US slowly contrives to create a "balance" in the region, Israel finds itself in a world of sectarian Islamic violence and changing political alliances. The Americans appear confused as to who the greater danger to their interests are, ISIS or Iran. Iran is taking full advantage of the situation. Netanyahu said it all in his speech to congress. Unfortunately nobody in a decision making capacity is listening. Iran, the Shiite Caliphate now controls Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. They have taken Yemen and are well on their way to controlling most of Iraq.

The ISIS mania is spreading like a wildfire. Every small victory over this Sunni Caliphate is greeted with new gains across the region. A short while ago ISIS was a small marginal group of lunatics in Syria. Today they have footprints in Iraq, Tunisia, Yemen, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Sunni Arab leaders are watching these developments with alarm. The double threat of Iranian nuclear capability and ISIS is making for strange new bedfellows. From an American point of view, they can drink their oil. So who are they turning to? Believe it or not...Israel. Without Israel, neither King Abdullah of Jordan or Abbas, president of the non-existent Palestinian entity, would last very long. Egypt and Israel have created a powerful alliance. The seven Arab kingdoms of the Persian Gulf are quietly talking to Israel and a little known fact is the growing relationship between Israel and Nigeria (note how Nigeria votes at the UN).

These positive developments are tempered by multiple threats from Iranian satellites, Hizbollah in Lebanon/Golan Heights and Hamas in Gaza. No one seems worried about Gaza these days and it is interesting to see how Egypt is choking the life out of the so-called "innocent Palestinian victims" and nobody seems to care. Least of all the morality policemen Kerry and Obama. Hizbollah have their hands full with Syria and cannot afford to open another front at present. However their tens of thousands of missiles are still a threat not to be taken lightly. A larger threat to Israel is the potential infiltration of ISIS and/or Iranian players into the Arab populations of Judea and Samaria.

On a personal note, when I look back at the incompetent Obama years (anybody remember the Arab Spring?), Israel has not done too badly. The economy and the population continue to grow, the western world is getting a dose of Jihad, there is zero possibility of a two state solution regardless of who governs Israel (the issue is only one of tactics) and most important, Israel remains a vibrant democracy in a sea of madness.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty ― Winston S. Churchill 

A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on  ― William S. Burroughs

I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them ― Thomas Jefferson       

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. New reports have emerged on Washington and Tehran's "special understanding" on operations against Islamic State militants in Iraq. The details emerge as U.S. and Iraqi officials warn that actions should be carefully conducted to avoid worsening sectarian tension. The U.S.-led coalition has not conducted airstrikes to coordinate with Iraq's latest offensive in Sunni-dominated Salah al-Din province. Iran is leading this offensive. COMMENT: BO cannot make up his mind who the enemy is. Even Peter Pan knew not to smile at a crocodile. Mr President FYI they are all crocodiles, and they are all smiling at you.

2.  The United Arab Emirates has recalled its ambassador to Sweden, an unnamed Swedish government official said March 18, The Daily Star reported. The source did not disclose why the United Arab Emirates made the move. Last week, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador to Sweden after calling Stockholm's criticism of the Saudi human rights record an interference in its internal affairs. COMMENT: The Swedes call this their Progressive foreign policy. The Swedish attempt to sell human rights to Islam could be termed laughable if it wasn't so pathetic. 

3.Egypt evidently understands that it is no longer regarded by the US as a strategic player in the region. To be fair, the US is trying to remove itself from the region. In the last 3 weeks Egypt has negotiated a missile deal with Russia, purchased grain from Russia and allowed BP to initiate a gas project on condition the joint venture partner is a Russian company. COMMENT: Egypt is also negotiating for the purchase of nuclear technology and spy satellites from the Russians. This appears to be a major policy change.

4.Nigerian Islamic terror group Boko Haram swears formal allegiance to ISIS and posts an oath on Twitter, The Associated Press reports. COMMENT: Population of Nigeria is 50% Muslim. 38% are Sunni and 12% Shia. The other 50% are Christians. COMMENT: Let the games begin! 

5. China will continue to seek more economic and diplomatic cooperation with Russia despite the sanctions Moscow faces over its involvement in the Ukraine crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, France24 reported March 8. The two countries will try to grow bilateral trade to $100 billion by improving financial and energy ties. Other initiatives aimed at improving relations between the countries include constructing a natural gas pipeline, high-speed rail lines and economic development projects. COMMENT: The Chinese couldn't give two hoots about the Ukraine.

