The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1."The yuan will keep depreciating as time goes by, so we should swap the money we have in hand into tangible assets," Li Xiaodong, chairman of Canaan Capital, tells his audience, while exhorting them to pull their money out of China while the going is still good and pour it into property in Spain and Portugal. Canaan Capital is one of a swarm of asset management firms leaping to profit from Beijing's latest policy headache: the swelling crowd of Chinese individuals and firms trying to get their money out of the world's second biggest economy as its growth slows to a quarter-century low. COMMENT: Another side effect of a slowing Chinese economy....the money is running. Follow the money.

2.Reuters: Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is expected to report a 1.3 percent increase in iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, its slowest ever and a far cry from the double-digit growth investors have come to expect. COMMENT: The competition is catching up with Apple. They will either have to lower prices or possibly introduce monthly payment plans in conjunction with the larger telephone co's.

3.Stratfor: India is the world's largest defense importer, accounting for 15 percent of all global imports over the past five years. However, the primary source of these weapons may soon change. Russia has long had privileged access to the Indian market, providing some 70 percent of India's weapons in volume over the last half decade. However, even as India invests heavily in upgrading and modernizing its armed forces, several pending deals between Moscow and New Delhi have stalled. COMMENT: As if Russia does not have enough problems.

4. Bloomberg: After years of lambasting other countries for helping rich Americans hide their money offshore, the U.S. is emerging as a leading tax and secrecy haven for rich foreigners. By resisting new global disclosure standards, the U.S. is creating a hot new market, becoming the go-to place to stash foreign wealth. Everyone from London lawyers to Swiss trust companies is getting in on the act, helping the world’s rich move accounts from places like the Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands to Nevada, Wyoming, and South Dakota. COMMENT: Clearly when you are king of the jungle, nobody argues with you. At the moment North America is the safest geopolitical continent to keep ones fortune safe...tax free!

5.According to an unnamed official, Sweden plans to expel up to 80,000 immigrants seeking asylum, AFP reported Jan. 27. Details are still emerging about the timing of the potential move, which was leaked to the public just a day after a Swedish aid worker was stabbed to death by a fifteen-year-old boy at the center for young refugees where she worked. Sweden's plan would fall in line with the actions of many European countries that have recently taken steps to limit or stop the flow of migrants across their borders. COMMENT: Looks like liberal Sweden are starting to feel the heat in the real world. Maybe they should ask Trudeau to take them.

6.Exactly five years ago the western liberal media and their messiah, Barack Obama, announced to the world that the great liberal revolutions of the Middle East had at long last begun. They labelled it with a romantic Hollywood title "The Arab Spring". That was then and this is now five years later. According to the UN, over 250,000 people have died in the Syrian civil war. Iraq has become a sectarian battleground on the verge of splitting into three parts. Yemen and Libya are failed states. The Islamic State has evolved from a terrorist group to a budding totalitarian religious state that controls wide swaths of territory and has thus far withstood all the hot air and airstrikes that the West and Russia have thrown at it. Millions of refugees of the conflicts are pouring into Europe and wherever else they can find safe harbour. COMMENT: Now thats one for the Obama legacy.

7.Shares of Italian banks continued to fall Jan. 28, a day after Italy reached a deal on debt with the European Commission, ANSA reported. By midday, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index had declined 5.3 percent. Trading of shares at a number of banks, including Banca Popolare di Miliano, UniCredit, Monte Paschi and Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna, was halted after declining 5 percent or more. COMMENT: Watch for more fallout in this crisis. Italy is much larger than Greece.

8.Dark clouds on the horizon. Informed (or possibly uninformed) sources are indicating that a Turkish - US initiative to invade Northern Syria is in the offing. The Turks would supply the ground forces while the US would provide air cover. The Turks would then join local militia and create a buffer against ISIS and against Kurdish forces also battling ISIS. The potential flashpoint is a possible Russian alliance with the Kurds and a confrontation with Turkish-US forces (BTW both sides battling ISIS). Comment: Quite the salad on this menu.

Politics is not a game for naive thinkers. You may go in as an idealist, but you certainly won't come out as one - Honeysuckle Weeks

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers -Edgar Fiedler

Beware when the Great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Preposterous Predictions 2016

If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good.      

