The Insurance Policy

The price of oil is down in the doldrums. Energy supply is abundant and will remain so while China is slowing down. From an American point of view with energy independence in sight and hurting over unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in strategy was required. The plan was to change strategic emphasis from the Middle East to South East Asia and Europe in order to balance the emerging power of China and Russia. In order to do this the US had to create a balance of power in the Mideast and hence everything"but the kitchen table" surrender to the Iranian Mullahs.  An amusing portrayal from an Iranian point of view can be seen at this youtube link.

https://youtu.be/PsaoSONHh9M

The unfortunate part about this deal by the Obama administration is the attempt to spin it as a successful and balanced win win deal when in fact it is a disorganized retreat from a problematic Middle East to facilitate more important objectives in South East Asia and Europe.

The good old days of OPEC and the grovelling to these arrogant folk are over. Saudi Arabia and Russia are in the process of flooding world markets with oil in what appears to be an unsuccessful attempt to defeat the US shale oil industry. They believe that by keeping the price low around $40 dollars a barrel or less, they can force the American shale oil industry into bankruptcy and thus keep their market share. A huge mistake. As a result of new and cleaner technologies the average break-even price of shale oil has dropped from $70 a barrel to about $50 a barrel However, the emergence of even more advanced technologies has some rigs producing at $10-$20 dollars a barrel. Bottom line, the energy crisis is over and we can look forward to an era of cheap energy for the foreseeable future.

With this narrative in mind, lets take a look at the Middle East. Not only are oil revenues dwindling, there are substantial water shortages in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Iraq. All these countries are embroiled in civil wars. As the water table continues to fall, things can only get worse. Economically, Islam is imploding and the trickle of refugees migrating to Europe has now become a stream soon to be a river and then a sea. This does not bode well for the region. The vacuum created by the US retreat has left the way open for Russia and China to wield their influence, while Sunni and Shiite extremists in the form of ISIS and Iran look to form caliphates.

So how do the Americans plan to guard their interests? The intention is to create a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and its allies, Turkey and Iran. While they keep each other busy, and with one eye on Israel, the US can move assets to South East Asia and Europe. An Israel, armed to the teeth would be the administration's insurance policy. This might explain why regardless of the cold political mood in Washington, the US continues to strengthen Israel militarily. Sounds logical but thats where it ends.

In order for a strategy to be functional it has to be efficiently implemented, otherwise Murphy's law (what can go wrong, will go wrong) takes over. "Efficient" is not a word that can be used to describe Obama and Kerry's negotiating skills. They naively assumed that as long as the players in the region were preoccupied with each other they would leave the US alone. Nothing could be further from reality. The imploding region is casting envious eyes towards the decadent societies of Europe and North America.

So while Barack Obama sings "Amazing Grace", these folks are chanting "Death to America" and preparing a Trojan Horse. The barbarians are no longer at the gate. They are amongst a population that still imagines that the Iranian deal will prevent a war that is already raging.  This is the unfortunate result of a leadership obsessed with political correctness, arrogance and legacy.

Just remember - when you think all is lost, the future remains - Bob Goddard

Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The headquarters of the BRICS New Development Bank opened in Shanghai on July 21, Tass reported. The BRICS trade group — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — reached an agreement to launch the new bank a year ago, with a starting capitalization of some $50 billion. Beijing sees the BRICS bank as yet another tool, along with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to pick away at the U.S.-dominated financial system. COMMENT: For the time being the USD is the king of currencies.

2.Russian authorities are planning on restoring civilian and defense infrastructure on the disputed Kuril Islands, which Japan also claims, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said July 23, Tass reported. The Kurils are key to protecting Russia's frontiers, said Medvedev, who plans to visit the islands at an undisclosed date and is encouraging other Cabinet ministers to do the same. COMMENT: The Chinese believe in economic power. The Russians believe in military power.

3.One in five Ottawa residents allegedly subscribed to adulterers' website Ashley Madison, making one of the world's coldest capitals among the hottest for extra-marital hookups. Some 189,810 Ashley Madison users were registered in Ottawa, a city with a population of about 883,000, making the capital No. 1 for philanderers in Canada and potentially the highest globally per capita, according to previously published figures from the Toronto-based company. COMMENT: Wow!