6.The People of Israel have spoken loudly and clearly. David Horovitz: Unloved by the Obama administration, relentlessly criticized by ostensibly friendly European governments, attacked day after day by substantial sections of the Hebrew media. Netanyahu did not just scrape back into office. He swept his critics aside and he trounced his rivals." COMMENT: Plainly Israeli's in the vast majority distrust Obama more than they distrust Bibi. As for the Israeli left.....like the price of oil...a collapsing commodity. 

7.(Bloomberg) -- A decision by Whiting Petroleum Corp., the largest producer in North Dakota’s Bakken shale basin, to put itself up for sale looks to be the first tremor in a potential wave of consolidation as $50-a-barrel prices undercut companies with heavy debt and high costs. COMMENT: Its difficult to understand why so many analysts believe that US interest rates will rise this year. The US dollar might continue to rise since the US is the strongest economy amongst an exhausted cluster of punch drunk competitors. BTW all of them rushing to weaken their own currencies...but raise US rates?

In spite of warnings, nothing much happens until the status quo becomes more painful than change - Laurence J. Peter

The hardest thing to believe when you're young is that people will fight to stay in a rut, but not to get out of it - Ellen Glasgow

The Balance of Power - Part One

The United States under Obama no longer regards Israel as the super strategic ally that it did once upon a time. This is part of a long term US strategy that has been playing out over many years, even decades. On the face of it the strategy looks logical from an American point of view. However, like most geopolitical strategies they are usually flawed by the law of unintended consequences. This one especially. To understand that speeches by Netanyahu or Obama have zero effect on strategy we have to start long before either of them sermonized a word. Quite frankly, if a speech is all that it takes to shred a relationship, then that relationship has long ago been shredded.

It might come as a surprise to some, but this so-called "We have always stood behind you" relationship only began quite recently. In the fifties, Israel's weapons were supplied by Russia via Czechoslovakia. Up until 1967 weaponry was provided by France. The survival of Israel was irrelevant to the US, neither here nor there. After 1967, the French stepped away and the Russians resupplied Syria and Egypt with arms. A Russian port in Egypt threatened the US Sixth Fleet. The cold war was at its peak and the US needed to balance Soviet intentions. Of course, who better than little Israel, desperate to survive and who could be easily controlled. So began the age of American aid to Israel and the "relationship" was upgraded.

By 1974 US aid was 20% of Israel's GDP. (By comparison today it is 1%). The end of this romance arrived quietly with the collapse of Communism and has been replaced by a marriage of convenience. The Americans no longer feared Russia and despite a resurgence of US support after 9/11, the Americans slowly began to shift in another direction. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. At the same time China began to flourish economically and threatened shipping lanes through the South China Sea. US resources were needed to check Chinese designs. So how does one do this... withdraw from the Middle East without losing influence and move to check the Chinese? The only logical way is to create a balance of power between four countries in the Middle East. Those countries are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel. Israel might still be ahead in the pecking order, but not by much. A difficult but flawed strategy.

George Friedman: "Israel wanted the United States focused on Israel as its main partner, but the United States has much wider and more complex relations to deal with in the region that required a more nuanced approach." Netanyahu asked for more stringent sanctions on Iran. This will not happen. The US regards ISIS as a strategic threat to its interests in the region and the struggle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria requires some form of US and Iranian co-operation.

This is the root of the divergence on Iran.

This strategy is based on the Muslim countries taking responsibility, boots on the ground responsibility, against groups like ISIS, using US air support. The trick is to keep the rival players weak enough so they have to cooperate. On the face of it this seems to be working. CNN provides free advertising. An enemy is concocted. At one time this enemy had 15000 men riding around on Toyota trucks. One weeks work for the IAF. Not so today. ISIS has now gifted the surprised Americans a great opportunity to implement this hands-off policy. Turkey is slowly stepping up. Egypt has suggested an Inter-Arab force. Saudi Arabia suspiciously watches Iran. Turkey and the Saudis have meetings (just last week) and today Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said his country would support Iraq in an operation to retake Mosul from the Islamic State. So whats wrong with the strategy? Well for one, the US cannot afford a loss to ISIS and they cannot afford Iran taking control of Iraq. Obama and co are better known for mismanagement than balancing acts.