Lets follow the money and the refugees

1.Stock markets and investors have become accustomed to markets continually recovering as a result of central bank manipulations. This will end in 2016 as markets come to terms with reality. The international credit bubble created as a result of the 2008 crisis will slowly disintegrate, punctured by collapsing raw materials demand and the demise of the oil market. The economic downturn will have a profound effect on our world and we predict a primary bear market in stocks and the continuation of the primary bull market in the US Dollar.

2.The slowdown in China will continue at an increased pace. Potentially China can go one of two ways. Either it breaks down into separately governed regions (Coastal vs Inland) or a ruthless dictatorship will attempt to control economic dissatisfaction within the Chinese population. The Chinese currency (the Yuan) will continue to be devalued in an attempt to jumpstart fading Chinese exports.

3.Historically the movement of refugees has created new geopolitical realities. The mass movement of refugees from unstable regions into the European Union is a geopolitical weapon of change that will create political, economic and violent chaos. Anti-immigration and anti-EU parties will strengthen and the movement towards fragmentation will be reflected in the value of the European symbol of unity, the Euro.

4.The Italian banking system will come under serious pressure this year accompanied by friction between old enemies France and Germany.  All it takes are a few terrorist attacks to understand that the so-called liberal European multi-culturism is just a cover for a deeper and darker psyche lurking in the shadows.

5.Russia will weather an economic meltdown (the Russian people are made of sterner stuff than most) as its ruble crumbles, but not without chaotic conditions amongst neighbouring countries who rely on Russian support (and energy) for their economic wellbeing. Russia will also have to overcome an AIDS epidemic of major proportions.

6. Apple will lose its shine as competing companies close the technological gap. They might even have to consider lowering their prices.

7.Regardless of who the candidates might be, the Republicans will take the White House this year. President Obama's naive foreign policy of shaking hands with a crocodile, his alienation of US allies, his creation of a massive debt bubble and his inability to unite the American people will signal the demise of big government for the near and distant future. As for his legacy....need I say more?

8.Climate change will have positive (yes, positive) and negative results as the trend continues. Countries like Canada and parts of the US and Europe will definitely have the advantage, whereas parts of the Middle East and Africa (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and others) will continue to pay the price.

9. Islam will continue to implode leading to a Sunni-Shiite face off. The violence being the product of dictatorships, religious fanaticism and the inability by over a billion people to compete economically. The stream of refugees will turn into a flood creating change wherever they flow.

10.North and South America will be the least affected by the refugee fallout, being continents geographically insulated from the deluge. Unless of course some politician decides to play saviour and opens the door.

11.Last year I wrote about Israel..."Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this." This year all that is needed is to "copy and paste"

Humanity has survived worse - Anonymous

Yesterday's answer has nothing to do with todays problem - Bill Gates

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. The European Union was created out of a desire to end hostilities between European countries. There do not appear to be grey areas in Europe with regards to war or peace. So this time they decided on a peaceful strategy where the gold at the end of the rainbow would be economic prosperity for all. After 2008 that all went south and I think it is fair to say that Europe was in crisis long before the refugee influx had any influence. The stream of refugees heading to Europe from the Middle East is turning into a river. Islam is imploding and the strategy of turning Europe into the new homeland for muslims is taking shape. The EU policy of open borders (The Schenghen treaty) appears to be crumbling. COMMENT: Folks this can no longer be termed a simple crisis. This is the onset of a revolution. Watch the Euro currency for further indications.

2.Michael Lewitt, author of The Credit Strategist: Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, the yield curve is flattening, ObamaCare is collapsing, global trade is plummeting and terrorism is spreading across the globe. The high yield credit markets are sending distress signals and 10-year swap spreads are negative. Energy companies are going out of business faster than you can say “frack” and trillions of dollars of European bonds are again trading at negative interest rates. The world is drowning in more than $200 trillion of debt that can never be repaid while European and Japanese central bankers promise to print more money and the Federal Reserve is being dragged kicking-and-screaming into raising interest rates by a paltry 25 basis points. COMMENT: Somewhere along the line markets will begin to reflect this reality. Be careful.