4.Tony Sagami: Xiaomi—pronounced SHOW-em—is a smartphone maker, and it happens to make the #1 bestselling smartphone in China. Yup, Xiaomi is even more popular than the Apple iPhone. The most recent market share numbers show that Xiaomi grabbed 15.9% of the mobile phone market in China during the second quarter of this year. In 2014, Xiaomi sold 420 million smartphones and pulled in $12 billion in revenues. COMMENT: This might explain the recent pressure on Apple shares.

5.The Russian economy shrank 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to official government figures released Aug. 10, the Moscow Times reported. At the same time on Aug. 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a crackdown on violations of the Kremlin's food sanctions against the European Union and the United States, during which some illegally imported food was destroyed. COMMENT: Why wouldn't they gift this food to the poor? All of the above spells two words...Trouble ahead!

6.China’s central bank devalued the yuan on Aug. 11, sparking a wave of selling in foreign exchange markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. Beijing pushed the daily fixing rate against the dollar down 1.9 percent — its biggest single-day loss in two decades — and it vowed to allow market forces a greater degree of influence over the currency.  COMMENT: The currency wars continue - another flicking red light.

7.Despite the chilly relations in the diplomatic arena, Turkey has become the most active destination for flights from Israel, according to an Israel Airports Authority (IAA) summary of the month of July, which was released Monday. The United States, which has been the most active destination of direct flights from Israel for years, fell to the third place, while Greece went up to the second place. July 2015 was a record-breaking month for Israeli tourists departing on vacations, and it looks like August will see that record broken once more, with 2015 becoming an overall record year for outgoing Israeli tourism. COMMENT: The strong Israeli Shekel (stronger than both the USD and Euro) is sending Israelis abroad in droves, while incoming tourism is faltering.

If your horse dies get off - Old business axiom

Since life is growth and motion, a fixed point of view kills anybody who has one - Brooks Atkinson

The Winds of Change

I have written many times that the top priority for the US is the strategic and military control of sea lanes that provide freedom of trade vital to US economic interests. For example, in the last half century energy has been of vital importance to the US and world economy and therefore the US has military bases and ports along these routes. They use their massive sea and air power to patrol different trade routes. To emphasize the point, the military of the United States is deployed in more than 150 countries around the world. Now that energy is in abundant over supply, we continue to follow the money. 

In a previous blog (http://www.inctruth.blogspot.ca/2015/03/the-balance-of-power-part-one.html) I wrote: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved beyond a shadow of doubt that The US did not have the military strength to impose their will on anyone in this region. Tough to read, but never the less true. When one adds the undeniable fact that the US is energy  independent, it makes sense to beat a retreat from the failed policies in the troublesome Middle East and to confront the economic and military power of the expanding China/Russia alliance. The Iranian deal was meant to facilitate this change in policy. Typically the deal has been presented as a victory of sorts, when in fact it was a monumental retreat of US leadership in the region.

More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through choke points in the South China Sea and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. The oil transported through the Malacca Strait from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia through the South China Sea, is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and fifteen times the amount that transits the Panama Canal. Roughly two thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60 percent of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and 80 percent of China’s crude oil imports come through the South China Sea. Whereas in the Persian Gulf only energy is transported, in the South China Sea you have energy, finished goods, and unfinished goods. Furthermore Ninety percent of Chinese exports pass through these choke points, mostly controlled by US allies 

In addition to centrality of location, the South China Sea has proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels, and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. 

So while attention is on the Iran deal, the following is taking place:

1.Leaders from the Russian and Chinese navies signed a protocol July 17 on joint naval drills to be held at the end of August in the Sea of Japan, Tass reported. The maneuvers will for the first time involve a joint amphibious assault drill in Russia’s Primorsky territory and include the participation of carrier-based aircraft, a Russian Pacific Fleet spokesman said. In May, the two countries held joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean.