Islam is imploding economically and militarily. Countries like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria and Libya are embroiled in civil wars. There are water and food shortages in in all these countries. Life is worthless unless you are one of 140 million potential Jihadists. Then one dies for virgins or whatever. The flawed assumption is that with a mix of appeasement and distance from the conflict, Americans are generally safe. Quite the mistake! A tidal wave of fleeing Muslim immigration is sweeping Europe. Islam as a religion is taking hold in North America. 

The blunder is in believing that Islam should be grateful to be a part of western civilization. Nothing could be further from the truth. They abhor all other religions as demonstrated by the no go zones in Europe. Every State in the US has ongoing FBI investigations into potential jihadist activity.

It goes without saying that there will be a bad deal with Iran simply because Iran has no intention of abiding by the dictates of the infidel known as the Great Satan. They are just a slightly more sophisticated version of ISIS with a stock of ICBM's in the pantry....and the US needs them in the war against ISIS. Its either that or US boots on the ground. The first or possibly the second foreign sponsored bomb to explode in any US City will shatter all these naive attempts at balance. The barbarians are no longer at the gate...they are amongst us.

Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demands - Unknown

There are some people that if they don't know, you can't tell 'em - Louis Armstrong

The Fuss About Oil

Its old news that the price of crude oil has fallen from around $110 to $43 dollars a barrel in a very short time, giving world markets quite the heart attack (along with yours faithfully). Since then the price has been hovering above $50 a barrel. Below is a six month chart of crude oil.

There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories about this event, one of the most popular

being that President Obama or even the US initiated the fall in the prices. My immediate reaction was one of surprise. "Really?" I thought...If Obama or the US initiated the collapse 

in the price of crude, why did they need to place sanctions on Russia? They could have just sat back and smiled. Why would anybody attempt to damage the US oil and shale industry which has been a key to kick-starting the US economic revival? Finally, the sixty four thousand dollar question. How was this done? The answer is simple. It cannot be done in a free market democracy (unless of course one believes that Hollywood is reality). That then begs the question of what exactly is the tale behind the drama?

Lets look at the facts. In 2008 US oil production was 5 million barrels a day. Today the production is 9 million barrels a day thanks to a boom in shale oil that contributes about 3 million barrels a day. At the same time strong growth in emerging markets like China and India resulted in major energy producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia increasing and diverting their production to these emerging economies. Together with alternative energies, increased oil and gas production and a slowdown in emerging markets a rare "perfect wave"  turned into a tsunami of supply. Amazingly, both Russia and Saudi Arabia increased production and continued to sell oil into this tsunami. Why? 

Its all about market share and a chess game where the Saudi Kingdom avoids a check mate and turns the match to its advantage. Russia, another player, has foreign currency reserves of about $400 billion. The Saudis have double that amount. With these cash reserves they can easily outlast their competitors and creates an opportunity to consolidate their market share. OPEC clearly has collapsed and its every man for himself. Iran, the Saudi rival needs oil revenue to survive. At these prices, they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The US Shale industry requires at least $65-70 a barrel to be cost effective and they are bleeding profits. The alternative energy field is almost bankrupt, unable to compete. So today the game is all about protecting market share.

Bloomberg: "The collapse of oil prices by more than half since June has forced major producers and drillers to cut more than $40 billion in spending and fire 50,000 workers. The number of oil-drilling rigs working onshore has declined by a third since October." Today the US announced record oil stocks and Saudi Arabia has upped production to more than ten million barrels a day. Initially the oil price fell to below $50 a barrel and then recovered to about $52 a barrel. Basically the oil market showed remarkable strength in the face of what could be considered really bad oversupply news. One conclusion might be that the market has discounted the bad news and it is already reflected in the price. For the strong of heart this might even be an opportunity to invest in oil as US producers cut back at a rapid pace, durable producers hold onto market share and the weaker ones disappear into the sunset. Are we witnessing the dawn of an approaching supply demand balance? Time will tell. This drama is still unfolding and a checkmate is not yet in sight. 

When two opposite points of view are expressed with equal intensity, the truth does not necessarily lie exactly halfway between them. It is possible for one side to be simply wrong ― Richard Dawkins 

When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong - Humphrey Neill

Barbarians at the Gate

The writing is on the wall. Whatever the Greek outcome with Europe, the wheels have been set in motion. The Europe we have seen in the last decades is no more. The European Union wagon and its wheels will continue to squeak, run, break an axle and then fall apart. The German driver will crack the whip but as my Dad (bless him) used to say "you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink". Or as the Americans say..."Elvis has left the building".