3.The Canadian Liberal government will not meet its self-imposed Dec. 31 deadline to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada. Instead, 10,000 will be transported to Canada by the end of 2015 and the rest will be resettled in the first two months of 2016.(If you believe that...good on you!) Priority for government refugees will be given to families, women at risk, members of sexual minorities and single men only if they are identified as members of an LGBT community. QUESTIONS: Is this not the definition of profiling? How will they identify Gay men or women at risk? How will they identify female suicide bombers in this privileged group? Will these poor people land up in Muslim ghettoes similar to those in Europe? How long will it take for Canadian Liberals to wake up and smell the coffee?

4.So Mister Looney Toons himself, Donald Trump saw thousands of arabs celebrating the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey. CNN is having a field day with Trump and his nonsense while ignoring the fact that Palestinians and arabs all over the Muslim world cheered the Paris attacks (Google it). QUESTION: Who is more delusional....Trump or CNN?

5.The Western media is aghast at what they have created and the cover up continues. Each time they discuss ISIS one gets the sense that they are terrified of this scum (and of course conveying this fear to their audience). Every atrocity committed by the savages is broadcast over and over thus spreading the ISIS message of fear and terror. Its also great for ratings and advertising. It's a scratch my back and I'll scratch yours type of thing. Strange bedfellows working hand in hand. Whatever happened to the good ol' Palestinian question and lambasting Israel? 

6. If anyone will take care of ISIS, it will be Putin and the Russians. They are not inhibited by the PC Obama style of warfare and (to boot), they have boots on the ground to supplement their other forces. Besides the Syrian army, there are now increasing numbers of Russian armed forces on the ground. COMMENT: If this French government hopes to have the slimmest possibility of survival come election time, they will have to adopt the Russian attitude to warfare.  

7. So the Turks thought they were sending a message to Putin by knocking down one of his planes. They say they warned the Russian plane ten times. According to most sources, the Russian plane was over Turkey for 17 seconds. Ten times? Stupid mistake. Russia has now suspended buying fruit and veggies from Turkey and is importing from Israel. On another note, there is excellent co-operation between the IAF and the the Russian air force. QUESTION: Does Israel see an alternative to Assad? I doubt it. So while Obama is pushing for elections in Syria (Elections...really?) he should be more worried about his legacy.

8.It is seldom that a large company in trouble can have a geopolitical effect. However this holds true for Volkswagen, the largest auto company in the world. Germany is Europe's engine, and its economy depends largely on its exports, which equal 45 percent of its gross domestic product. The automotive sector makes up 17 percent of Germany's exports, the highest portion from any single industry. Volkswagen's woes may expand to Germany's automotive sector, which may in turn expand to the German export machine, dimming the one bright light in Germany's plan for Europe — its own performance. COMMENT: Watch for contagion.


Feeling sorry for those who want you to feel sorry for them is like giving an alcoholic a gift certificate to a liquor store - Guy Finley

The Insurance Policy

The price of oil is down in the doldrums. Energy supply is abundant and will remain so while China is slowing down. From an American point of view with energy independence in sight and hurting over unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in strategy was required. The plan was to change strategic emphasis from the Middle East to South East Asia and Europe in order to balance the emerging power of China and Russia. In order to do this the US had to create a balance of power in the Mideast and hence everything"but the kitchen table" surrender to the Iranian Mullahs.  An amusing portrayal from an Iranian point of view can be seen at this youtube link.

https://youtu.be/PsaoSONHh9M

The unfortunate part about this deal by the Obama administration is the attempt to spin it as a successful and balanced win win deal when in fact it is a disorganized retreat from a problematic Middle East to facilitate more important objectives in South East Asia and Europe.

The good old days of OPEC and the grovelling to these arrogant folk are over. Saudi Arabia and Russia are in the process of flooding world markets with oil in what appears to be an unsuccessful attempt to defeat the US shale oil industry. They believe that by keeping the price low around $40 dollars a barrel or less, they can force the American shale oil industry into bankruptcy and thus keep their market share. A huge mistake. As a result of new and cleaner technologies the average break-even price of shale oil has dropped from $70 a barrel to about $50 a barrel However, the emergence of even more advanced technologies has some rigs producing at $10-$20 dollars a barrel. Bottom line, the energy crisis is over and we can look forward to an era of cheap energy for the foreseeable future.