2.The Philippine military announced that it would hold joint naval drills with Japan from June 22-26. Just four days before the announcement, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III concluded a state visit to Japan. Aquino announced that the Philippines and Japan were ready to begin talks on a visiting forces agreement. The Philippines is eager to bring in as many outside parties as possible to bolster its position in its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.

3.Japan’s ruling coalition pushed major security legislation through a lower house panel July 15, setting the bills up for passage by the lower house as early as July 16, Kyodo reported. The legislation would broaden the scope of overseas operations by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, marking the most dramatic shift in Japanese security policy since World War II. 

4.Japan may conduct patrols and surveillance activities in the South China Sea to counter a China that is likely to become increasingly assertive in the region, Japan’s top military commander, Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano, said in a speech July 16 during a visit to Washington, Reuters reported. 

5.China has almost finished building a 3,000-metre-long airstrip on one of its artificial islands in the disputed Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea, according to a report from Reuters. The airstrip, will be long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft and may be operational within months.

Its interesting how this flashpoint is developing under our noses while the western media is obsessing over Donald Trump and co.

“There are those whose primary ability is to spin wheels of manipulation. It is their second skin and without these spinning wheels, they simply do not know how to function. They are like toys on wheels of manipulation and control. If you remove one of the wheels, they'll never be able to feel secure, be whole.” ― C. JoyBell C. 

Watching foreign affairs is sometimes like watching a magician; the eye is drawn to the hand performing the dramatic flourishes, leaving the other hand - the one doing the important job - unnoticed. - David K. Shipler

When the oak is felled the whole forest echoes with it fall, but a hundred acorns are sown in silence by an unnoticed breeze - Thomas Carlyle

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.The nuclear deal with Iran is not built on trust, U.S. President Barack Obama said at a July 14 news conference, but on verification, and it meets all the bottom lines from the framework deal reached previously. The United States negotiated from a position of strength and principle, Obama said, and every pathway to a nuclear weapon has been cut off. COMMENT: Obama says....LOL

2.JUBA, South Sudan — Warring forces in South Sudan have carried out horrific crimes against children, including castration, rape and tying them together before slitting their throats, the UN has said. “Survivors report that boys have been castrated and left to bleed to death… girls as young as eight have been gang raped and murdered,” UN children’s agency UNICEF chief Anthony Lake said in a statement released earlier this week.
“Children have been tied together before their attackers slit their throats… others have been thrown into burning buildings.” COMMENT: This is not news on CNN...and anyway, Israel will ultimately be held responsible.

3. In 2002, Montreal’s Concordia University was home to infamous riots preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from speaking. In 2015, the same university hosted the largest annual international academic gathering for the field of Israel Studies. What a difference 13 years makes. Many of Israel’s considerable advances for the benefit of humankind were showcased earlier this month during the 31st Annual Meeting of the Association for Israel Studies (AIS) at Concordia. Outgoing AIS President Menachem Hofnung called this year’s event “the largest assembly I have presided over.” COMMENT: Go Concordia! Read more http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2015/6/22/israel-studies-confab-gives-canadian-university-new-narrative-on-jewish-state#.VYrWQGBYX5S=

4.The No. 1 U.S. bank by assets JP Morgan revealed 2015 second-quarter earnings per share of $1.54 a share on revenue of $24.53 billion. For the full year of 2008 net income was $5.6 billion and 4th quarter net income only $700 million. COMMENT: Anybody remember the Obama speeches on the big banks getting smaller or perhaps the speeches on Wall Street and main Street? So Wall Street rose 300% and the rich got richer while Main Street....he must have been referring to Baltimore, Ferguson and other ghettoes in the US.

5.New York City reached a $5.9 million settlement Monday with the family of Eric Garner, whose death after he was placed in a chokehold by a police officer sparked a public outcry, officials said. COMMENT: The death of Eric garner was widely reported and this deal.....obviously not newsworthy. 