Whether we like it or not, history has a way of repeating itself. The European countries have never really believed there could be a marriage of convenience with Germany. It's more like kissing your sister. And then there are the multi-cultural policies of Europe. "We will let the Muslims immigrate, teach them our culture, and they will magically turn into Europeans. We will integrate the Ukraine with us, because our way is vastly superior to the Russian way". What arrogance.

As we are slowly finding out, "our way" might be superior, but nobody is buying it. As the economies of  Southern Europe crash, unemployment in some of these countries is higher than during the Great depression of the thirties. Muslim immigration is on the rise, taking jobs from Europeans. "No Go Zones" are all over Europe. Anti-establishment parties are growing more popular by the day. The man made money creation experiment known as  "Quantitave Easing" (QE) by the Americans, Japanese and now Europe is creating economic bubbles and social differences. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer while the middle classes are slowly eroded. This is an incredible breeding ground for Jihadists and their cronies. Manna from heaven.

The history of UN votes against Israel has been well documented. Leading the charge have been the multi-cultural Europeans. The name of the game is appeasement. The "peasants" of Islam need to watch and learn the art of Western culture. Truth be told, they have watched and learned. Just not what they were intended to learn. They learned that western society has many "convenient idiots". They learned that the weak underbelly of western society is saturated with fear. They smiled as the politically correct left allied themselves with the the poor under trodden Islamic masses. The great minds of Europe reached out to the crocodile: "We want you to have what we have. We will teach you about women's rights, gay rights and human rights". Then the law of unintended consequences took over.

When ISIS conquered Mosul, the first order of the day was to establish high speed internet connections, so the population could watch beheadings in hi-def. Nothing sells better than fear in most cultures, so thank the heavens for CNN. Fear sells advertising, creates monsters, helps us to turn to our leaders in time of need and all in the name of freedom of the press. We have a right to know! Then following the terrorist attacks against Jewish and Christian values in Belgian, France and Denmark, the panicked politicians explained to us wide eyed innocents that the attacks were not religious in nature, and nobody in particular had been targeted. Wow!

Thereupon city officials called off Braunschweig's (Germany) carnival parade only 90 minutes before it was scheduled to begin after uncovering what they called a "specific threat of an Islamist attack," BBC reported Feb. 15. Some 250,000 people attend the city's parade every year. The move came hours after a gunman killed 2 civilians and wounded 5 police officers in separate attacks in Copenhagen. This must be the European multi-cultural way of dealing with the threat. Good luck to them. The wheels are coming off and the barbarians are at the gate. Believe it!

How people treat you is their karma; how you react is yours-Wayne Dyer

The wise man does at once what the fool does finally-Niccolo Machiavelli

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. George Friedman about his new book "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe" -  The sense that Europe is shifting was visible in the European Central Bank's decision to ease austerity by increasing liquidity in the system. In my view, this is too little too late; although quantitative easing might work for a recession, Southern Europe is in a depression. This is not merely a word. It means that the infrastructure of businesses that are able to utilize the money has been smashed, and therefore, quantitative easing's impact on unemployment will be limited. It takes a generation to recover from a depression. COMMENT: Its interesting to note that Greece was NOT included in the European QE plan....signs of the future.

2. On Feb. 13, Argentine Federal Prosecutor Gerardo Pollicita requested that a federal judge allow him to continue an investigation into President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's alleged role in a cover-up of Iran's role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires. Pollicita is broadly linked through professional connections to potential conservative presidential candidate Mauricio Macri. COMMENT: This might be political, but six gets you one that this story is going to become Hollywood material.