With this narrative in mind, lets take a look at the Middle East. Not only are oil revenues dwindling, there are substantial water shortages in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Iraq. All these countries are embroiled in civil wars. As the water table continues to fall, things can only get worse. Economically, Islam is imploding and the trickle of refugees migrating to Europe has now become a stream soon to be a river and then a sea. This does not bode well for the region. The vacuum created by the US retreat has left the way open for Russia and China to wield their influence, while Sunni and Shiite extremists in the form of ISIS and Iran look to form caliphates.

So how do the Americans plan to guard their interests? The intention is to create a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and its allies, Turkey and Iran. While they keep each other busy, and with one eye on Israel, the US can move assets to South East Asia and Europe. An Israel, armed to the teeth would be the administration's insurance policy. This might explain why regardless of the cold political mood in Washington, the US continues to strengthen Israel militarily. Sounds logical but thats where it ends.

In order for a strategy to be functional it has to be efficiently implemented, otherwise Murphy's law (what can go wrong, will go wrong) takes over. "Efficient" is not a word that can be used to describe Obama and Kerry's negotiating skills. They naively assumed that as long as the players in the region were preoccupied with each other they would leave the US alone. Nothing could be further from reality. The imploding region is casting envious eyes towards the decadent societies of Europe and North America.

So while Barack Obama sings "Amazing Grace", these folks are chanting "Death to America" and preparing a Trojan Horse. The barbarians are no longer at the gate. They are amongst a population that still imagines that the Iranian deal will prevent a war that is already raging.  This is the unfortunate result of a leadership obsessed with political correctness, arrogance and legacy.

Just remember - when you think all is lost, the future remains - Bob Goddard

Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The headquarters of the BRICS New Development Bank opened in Shanghai on July 21, Tass reported. The BRICS trade group — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — reached an agreement to launch the new bank a year ago, with a starting capitalization of some $50 billion. Beijing sees the BRICS bank as yet another tool, along with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to pick away at the U.S.-dominated financial system. COMMENT: For the time being the USD is the king of currencies.

2.Russian authorities are planning on restoring civilian and defense infrastructure on the disputed Kuril Islands, which Japan also claims, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said July 23, Tass reported. The Kurils are key to protecting Russia's frontiers, said Medvedev, who plans to visit the islands at an undisclosed date and is encouraging other Cabinet ministers to do the same. COMMENT: The Chinese believe in economic power. The Russians believe in military power.

3.One in five Ottawa residents allegedly subscribed to adulterers' website Ashley Madison, making one of the world's coldest capitals among the hottest for extra-marital hookups. Some 189,810 Ashley Madison users were registered in Ottawa, a city with a population of about 883,000, making the capital No. 1 for philanderers in Canada and potentially the highest globally per capita, according to previously published figures from the Toronto-based company. COMMENT: Wow!

4.Tony Sagami: Xiaomi—pronounced SHOW-em—is a smartphone maker, and it happens to make the #1 bestselling smartphone in China. Yup, Xiaomi is even more popular than the Apple iPhone. The most recent market share numbers show that Xiaomi grabbed 15.9% of the mobile phone market in China during the second quarter of this year. In 2014, Xiaomi sold 420 million smartphones and pulled in $12 billion in revenues. COMMENT: This might explain the recent pressure on Apple shares.

5.The Russian economy shrank 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to official government figures released Aug. 10, the Moscow Times reported. At the same time on Aug. 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a crackdown on violations of the Kremlin's food sanctions against the European Union and the United States, during which some illegally imported food was destroyed. COMMENT: Why wouldn't they gift this food to the poor? All of the above spells two words...Trouble ahead!

6.China’s central bank devalued the yuan on Aug. 11, sparking a wave of selling in foreign exchange markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. Beijing pushed the daily fixing rate against the dollar down 1.9 percent — its biggest single-day loss in two decades — and it vowed to allow market forces a greater degree of influence over the currency.  COMMENT: The currency wars continue - another flicking red light.