6.Tony Sagami: You can gnash your teeth over the Greek debt crisis or the Chinese stock meltdown, but one economic sure-thing you should be watching is the collapsing fundamentals of the transportation industry. More problematic for the stock market is that the profit outlook for transportation stocks, particularly ocean shipping companies, is horrible. Drewry Maritime Research estimates that the break-even rate for most container ships is $800 per TEU on the Asia-Europe route. The price today is $243. COMMENT: These numbers are a red light for investors. Read more: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/connecting-the-dots/sinking-ships-train-wrecks-and-empty-trucks-my-case-against-transportation

7.The Greeks voted "no" against austerity. Their government, after supporting the "no" vote then proceeded to ignore the will of the people and approved the same austerity package. Germany, using all its power then humiliated the Greeks and presented what is basically a "takeover" package which will now go to a vote in the Greek parliament. The cat is amongst the pigeons. George Friedman: The specifics are less important than the fact that Greece invoked its sovereign right, and Germany responded by enforcing an agreement that compelled the Greeks to cede those rights. 

8. George Friedman (continued): In World War II, the Germans occupied Greece. As in much of the rest of Europe, the memory of that occupation is now in the country's DNA. This will be seen as the return of German occupation, and opponents of the deal will certainly use that argument. The manner in which the deal was made and extended by the Germans to provide outside control will resurrect historical memories of German occupation. It has already started. The aggressive inflexibility of the Germans can be understood as an attitude motivated by German fears, but then Germany has always been a frightened country responding with bravado and self-confidence. Read more: https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/empire-strikes-back-germany-and-greek-crisis?login=1

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool - Richard P. Feynman

The serpent, the king, the tiger, the stinging wasp, the small child, the dog owned by other people, and the fool: these seven ought not to be awakened from sleep - Chanakya

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1.(Reuters) - The death toll from an air strike by U.S.-led forces on the northern Syrian province of Aleppo on Friday has risen to 52 including seven children, a group monitoring the conflict said on Saturday. The British-based Observatory for Human Rights said the air raid on Friday had mistakenly struck civilians in a village on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River in Aleppo, killing members of at least six families. COMMENT: Interesting how none of this is reported by the same pro-Obama media that castigated Israel during the Gaza war. Apparently the Hollywood type self-pity festival in Baltimore is more newsworthy than a bunch of innocent Arab families who were not killed by Israelis. 

2.Quietly and without any fanfare, ISIS is taking baby steps in Gaza. "An explosion damaged a Hamas security headquarters building in Gaza City on May 4, the Daily Star reported. The explosion followed a message from an anti-Hamas radical Islam group, called the Supporters of ISIS in Jerusalem, demanding the release of jihadist prisoners within 72 hours or an attack would be imminent." COMMENT: Imagine that....ISIS vs Hamas in Gaza. What say you John Kerry? And now this same ISIS affiliated group is firing rockets at Israel....

3.Invest Yourself: "The all seeing, all knowing grand poobah's which we affectionately call the Federal Reserve have told us for years that they, and ONLY they know how to steer an economy to prosperity.  Over the years they've hiked interest rates, cut interest rates, printed money, bought back Treasuries, "twisted", QE'd and God only knows what else. So, how'd they do? Today we learned that the first quarter GDP came in at a whopping 0.2%.(Now revised to -0.7%). Yes folks, after all the machinations, after all the huff and bluff, after all the trillions, the economy missed being negative by two tenths of ONE point. Bravo!  What a performance!   If this band of criminals actually had to work for someone and this is the performance they achieve they'd have been fired years ago." COMMENT: Truth be told, first quarter GDP in the US is usually weak. Let's see how the second quarter goes.

4.TOI: Newly crowned Saudi King Salman has refused an invitation to attend a landmark summit hosted by President Barack Obama, amid angst over US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Obama had invited six Gulf kings, emirs and sultans to the presidential retreat at Camp David, seeking to shore up wavering trust while Washington negotiates with regional power Tehran. Obama’s plans now lie in tatters, with only two heads of state slated to attend the Thursday meeting. COMMENT: The perfect storm cloud on the horizon continues to grow for this president.