3. Ephraim Halevy (former Israeli intelligence chief): If Netanyahu were to win the upcoming elections and continue with his current policies toward the Palestinians, a third intifada is unavoidable, Halevy indicated. In a scathing interview, he also criticized the prime minister for propagating fear instead of hope, deploring Netanyahu’s constant mentions of the Holocaust and decrying his reported comparison of today’s Jews of France with pre-Inquisition Spanish Jewry.
COMMENT: The half-full cup for Bibi is empty. Is he wrong? ISIS, Hizbollah and Hamas clearly are filling their cups.
Read more: http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-mossad-boss-fear-mongering-netanyahu-is-antithesis-of-churchill/#ixzz3Qsq7XMdo

4. Former Mossad chief: I don't trust Netanyahu, his actions will cost us.
Meir Dagan says PM's speech won't change Obama's mind on Iran, adds Sharon had arguments with US but kept it quiet while Netanyahu insists on making fights public. COMMENT: Iran is the Shiite version of ISIS. Obama is their type of a "useful idiot". Bibi has made his point and should now stay at home, unless he intends to join the Republican party.  read more: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4620516,00.html

5. Stratfor: It is not hard to imagine the disaster that would ensue if the United States were to export 50 percent of its GDP, and half of it went to Canada and Mexico. A free-trade zone in which the giant pivot is not a net importer can't work. And that is exactly the situation in Europe. Its pivot is Germany, but rather than serving as the engine of growth by being an importer, it became the world's fourth-largest national economy by exporting half its GDP. That can't possibly be sustainable. COMMENT: Unfortunately, history has a way of repeating itself. Especially in Europe.

6. Gatestone: Sweden is now number two on the global list of rape countries. According to a survey from 2010, Sweden, with 53.2 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants, is surpassed only by tiny Lesotho in Southern Africa, with 91.6 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants. COMMENT: Do I need to comment? read more: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape

7.Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states in southeastern Brazil are experiencing the worst drought in a century. The nearly 30 million people living in the extended municipal complex of Sao Paulo have been dealing with extremely low reservoir levels for more than a year. In fact, the water reserves have fallen so low that they are now below the dead level, the point at which water must be pumped up to reach the pipes connecting the reservoir to the greater distribution system. COMMENT: India has enough water for the population, but not the infrastructure to reach all. Looks like water is becoming more and more vital than oil.

“Evil always wins through the strength of its splendid dupes; and there has in all ages been a disastrous alliance between abnormal innocence and abnormal sin.” 

― G.K. Chesterton.

Fill your mouth with marbles and make a speech. Every day reduce the number of marbles in your mouth and make a speech. You will soon become an accredited public speaker -- as soon as you have lost all your marbles - Brooks Hays.

Its only ISIS...Right!

"They burnt a teacher in front of the students in a classroom.  They literally set the teacher on fire with gasoline and made the kids watch." 

"The report indicates children as young as eleven years old faced an “unspeakable” reality: some were tied down or suspended from walls by their limbs, their genitals shocked by electrical currents, their toenails and fingernails ripped from their little bodies. Other children were heinously forced to watch their own relatives be tortured while others still were raped and/or sexually assaulted."

"Reem al Numeri is 14-years-old and recently divorced. She was 11 when she says her father forced her to marry a cousin more than twice her age.Reem says she has been stigmatized by her divorce and now lives the life of an outcast. Without a husband or father to support her, she cannot attend school."

"Children have reportedly been sent into crowded markets with bombs strapped to their small bodies."

" Hey...how many gay bars in islamic countries?"

ISIS? Sorry, not even near.

Once more the ridiculous Western media is doing it again. According to CNN and cohorts, ISIS are the bad guys, murdering innocent Muslims. They behead prisoners, burn a Jordanian pilot alive etc. etc. What wild animals....the poor innocent Muslim populations are being set upon by the Jihadists of ISIS, who do not represent Islam and are hardly Muslims themselves....LOL!

Having lived in the Middle East for twenty seven years, none of the happenings in that area surprise me. What does surprise me is a media band of puppets that continuously insists on placing a politically correct spin on Islamic fundamentalism. After all, they say, the jihadists (not Muslims) only make up about 10% of Islam. The rest are all innocents and victims. Conveniently nobody mentions that 10% of 1.4 billion Muslims is 140 million crazed bloodletting rapists murderers and psychopaths running around on our planet. They are multiplying at an accelerated rate and raising more baby jihadists by the minute...."oh how cute."

But is it only the Jihadists? In 2009 then newly elected President Obama swaggered into Egypt and with rolled up sleeves and a sparkling smile promised the arab world a new beginning and a new era. After shaking hands warmly with his new best friend Housni (Mubarak), he set off to bow to the King of Saudi Arabia and on one knee explained to the Saudis that he was almost one of them. "I know Islam" he said. Then before one could utter "ISIS" Mr Obama was onstage at CNN, cheered on by the adoring commentators and saying "Mubarak must go!" Mubarak went and the new era promised by Obama was aptly named "The Arab spring". No point in debating the consequences except to say that the road to hell is paved with the graveyards of good intentions. 