7.Despite the chilly relations in the diplomatic arena, Turkey has become the most active destination for flights from Israel, according to an Israel Airports Authority (IAA) summary of the month of July, which was released Monday. The United States, which has been the most active destination of direct flights from Israel for years, fell to the third place, while Greece went up to the second place. July 2015 was a record-breaking month for Israeli tourists departing on vacations, and it looks like August will see that record broken once more, with 2015 becoming an overall record year for outgoing Israeli tourism. COMMENT: The strong Israeli Shekel (stronger than both the USD and Euro) is sending Israelis abroad in droves, while incoming tourism is faltering.

If your horse dies get off - Old business axiom

Since life is growth and motion, a fixed point of view kills anybody who has one - Brooks Atkinson

The Winds of Change

I have written many times that the top priority for the US is the strategic and military control of sea lanes that provide freedom of trade vital to US economic interests. For example, in the last half century energy has been of vital importance to the US and world economy and therefore the US has military bases and ports along these routes. They use their massive sea and air power to patrol different trade routes. To emphasize the point, the military of the United States is deployed in more than 150 countries around the world. Now that energy is in abundant over supply, we continue to follow the money. 

In a previous blog (http://www.inctruth.blogspot.ca/2015/03/the-balance-of-power-part-one.html) I wrote: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. When one adds the undeniable fact that the US is energy  independent, it makes sense to beat a retreat from the failed policies in the troublesome Middle East and to confront the economic and military power of the expanding China/Russia alliance. The Iranian deal was meant to facilitate this change in policy. Typically the deal has been presented as a victory of sorts, when in fact it was a monumental retreat of US leadership in the region.

More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through choke points in the South China Sea and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. The oil transported through the Malacca Strait from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia through the South China Sea, is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and fifteen times the amount that transits the Panama Canal. Roughly two thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60 percent of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and 80 percent of China’s crude oil imports come through the South China Sea. Whereas in the Persian Gulf only energy is transported, in the South China Sea you have energy, finished goods, and unfinished goods. Furthermore Ninety percent of Chinese exports pass through these choke points, mostly controlled by US allies 

In addition to centrality of location, the South China Sea has proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels, and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. 

So while attention is on the Iran deal, the following is taking place:

1.Leaders from the Russian and Chinese navies signed a protocol July 17 on joint naval drills to be held at the end of August in the Sea of Japan, Tass reported. The maneuvers will for the first time involve a joint amphibious assault drill in Russia’s Primorsky territory and include the participation of carrier-based aircraft, a Russian Pacific Fleet spokesman said. In May, the two countries held joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean.

2.The Philippine military announced that it would hold joint naval drills with Japan from June 22-26. Just four days before the announcement, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III concluded a state visit to Japan. Aquino announced that the Philippines and Japan were ready to begin talks on a visiting forces agreement. The Philippines is eager to bring in as many outside parties as possible to bolster its position in its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.

3.Japan’s ruling coalition pushed major security legislation through a lower house panel July 15, setting the bills up for passage by the lower house as early as July 16, Kyodo reported. The legislation would broaden the scope of overseas operations by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, marking the most dramatic shift in Japanese security policy since World War II. 

4.Japan may conduct patrols and surveillance activities in the South China Sea to counter a China that is likely to become increasingly assertive in the region, Japan’s top military commander, Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano, said in a speech July 16 during a visit to Washington, Reuters reported. 

5.China has almost finished building a 3,000-metre-long airstrip on one of its artificial islands in the disputed Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea, according to a report from Reuters. The airstrip, will be long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft and may be operational within months.

Its interesting how this flashpoint is developing under our noses while the western media is obsessing over Donald Trump and co.

“There are those whose primary ability is to spin wheels of manipulation. It is their second skin and without these spinning wheels, they simply do not know how to function. They are like toys on wheels of manipulation and control. If you remove one of the wheels, they'll never be able to feel secure, be whole.” ― C. JoyBell C. 

