Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Follow The Money

1.Wheat prices jumped on Wednesday, taking the week's gains to 17%, an ascent that threatens to put fresh pressure on fragile Middle East governments that import the grain to feed their people.Wet weather in the U.S. and dryness in Western Europe are driving the recent rise. Wheat futures jumped 53 cents, or 7%, to $8.17 per bushel Wednesday, the biggest single-day dollar gain in more than seven months, and are now up 91% in less than a year. Tunisians eat more wheat than anyone on the planet: 478 pounds per person a year, compared to 177 pounds in the U.S. Egyptians and Algerians also eat more than twice as much wheat as Americans, says the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

COMMENT: And this is not a Mcdonalds success story.

2.China is now the world's leading gold bug. From the WSJ: Chinese investors are snapping up gold bars and coins, buying more than ever before in the first quarter of 2011 and overtaking Indian buyers as the world's biggest purchasers of the metal. A growing middle-class in China is raising the appetite for gold there. China's investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tons in the first three months of the year, outpacing India's modest rise to 85.6 tons, the World Gold Council said in its quarterly report on Thursday. China now accounts for 25% of gold investment demand, compared with India's 23%.

COMMENT: We unashamedly state our belief that gold is the only honest currency.

3.Robert Shiller sees no reason to believe in a resurgence of consumer spending, considering that the real unemployment rate, by his calculation, is 15.9 percent, and housing is headed south again. "'Even at this point, with the recession technically over, we are in the worst financial shape we've been in since the Great Depression,” he told an audience in Las Vegas, reported InvestmentNews.com. Shiller’s unemployment figure counts unemployed, underemployed, and people forced into early retirement by the economy. Other
economists estimate that real unemployment figure to be much higher.

COMMENT: Its time to call a spade a spade.

4.MOSCOW—In an unexpected move, Russia's central bank raised its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point Monday, surprising markets by tightening monetary policy for the second consecutive month.

COMMENT:Interest rate rises and belt tightening across the globe, while US rates remain low, create the basis for further devaluation of the US Dollar. As the USD weakens so US debt lessens and equity markets stabilise. So far so good.

5.Rare earths came under the spotlight two years ago after China started to reduce export quotas. Beijing's influence aroused concern when exports of rare earths to Japan were temporarily suspended after a diplomatic dispute. China has continued clamping down on production and sale of rare earth elements, citing a need to clean up highly polluting production processes and to stop illegal exports. Statistics collected in Hong Kong show exports of rare earth metals have shrunk in half over the past year. Over the same period, the value of exports has soared to more than $121,000 per tonne, a 10-fold jump from a year ago..

COMMENT: Please read "The Middle East has oil, China has Rare Earths" on this blog from October 15th.
http://inctruth.blogspot.com/2010/10/have-you-ever-heard-of-tjhe-islands-in.html

Faced with choice between changing one's mind or proving there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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