Cheered on by the adoring masses, the US withdrew from Iraq without leaving adequate arrangements. The same is happening in Afghanistan. America is tired of making war. "The Inconvenient Truth" warned of things to come. "The void will be filled. Islam is your enemy. Its not enough to say you are not their enemy. The don't care If you don't fight them over there, they will be all around you." From 200,000 dead in Syria, "no-go zones in Europe", politically correct media, home made terrorism, civil war in Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan and Pakistan. Lets face it, Islam is imploding, the barbarians are at the gate and the mismanagement comes straight from a naive professor sitting in a White House building castles in the air and hoping for a legacy.

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
 - Lincoln

The silliest woman can manage a clever man; but it needs a very clever woman to manage a fool - Kipling

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.Russia is in crisis, but if anyone thinks Vladimir Putin will have his tail between his legs, they are mistaken. If anyone believes that the Ukraine sanctions had any effect on Russia, they are mistaken. If anything, all it did was add oil (?) to the fire. Russian troops are taking up positions in Eastern Ukraine accompanied by armour, artillery and missiles. They have taken control of the Donetsk airport and have laid down a bombardment of Mariupol, killing at least 30 "civilians". Add to that, in spite of an unbalanced budget and a crash in Russian capital markets, they have been selling oil and purchasing gold in large amounts. COMMENT: Red light blinking! Follow the money.

2. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called the leader of Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party, Alexis Tsipras, to congratulate him on his party's success in the country's Jan. 25 parliamentary elections, Reuters reported. This is an anti EU party and a possible indicator of whats happening in the peripheral countries of the EU. COMMENT: Orange light blinking!

3. So the mayor of Paris insists that "no-go zones" don't exist in Paris. Possibly she might want to check that theory by accompanying any Orthodox Jew to any of at least five areas in Paris without a police escort. This would be an excellent article for the satirical newspaper "Charlie Hebdo". COMMENT: The liberal media continues to push the theme that "Not all Muslims are terrorists". They are correct. However they should balance that view with "All terrorists are Muslim". 

4. Jared Dillian: I think the scary thing about present-day markets is that you have fewer experienced traders in charge. In an age where 50% of stock market volume is algorithmic, it’s young folks with math and physics degrees who are building these models and who have no sophisticated understanding of actual risk, the kind that cannot be mathematically modeled. They probably think they’re superior to people like me because they know math and I don’t, but when you’ve traded two of the biggest bear markets in the last century, you begin to learn that the market has a much bigger (and more malignant) imagination than you. COMMENT: There is no such thing as hi-tech methodology in markets. Anyone with healthy and logical instincts can invest in a market and make money.

5. The parade of top tech companies planting their flag in Israel continued Thursday with the report that online retail giant Amazon was set to buy Israeli semiconductor development firm Annapurna Labs. Located in Yokne’am, the company has been operating in stealth mode since 2011, and has 90 employees. COMMENT: GO ISRAEL!
Read more: http://www.timesofisrael.com/sources-amazon-set-to-buy-israeli-hardware-firm-for-350m/#ixzz3PeSALL9k

6. Raymond Ibrahim: On January 6, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi became the first Egyptian president ever to visit the St. Mark Cathedral during Coptic Christmas Eve Mass and offer his good wishes to the nation's Christian minority. Because Islamic law bans wishing non-Muslims well on their religious celebrations, all previous presidents -- Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak, and of course Morsi -- had never attended Coptic Christmas mass. COMMENT: A Major historical act in Egypt by a true Muslim Leader. Kolhakavod! Read more http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5125/el-sisi-coptic-christmas

7.. A rare frilled shark, whose species dates back 80 million years, was caught in a fishing trawler off Australia's coast. The shark, which reaches about 6 feet in length, has 300 needle-shaped teeth in 25 rows and it is believed to capture its prey by bending its body like a snake. This particular shark was nearly as large as they grow and caught at 2,296 feet below the surface, the association said. COMMENT: Take a look at this baby. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/01/21/like-horror-movie-rare-frilled-shark-caught-off-australia/

It often takes more courage to change one's opinion than to stick to it - Georg Lichtenberg

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect - Mark Twain