5.Turkey’s lira weakened to an all-time low and stocks plunged after voters denied the ruling AK Party (Erdogan) a majority government for the first time since 2002. The currency tumbled as much as 5.2 percent and the benchmark stock index dropped the most in two years. The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, won 40.9 percent of the vote, giving it 258 seats in parliament, according to preliminary results from the state-run news agency. It needed 276 to form a single-party government. COMMENT: A round of burgers and fries for all while we watch the slow (the slower, the better) demise of this anti-semite.

6. Bloomberg: The U.S. has taken Russia’s crown as the world’s biggest oil and natural-gas producer, illustrating the seismic shifts in the global energy landscape caused by America’s shale fields. U.S. oil production rose to an all-time high last year, gaining 1.6 million barrels a day, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy released on Wednesday. Gas output also rose, putting America ahead of Russia as a producer of the hydrocarbons combined. Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-shale-oil-boom-grinding-080857319.html

7.Yahoo: The shale oil boom that turned the U.S. into the world’s largest fuel producer and brought $3 gasoline back to America’s pumps is grinding to a halt. Crude output from the prolific tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’s Eagle Ford shale will shrink 1.3 percent to 5.58 million barrels a day this month, based on Energy Information Administration estimates. It’ll drop further in July to 5.49 million, the lowest level since January, the agency said Monday. Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-shale-oil-boom-grinding-080857319.html COMMENT: Hmmm...a flare-up between the Saudis and Iran has the potential to create havoc in world markets....just saying.

The future was plump with promise - Maya Angelou

It is the business of the future to be dangerous- Alfred North Whitehead 

Beware when the great god lets loose a thinker on this planet - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.

1. David Horovitz: But the deal is far worse than even our relentlessly lowered expectations had given us reason to anticipate. The Arak heavy water plant is not to be dismantled. Why not? Because this was the best deal we could get. The Fordo enrichment facility, built secretly into a mountain, is not to be shuttered. Why not? Because this was the best deal we could get. Thousands of centrifuges are to be allowed to keep on spinning. Thousands more will remain intact. For heaven’s sake, why? Because this was the best deal we could get. All this according to the — so far — undisputed elements of the unsigned agreement. COMMENT: The Obama-Kerry Implosion. The quiet whisperings in the Iranian Caliphate have changed to raucous derision. They are already cheating. Read more http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-unfolding-farce-of-obamas-deal-with-iran/#ixzz3Wjbw0Pii

2.Job approval ratings for President Obama have dropped among American Jews from 61 percent to 50 percent since the start of 2015, a new Gallup poll found.
The American Jews interviewed for the poll released this week gave Obama a 50 percent approval rating in March, dropping from 52 percent in February and 61 percent in January.
The poll results were based on interviews with 1,022 Americans who identified themselves as Jewish and conducted as part of daily tracking from January through the end of March. 
COMMENT: In the last election, 70% of American Jews voted Obama. Maybe some are beginning to realize that this man's naivety, his personal likes and dislikes and his non-existent red lines are facilitating a dangerous security environment for Americans at home and worldwide.

3. NYT: The White House relented on Tuesday and said President Obama would sign a compromise bill giving Congress a voice on the proposed nuclear accord with Iran as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in rare unanimous agreement, moved the legislation to the full Senate for a vote.  White House officials insisted they extracted crucial last-minute concessions. Republicans — and many Democrats — said the president simply got overrun.
COMMENT: Music to my ears.

4.Stratfor: Several events in Gaza in recent months have indicated the possible presence of Islamic State affiliates. The highest-profile incident was the arrest of a Salafist cleric on April 6 by Hamas' security forces. More interesting is the series of attacks that preceded and followed the arrest. A number of improvised explosive devices have been set off around Gaza City, typically causing minimal damage and no casualties. COMMENT: We at the Gallery and the IDF wish ISIS the best of success in Gaza. Read more: https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/hamas-cracks-down-islamic-state-gaza

5. NYT:  As the Russians gradually assumed control of Uranium One in three separate transactions from 2009 to 2013, Canadian records show, a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors. And shortly after the Russians announced their intention to acquire a majority stake in Uranium One, Mr. Clinton received $500,000 for a Moscow speech from a Russian investment bank with links to the Kremlin that was promoting Uranium One stock. Whether the donations played any role in the approval of the uranium deal is unknown. COMMENT: Does this pass a smell test....I doubt it. Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html