Watching foreign affairs is sometimes like watching a magician; the eye is drawn to the hand performing the dramatic flourishes, leaving the other hand - the one doing the important job - unnoticed. - David K. Shipler

When the oak is felled the whole forest echoes with it fall, but a hundred acorns are sown in silence by an unnoticed breeze - Thomas Carlyle

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The nuclear deal with Iran is not built on trust, U.S. President Barack Obama said at a July 14 news conference, but on verification, and it meets all the bottom lines from the framework deal reached previously. The United States negotiated from a position of strength and principle, Obama said, and every pathway to a nuclear weapon has been cut off. COMMENT: Obama says....LOL

2.JUBA, South Sudan — Warring forces in South Sudan have carried out horrific crimes against children, including castration, rape and tying them together before slitting their throats, the UN has said. “Survivors report that boys have been castrated and left to bleed to death… girls as young as eight have been gang raped and murdered,” UN children’s agency UNICEF chief Anthony Lake said in a statement released earlier this week.
“Children have been tied together before their attackers slit their throats… others have been thrown into burning buildings.” COMMENT: This is not news on CNN...and anyway, Israel will ultimately be held responsible.

3. In 2002, Montreal’s Concordia University was home to infamous riots preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from speaking. In 2015, the same university hosted the largest annual international academic gathering for the field of Israel Studies. What a difference 13 years makes. Many of Israel’s considerable advances for the benefit of humankind were showcased earlier this month during the 31st Annual Meeting of the Association for Israel Studies (AIS) at Concordia. Outgoing AIS President Menachem Hofnung called this year’s event “the largest assembly I have presided over.” COMMENT: Go Concordia! Read more http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2015/6/22/israel-studies-confab-gives-canadian-university-new-narrative-on-jewish-state#.VYrWQGBYX5S=

4.The No. 1 U.S. bank by assets JP Morgan revealed 2015 second-quarter earnings per share of $1.54 a share on revenue of $24.53 billion. For the full year of 2008 net income was $5.6 billion and 4th quarter net income only $700 million. COMMENT: Anybody remember the Obama speeches on the big banks getting smaller or perhaps the speeches on Wall Street and main Street? So Wall Street rose 300% and the rich got richer while Main Street....he must have been referring to Baltimore, Ferguson and other ghettoes in the US.

5.New York City reached a $5.9 million settlement Monday with the family of Eric Garner, whose death after he was placed in a chokehold by a police officer sparked a public outcry, officials said. COMMENT: The death of Eric garner was widely reported and this deal.....obviously not newsworthy. 

6.Tony Sagami: You can gnash your teeth over the Greek debt crisis or the Chinese stock meltdown, but one economic sure-thing you should be watching is the collapsing fundamentals of the transportation industry. More problematic for the stock market is that the profit outlook for transportation stocks, particularly ocean shipping companies, is horrible. Drewry Maritime Research estimates that the break-even rate for most container ships is $800 per TEU on the Asia-Europe route. The price today is $243. COMMENT: These numbers are a red light for investors. Read more: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/connecting-the-dots/sinking-ships-train-wrecks-and-empty-trucks-my-case-against-transportation

7.The Greeks voted "no" against austerity. Their government, after supporting the "no" vote then proceeded to ignore the will of the people and approved the same austerity package. Germany, using all its power then humiliated the Greeks and presented what is basically a "takeover" package which will now go to a vote in the Greek parliament. The cat is amongst the pigeons. George Friedman: The specifics are less important than the fact that Greece invoked its sovereign right, and Germany responded by enforcing an agreement that compelled the Greeks to cede those rights. 

8. George Friedman (continued): In World War II, the Germans occupied Greece. As in much of the rest of Europe, the memory of that occupation is now in the country's DNA. This will be seen as the return of German occupation, and opponents of the deal will certainly use that argument. The manner in which the deal was made and extended by the Germans to provide outside control will resurrect historical memories of German occupation. It has already started. The aggressive inflexibility of the Germans can be understood as an attitude motivated by German fears, but then Germany has always been a frightened country responding with bravado and self-confidence. Read more: https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/empire-strikes-back-germany-and-greek-crisis?login=1

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool - Richard P. Feynman

The serpent, the king, the tiger, the stinging wasp, the small child, the dog owned by other people, and the fool: these seven ought not to be awakened from sleep - Chanakya