6. BO: “They (the Dems) don’t know what they’re talking about.” [TPP] is the most progressive trade agreement in our history,” he said. “It’s got strong provisions for works strong provisions for the environment. And unlike some past trade agreements, all these provisions are actually enforceable. COMMENT: This agreement is strongly supported by the Republicans. What happened to the 99 percent? Who remembers Occupy Wall Street or the unions and the poor masses who rushed to support their messiah? Obama printed trillions, Wall Street made a fortune, the banks are coining it and the poor...well they are at war with the cops and getting poorer. As for the almost non existent middle class and small business? They just have to suck it up. The social wars have just begun. Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102618055

A lie makes it all the way around the world and the truth – which is often less interesting than the lie – makes it to the bottom of a Google search. 
Alan Dershowitz  

Preposterous Predictions...Follow Up

Sunday, January 18, 2015 - How are we doing today 19th April 2015?

Preposterous Predictions
If we get 7 out of 10 predictions correct that would be pretty good!

1.The Middle East will continue to degenerate into the wild east, with Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and a surprising erosion in Turkey. Sunni and Shiite extremists will battle it out with each other and with secular muslims. To add a little spice to this Jihadist salad, they will target a confused western world with growing appetites the way a predator senses fear and goes for the jugular.

2. And since misery loves company, Africa as a continent will have to contend with a rising Islamic wave (Boko Harem, al Shabaab and Ansar al sharia to name a few) together with tribal rivalries, water and food shortages. Not a pretty sight. Anyone contemplating going on Safari, should stick to South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Tanzania.

3.We will witness the demise of OPEC as energy markets wallow in oversupply interrupted by the occasional civil war. Even countries will go belly up, the most conspicuous being Venezuela closely followed by Libya and Nigeria.

4. The US Iran nuclear negotiations will draw to a successful close, and most sanctions will be lifted. That might sound like good news to Iran but they will find that three things cannot be hidden...the sun, the moon and the truth. In this case the elephant in the room is that by adding Iran's oil supply to the present glut, it will cause a further deterioration in the price. Iran needs oil at $131 dollars a barrel to balance even the most meagre budget. Conclusion easily drawn.

5. Russia and Putin will survive the oil crisis, the Russian people being made of sterner stuff than most. Russia and China will form the baby nucleus of an alliance which will in time challenge the US in many spheres. China will use its huge foreign currency reserves to create new partnerships in emerging markets, notably in countries badly hit by the oil and commodities crises. They are already thinking ahead to the next cycle.

6. Europe has reached the point of no return. Create liquidity or slip into recession. Recession could easily exacerbate the already growing anti-immigration, anti EU groups, whose political power is now something that is of concern to the powers that may be.

7.The two major macroeconomic drivers for 2015 will be the rising US dollar and a global currency war. Central banks, whom until now have worked in tandem will diverge into a "every man for himself" mode, while slowing economies with large US denominated debt will struggle to repay that debt, pressuring an international USD credit bubble already under strain.

8. The US federal reserve who in the minds of many can do no wrong, will find themselves in a quandary as to dealing with the strong USD and raising of US Interest rates, while worldwide inflation flirts with a negative figure. In 2015, we will learn that the markets are bigger and more powerful than even the vaunted Federal Reserve.

9. Many banking systems will be tottering as 2015 unfolds (especially Russia), markets will be volatile, as already witnessed and protection of principle, rather than creation of profits should be the name of the game as regards portfolio management. With so much uncertainty, we make a wild prediction that gold will hit at least $1800 an ounce.

10. President Obama will use the coming period to try and get done what he was unable to accomplish while in control of both houses of congress. The impending collapse of the shale oil boom will dampen some of the economic achievements of his presidency and as for foreign policy achievements....I'm sure he would prefer to forget his creation of an "arab spring".

11. Israel is always at number 11 and outside the ten forecasts. Why you may ask? Israel from year to year remains a shining light to the world, regardless of the tinted sunglasses with which some may view this.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't - Alan Greenspan.

Weather forecast for tonight: dark - George Carlin